Analytical StructureAnalytical Structure

1.1. Origins, Objectives, DoctrineOrigins, Objectives, Doctrine

2.2. Leadership, Leadership StructureLeadership, Leadership Structure

3.3. Support StructureSupport Structure

4.4. Strategy, TacticsStrategy, Tactics

5.5. Counterterrorist EffortsCounterterrorist Efforts

6.6. Non-Violent Political ActivitiesNon-Violent Political Activities

1. Origins, Objectives, Doctrine1. Origins, Objectives, Doctrine

Roots of Radical Sunni IdeologyAnti-colonial nationalismIsrael-Palestine issue

Ahmad ibn Taymiyyah (Damascas) 1263-1328 Deobandi Islamreturning to original 1867 British-held Indiasources of Islam anti-colonial Islam Abu al-Ala Maududi Abdullah Azzam

1903-1979 Palestinian 1941-1989Pakistan Intellectual mentor of OBLPurification of Islam is a keyto independence from British

• Salafism• Late 1800s Rashid Rida, Egypt Muslim Brotherhood Sayyid Qutb• return to 1866-1935 Egypt 1928 1906-1966• original sources only Salafi beliefs Hassan al-Banna Egypt Al-Qaeda• can free Muslims rejects British colonialism member of MB Osama bin-

Laden from colonialism rejects “westernization” of Islam purify Islam Ayman al-Zawahri

• rejects church/state separation violence if necessary• anti-Israel

Muhammad ibn Abd al Wahhab anti-US(Arabian Peninsula) “founder” of “Sunni 1703-1792 radicalism” return to original sources Milestonesrejects Islamic pluralismcondoned violence against apostates Abd-Al-Salam Al-Farajanti-Ottoman, seen as foreign occupiers, apostates 1932 Saudi Arabia becomes independent Egypt, 1952-1982

• unifies Arabian regions and families disciple of Qutbunder the al-Saud family

The Neglected Duty• Wahhabi Islam becomes the official creed• Late 1700s• Al-Saud family alliance with Wahhabi movement•

Saudi-sponsored madrassasglobally, by late 20th century-

Israel-Palestine issue

Origins of AQOrigins of AQ Iranian RevolutionIranian Revolution (1978-1979)(1978-1979) provides inspirationprovides inspiration foreign fightersforeign fighters formationformation go home,go home, of Afghan mujahadin of Afghan mujahadin form new groupsform new groups or join existing or join existing Pakistan militaryPakistan military groups, create a groups, create a

allies with radicalallies with radical global terrorglobal terrorIslamic groups (1977-79)Islamic groups (1977-79) networknetworkprovides sanctuaryprovides sanctuary

Ideological legacyIdeological legacy USSR invades USSR invades US, China, PakistanUS, China, Pakistan Soviets Soviets of radical Islamicof radical Islamic Afghanistan Afghanistan Egypt, Saudi Arabia,Egypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw withdraw thoughtthought 1979 1979 and others funding,and others funding, 1989 1989 provides ideologyprovides ideology supplying, and trainingsupplying, and training and inspirationand inspiration mujahadin and jihadismujahadin and jihadis

OBL and others recruitOBL and others recruit Saudi funded religious schools Saudi funded religious schools volunteers volunteers al-Qaeda (global)al-Qaeda (global) (madrassas) in Middle East (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassas from madrassas Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)Abu Sayyaf (Phil.) and Asia (1970s-1980s) and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and Asia in M. E. and Asia GIA (Algeria)GIA (Algeria) provides recruits with ideologyprovides recruits with ideology (foreign fighters (foreign fighters HAMAS HAMAS

or jihadis) or jihadis) Islamic Jihad Islamic Jihad IMUIMU

Jemaah Islamiah Jemaah Islamiah PIJPIJBosnia, Chechnya, Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir…Kashmir…

TimeTime

AQ is Clear About GoalsAQ is Clear About Goals 1996 fatwa 1998 fatwa Al-Qaeda Training Manual (Manchester Manual) Bin-Laden videos Abu Bakr Naji, Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery Article on Mustafa on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri)(Abu Musab al-Suri) Militant Ideology Atlas(Combating Terrorism Center)(Combating Terrorism Center)

Restore the CaliphateRestore the Caliphate

From From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, , REPORT OF THE U.S. REPORT OF THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006 HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006

AQAM Attacks 1995-2011AQAM Attacks 1995-2011

2. Leadership, Leadership Structure2. Leadership, Leadership Structure

FoundersFounders

Abdullah AzzamAbdullah Azzam Osama bin-LadenOsama bin-Laden

LeadershipLeadership

AQ Leadership 1989AQ Leadership 1989 Leadership 2008Leadership 2008

DecentralizationDecentralization Regional NodesRegional Nodes CellsCells

Central StructureCentral Structure

OBLEmir General

and core leadersShura

Media Finance Military Religious/Legal N EO D S

LEC SL

Networks INetworks I

Traditional organization modelTraditional organization model Hierarchical/corporate modelHierarchical/corporate model

Tier 1

Tier 2 Tier 2 Tier 2

Tier 3 Tier 3 Tier 3 Tier 3Tier 3 Tier 3

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

Networks IINetworks II

Corporate ModelCorporate Model• CentralizationCentralization• ControlControl• CommandCommand• AuthorityAuthority• Permanent Permanent

structurestructure• Transparent Transparent

operations for operations for coordinationcoordination

Network modelNetwork model• DecentralizedDecentralized• AutonomousAutonomous• EntrepreneurialEntrepreneurial• Disconnected or Disconnected or

isolatedisolated• Temporary linkagesTemporary linkages• Operational secrecyOperational secrecy

Networks IIINetworks III

ModelsModels

Cell OperationsCell Operations

FF

T T

P

P

T

F

P

LL

L

O

O

O

Another View of StructureAnother View of Structure

AQ CellsAQ Cells

From From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF REPORT OF THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006

3. Support Structure3. Support Structure

AQ Support and ActivitiesAQ Support and Activities

AQ Attacks against USAQ Attacks against US AQ Affiliated Organizations and AQ Affiliated Organizations and

People (UN List)People (UN List)

From: http://indiandefence.com/threads/al-qaeda-is-expanding-and-its-amost-significant-From: http://indiandefence.com/threads/al-qaeda-is-expanding-and-its-amost-significant-foreign-enemya-is-france.29577foreign-enemya-is-france.29577

AQ FinancesAQ Finances

From From al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamist Extremist Threat, REPORT OF REPORT OF THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006THE U.S. HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE , JUNE 2006

4. Strategy and Tactics4. Strategy and Tactics

The Debate: The Debate: The Far Enemy The Far Enemy 0r0rThe Near EnemyThe Near Enemy

Writings on StrategyWritings on Strategy Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of

SavagerySavagery Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri)(Abu Musab al-Suri)

Model A: Focus on Near EnemyModel A: Focus on Near Enemy

Terrorist attacksTerrorist attacks UnderminingUndermining

Political AgitationPolitical Agitation of currentof current

Religious IndoctrinationReligious Indoctrination regimesregimes

Revolution,Coup,

Insurgency, Electoral

participation(but goal of

authoritarian State)

Model B-1: Near and Far Enemy: Model B-1: Near and Far Enemy: US WithdrawalUS Withdrawal

Terrorist attacksTerrorist attacks UnderminingUndermining

Political AgitationPolitical Agitation of current of current

Religious IndoctrinationReligious Indoctrination regimesregimes

Strike at USStrike at US

Strike at US alliesStrike at US allies US withdrawsUS withdraws

from involvementfrom involvement

Revolution,Coup,

Insurgency, Electoral

participation(but goal of

authoritarian State)

Model B-2: Near and Far Enemy: Model B-2: Near and Far Enemy: US OverreactionUS Overreaction

Terrorist attacksTerrorist attacks UnderminingUndermining

Political AgitationPolitical Agitation of current of current

Religious Indoc.Religious Indoc. regimesregimes

Strike at USStrike at US

Strike at US alliesStrike at US allies US OverreactionUS Overreaction

Revolution, Coup,

Insurgency, Electoral

participation(but goal of

authoritarian state)

Classic Maoist Insurgent WarfareClassic Maoist Insurgent Warfare(for reference only)(for reference only)

Phase III: Movement WarfarePhase III: Movement Warfare

NearnessNearness

to goalto goal Phase II: Guerrilla WarfarePhase II: Guerrilla Warfare

Phase I: Propaganda and OrganizationPhase I: Propaganda and Organization

TimeTime

Al-Qaeda Insurgent/Terrorist WarfareAl-Qaeda Insurgent/Terrorist Warfare (for reference only) (for reference only)

Iran ModelIran Model Afghan./Somalia ModelAfghan./Somalia ModelSudan ModelSudan Model

NearnessNearness

To goalTo goal Phase III: Taking PowerPhase III: Taking Power

Phase II: Terrorist StrikesPhase II: Terrorist Strikes

Phase I: Education/Religious Instruction and Phase I: Education/Religious Instruction and Creation of Network OrganizationCreation of Network Organization

TimeTime

Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of SavageryAbu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery

CurrentCurrent political and political and create create establish establish gain gain

statestate religious religious instability; instability; new order; new order; legitimacy, legitimacy,

organization;organization; savagery; savagery; religious religious authority, authority,

terroristterrorist chaos chaos order order power power

attacksattacks

TimeTime

Khobar Towers, 1996Khobar Towers, 1996

Nairobi, August 7, 1998Nairobi, August 7, 1998

USS Cole October 2000USS Cole October 2000

Bali Bombing October 2002Bali Bombing October 2002

Marriott Hotel, Jakarta, IndonesiaMarriott Hotel, Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 2003August 2003

Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004

Australian Embassy Jakarta Australian Embassy Jakarta Sept. 2004Sept. 2004

London, July 2005London, July 2005

London and Glascow Attacks, London and Glascow Attacks, June 2007June 2007

Algerian Coast Guard BarracksAlgerian Coast Guard BarracksSeptember 2007September 2007

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)(Washington Post)

Mumbai, November 2008Mumbai, November 2008(Lashkar-e Taiba)(Lashkar-e Taiba)

Westgate Shopping Mall, Nairobi, Westgate Shopping Mall, Nairobi, September 2013 (al-Shabab)September 2013 (al-Shabab)

AQAM EvolutionAQAM Evolution

FarFar Near andNear and RegionalRegional AffiliatesAffiliatesEnemyEnemy Far EnemyFar Enemy GroupsGroups Gain StrengthGain StrengthHybridHybrid Morocco, Morocco, AQAPAQAP al-Shababal-Shabab

Algeria, Algeria, AQIMAQIM Boko Boko UK, UK, AQIAQI ISILISILIndonesiaIndonesia AffiliatesAffiliates AQAPAQAPGreater Greater TTPTTPDecentralizationDecentralization AQIS (2014)AQIS (2014)

AutonomyAutonomy

20012001 2002/32002/3 20042004 2010+2010+

TimeTime

5. Counterterrorism 5. Counterterrorism MeasuresMeasures

6. Non-Violent Activities6. Non-Violent Activities