analyst's handbook: retailers
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst’s Handbook:Retailers
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 8, 2012
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Retailers www.yardeni.com
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S&P 500 Retailers: Consumer Discretionary 1S&P 500 Retailers: Consumer Staples 2S&P 500/400/600 Retailers YTD 3-4Retail: US vs. Europe, Yearly Percent Change 5Retailers E & P/E 6-8Retailers Profit Margins 9US Consumers: Retail Sales 10Retail Sales 11Retail Sales & Earnings 12Auto & Home Sales 13G7 Retail Sales 14
Figure 1.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
200
400
600
800
1000
12/7S&P 500 APPAREL RETAILANF GPS LTD TJX
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
12/7
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAILBBY CC RSH
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
12/7
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES(JCP JWN KSS SHLD)
200-day moving averageSource: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1475
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
12/7
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORSGPC
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
12/7S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE(BLI DG FDO TGT)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
12/7S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL(HD LOW SHW)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
120012/7S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL
(AMZN EXPE NFLX PCLN)
200-day moving average.Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1425
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
12/7
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S&P 500 SPECIALTY STORES(ODP OMX SPLS TIF)
- S&P 500 Retailers: Consumer Discretionary -
Page 1 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Retailers www.yardeni.com
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Figure 2.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
12/7
S&P 500 DRUG RETAIL(CVS WAG)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
12/7
S&P 500 FOOD DISTRIBUTORS(SYY)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
100
150
200
250
300
350
12/7
S&P 500 FOOD RETAIL(KR SVU SWY WFMI)
200-day moving average.Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1470
90
110
130
150
170
12/7
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S&P 500 HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS(COST WMT)
- S&P 500 Retailers: Consumer Staples -
Page 2 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Retailers www.yardeni.com
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-30
-10
10
30
50
31.7
Figure 3.S&P 500 Large Cap
ApparelRetail
-30
-10
10
30
50
33.8
S&P 400 Mid Cap
-30
-10
10
30
50
7.6
S&P 600 Small Cap
-30
-10
10
30
50
12.4AutomotiveRetail
-30
-10
10
30
50
2.9
-30
-10
10
30
50
11.1
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
-28.6
Computer &ElectronicsRetail
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1.1DepartmentStores
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
8.2
-10
0
10
20
30
40
4.7
Distributors
-10
0
10
20
30
40
31.7
-20
-10
0
10
20
12.9
DrugRetail
-20
-10
0
10
20
8.5FoodDistributors
-30
-10
10
30
11.4
-40-30-20-10
0102030
11.7FoodRetail
-40-30-20-10
0102030
-30.2-40-30-20-10
0102030
-3.3
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
13.6
GeneralMerchandiseStores
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
.3
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
9.6
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
48.4HomeImprovementRetail
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
.4
HomefurnishingRetail
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
12.1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
16.3
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- S&P 500/400/600 Retailers YTD -
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-15
-5
5
15
25
35
22.5
Figure 4.S&P 500 Large Cap
Hypermarkets &Super Centers
-5
5
15
25
35
45
5545.9
Internet &Catalog Retail
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
-12.7
SpecialtyStores
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
24.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012 2013
-30
-10
10
30
50
7059.8
S&P 600 Small Cap
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- S&P 500/400/600 Retailers YTD -
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-50
0
50
100
11.8
Fig 5. S&P 500 LargeCap
All Sectors
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
11.5
MSCI Europe
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
8.2Distributors
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
17.9Food & StaplesRetailing
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-8.4
-75
0
75
150
225
300
375
33.1
Internet &Catalog Retail
-100
-50
0
50
100
-43.8
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
4.0
MultilineRetail
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
29.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
26.9Specialty Retail
Source: Haver Analytics.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-50
0
50
100
20.0
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- Retail: US vs. Europe, Yearly Percent Change -
Page 5 / December 8, 2012 / Analyst’s Handbook: Retailers www.yardeni.com
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014255075100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600625
255075
100125150175200225250275300325350375400425450475500525550575600625
NovS&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS:*SPECIALTY RETAIL(1997=100)
Apparel Retail
Computers & Electronics Retail
Home Improvement Retail
Specialty Stores
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 6.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E RATIOS:*SPECIALTY RETAIL
Apparel Retail
Computers & Electronics Retail
Home Improvement Retail
Specialty Stores
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 7.
- Retailers E & P/E -
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201425
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
525
575
625
675
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS:*MULTILINE RETAIL(1997=100)
Department Stores
General Merchandise Stores
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 8.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E RATIOS:*MULTILINE RETAIL
Department Stores
General Merchandise Stores
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 9.
- Retailers E & P/E -
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201450
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600 NovS&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS:*FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING(1997=100)
Drug Retail
Food Distributors
Food Retail
* 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 10.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Nov
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E RATIOS:*FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING(1997=100)
Drug Retail
Food Distributors
Food Retail
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 11.
- Retailers E & P/E -
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Figure 12.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q4
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS SPECIALTY RETAIL(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
Apparel Retail
Computer & Electronics Retail
Home Improvement Retail
Specialty Stores
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142
3
4
5
6
2
3
4
5
6
Q4
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS MULTILINE RETAIL(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
Department Stores
General MerchandiseStores
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q4
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGINS FOOD & STAPLES RETAILING(trailing 4-quarter EPS, percent)
Drug RetailFood DistributorsFood Retail
Sources for all charts: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Haver Analytics.
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- Retailers Profit Margins -
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Figure 13.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Oct
RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES SALES(yearly percent change in 3-month moving average)
Retail Sales & Food Services
Retail Sales & Food Services SalesEx Motor Vehicles & Parts Dealers & Gasoline
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct
Furniture & Home FurnishingsPlus Furniture Stores
Building Materials
Electronics & Appliance Stores
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
Oct
Department Stores_______________
Total
Discount
Conventional & National Chain
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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- US Consumers: Retail Sales -
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep
NONSTORE RETAIL SALES(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
Electronic Shopping& Mail Order
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 14.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
700
660
620
580
540
500
460
420
380
340
300
260
220
Oct
US CONSUMER INDICATORS
Initial Unemployment Claims(4-week average, thousands, sa, inverted scale)
Retail SalesEx Autos & Gasoline(yearly percent change in 3-ma)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 15.
- Retail Sales -
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20146.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Nov
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & SALES:COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL
S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Computer & Electronics Retail*
Electronics & Appliance Store Sales(billion dollars, saar)
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 16.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014150
200
250
300
350
400
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
NovS&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & SALES:HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL
S&P 500 Forward Earnings:Home Improvement Retail*
Retail Sales: Building Materials &Garden Equipment(billion dollars, saar)
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* Time-weighted average of current and analysts’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Department of Commerce.
Figure 17.
- Retail Sales & Earnings -
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Nov
Nov
RETAIL UNIT AUTO SALES(million units, saar)
Total*
Domestic Cars
DomesticLight Trucks
Imports
* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 18.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Oct
HOUSING STARTS & NEW HOME SALES(million units, saar)
Total Housing StartsSingle-Family Housing StartsNew Home Sales
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 19.
- Auto & Home Sales -
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Figure 20.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-6.5-5.5-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-.5.5
1.52.53.54.55.5
Aug
G7*
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
OctJAPAN
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Oct
UNITED STATES
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Oct
GERMANY
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Aug
CANADA
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep
FRANCE
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep
UNITED KINGDOM
* All series are volume indexes except for the U.S. which is in millions of dollars. All series are yearly percent changes in 12-month averages.Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development, Standard & Poor’s DRI, and Haver Analytics.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-.5
.5
1.5
2.5
Jul
ITALY
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- G7 Retail Sales* -
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