analyst presentation 2015/16
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst and Investor Presentation
11 November 2015
2015/16 Interim results - 30 September 2015
“Our turnaround is on course”
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© Flybe 2015 2 © Flybe 2015 2
Agenda
Welcome – Saad Hammad
Business update – Saad Hammad
Financial review – Philip de Klerk
Summary & Q&A
© Flybe 2015 3
Business update – Saad Hammad
© Flybe 2015 3
Key H1 highlights
• Strong core business performance
– Third consecutive quarter with double digit capacity, passenger volume and
revenue growth
– Continued unit cost reduction
– Return to profit
– Improved cash generation
• Project Blackbird complete
– Solutions for all surplus 14 E195 jets now delivered
– c£40m mitigation vs. £80m of outstanding lease obligations
© Flybe 2015 4 © Flybe 2015 4
• Revenue and profit improvement in core business
• Sustained improvement in cost per seat excluding fuel
• Cash generation improved in H1 with overall net cash inflow from
operating activities of £21.3m (H1 2014/15: inflow of £6.5m)
• At 30 September 2015, the Group’s balance sheet remained strong with
net assets of £172.8m, including total cash of £197.2m and net funds of
£86.3m, up £9.6m vs. year end
© Flybe 2015 6
Key H1 2015/16 Group Financials - Summary
Net funds = Total cash less total borrowings
© Flybe 2015 7 Company Confidential & Proprietary
• Revenue growth driven by
13.1% increase in UK capacity
• Within H1 2015/16 Group
Revenue - FAS 3rd party revenue £8.7m
- Other revenue £5.9m
- Contract flying (White Label)
£5.0m
Group revenue increased by 10.3% in line with plan
Flybe Group Revenue Components H1 2014/15 vs. H1 2015/16
Encouraging H1 profit development
© Flybe 2015 8
£m H1 2014/15 H1 2015/16 YOY change
Flybe UK (0.7) 23.5 24.2
FAS 1.5 (0.3) (1.8)
Group costs (1.8) (2.1) (0.3)
Adjusted profit/(loss) before tax (1.0) 21.1 22.1
Revaluation gains/(losses) on USD loans (2.3) 1.8 4.1
Reported profit/(loss) of continuing operations before tax (3.3) 22.9 26.2
Tax (charge) /credit (0.1) 3.9 4.0
Profit/(loss) of continuing operations after tax (3.4) 26.8 30.2
Discontinued Operations (12.0) 0.0 12.0
Reported profit/(loss) after tax (15.4) 26.8 42.2
Adjusted EBITDAR 47.0 70.5 23.5
Earnings/(loss) per share (basic), pence (7.1) 12.3 19.4
RPS dilution managed while driving double digit seat capacity growth
© Flybe 2015 9
Flybe UK H1 2014/15 vs. H1 2015/16
Operational Headlines & Unit Revenue by Component
Operational Headlines
Unit Revenue by Component
H1 2014/15 H1 2015/16 YOY Change %
Seats, m 5.2 5.9 13.1 %
Passengers, m 4.1 4.5 10.2 %
Load factor, % 78.2 % 76.3 % (2.0) ppts
Average passenger sector length, km 495 479 (3.2)%
£ per seat H1 2014/15 H1 2015/16 YOY Change
Passenger revenue 54.75 54.56 (0.3)%
Other revenue, incl. contract flying 2.61 1.85 (29.1)%
Total Flybe UK revenue 57.36 56.42 (1.6)%
Hedging continues to be in line with policy
10
Fuel
Market price down by 42% in US dollars
But largely hedged, so effective price down 13% at USD 835
USD
Market rate adverse by 7%
Post hedge rate improved by 3% at USD 1.62
Resulting in GBP cost of fuel falling by 16%
Outlook
Fuel: 86% hedged in H2 at USD 855, 70% H1 next year at USD 668
USD : 76% hedged in H2 at USD 1.57, 65% H1 next year at USD 1.54
© Flybe 2015 10
We improved profit per seat
11
1.6% decrease in
Total Revenue Per Seat
8.9% decrease in
Cost Per Seat
(7% decrease at constant currency)
• Total Flybe UK revenue per seat includes ticket revenue, ancillary revenue, refunds and hardblock codeshare revenue
• Cost per seat is Flybe UK adjusted cost
• Profit per seat is Total Flybe UK revenue less Flybe UK adjusted cost
© Flybe 2015
£4.18 improvement in
Profit Per Seat
7.0% reduction in Cost Per Seat at constant currency
© Flybe 2015 12
Costs exclude USD loan revaluation.
Surplus aircraft cost is included within aircraft ownership and maintenance cost.
Flybe UK H1 2014/15 vs. H1 2015/16 Unit Cost Bridge
Cost per seat reduced by 5.8% excl.
£4m historical EU261 provision in
prior year
Strong operating cash flow of £21.3m
© Flybe 2015 13
Includes: • £7.7m aircraft parts and
modifications • £3.7m land & buildings, plant &
equipment, assets under construction
Group Cash Flow Bridge 2014/15 to H1 2015/16
195.9 197.2
21.3 (12.3) (7.7)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Total cash at March 2015 Operating cash flow Investing activities Financing activities Total cash at September2015
£m
• Revenue and profit improvement in core business
• Sustained improvement in cost per seat excluding fuel
• Cash generation improved in H1 with overall net cash inflow from
operating activities of £21.3m (H1 2014/15: inflow of £6.5m)
• At 30 September 2015, the Group’s balance sheet remained strong with
net assets of £172.8m, including total cash of £197.2m and net funds of
£86.3m, up £9.6m vs. year end
© Flybe 2015 14
Key H1 2015/16 Group Financials - Summary
Net funds = total cash less total borrowings
• Continued progress in building a strong core business
- Revenue growth and cost improvement plus operational and white
label progress
- Positive Like-for-Like route performance has supported investment
in new routes
• Solutions for last major legacy issue, E195s (Project Blackbird)
delivered
• Q3 performance to date is in line with management expectations
• Now focussed on profitable capacity growth
© Flybe 2015 16
Summary
We have delivered consistent top-line growth for three consecutive quarters
Flybe UK seat and passenger revenue growth, 2012 – 2015 by quarter
17 © Flybe 2015
Immediate
Actions
E195
Mitigations
Start of Republic
Q400 deliveries
Improved a/c
utilisation
18 © Flybe 2015
13.1% increase in Seat Capacity
10.2% increase in
Passenger Volumes
13.1% seat capacity growth has been accompanied by 10.2% passenger volume growth and sustained sector leadership
0.4ppts increase in UK Regional
Domestic Sector Share
Source: Flybe, CAA Monthly Stats Oct 13 – Sep 15
+ =
Despite capacity growth, we have improved yields with limited load factor and RPS dilution
19
Decreased but still high load factor
Increased yields….
© Flybe 2015
A small reduction in revenue per seat
+1.6%
-2 ppts
(0.3)%
• 7.0% CPS reduction including fuel (at constant
currency)
• Also, 5.8% CPS reduction excluding fuel:
- lower surplus aircraft cost with the mitigations
from flying 3 E195 aircraft in H1
- non-recurrence of one-time charge for historic
EU261 liabilities
- lower aircraft and ownership costs & lower
marketing spend
Reduction in Cost Per Seat (CPS) Operational Delivery in H1 maintained
Gains in Aircraft Utilisation Sustained
Brussels Airlines contract extended by 2 years as of
October 2015 with 2 Q400 aircraft
SAS operations with two ATRs started in Stockholm on
time and on budget
White Label progress
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
15 Mins Arr OTP Flown as % of Scheduled
H1 FY15
H1 FY16
% of
Flights
+26 bps +8 bps
84.4% 84.2%
99.2% 99.1%
Daily
Block
Hours
per a/c
(12 mos
moving
average)
Cost improvement plus operational and white label progress
© Flybe 2015 20
Strong performance on unchanged LFL routes has supported investment in new routes
H1 2015/16 % of Total Seat Capacity Route Category with RPS Change vs. Prior Year
4.6%
(31)% vs.
network average
(7.8)%
34%
% RPS
change vly
21 © Flybe 2015
69%
19%
8%
4%
Unchanged Routes
New Routes
Routes with >20% cap.increase
Routes with >20% cap. decrease
% of H1 2015/16 Total Seat Capacity
Project Blackbird : done!
© Flybe 2015 22
• 5 aircraft handed back to lessors
• 5 redeployed in multi-year airport agreements in Flybe livery
– Cardiff (2), Exeter/Norwich (1), Doncaster Sheffield Airport (2)
• 1 at Newquay under a redefined Public Service Obligation (PSO)
– To satisfy increased demand for the Newquay-London Gatwick route
• 3 will operate at Birmingham and Manchester airports
– Two to provide additional capacity on high demand routes
– One to provide EJet standby cover for the 19 EJets flying
• Results in c£40m mitigation vs. £80m lease obligations
– All the agreements commence end of March 2016 except Cardiff
which is already under way
Project Blackbird Portfolio: Complete
© Flybe 2015 23
G-FBEA: Returned G-FBEB: Returned G-FBEC: Returned G-FBED: Returned
G-FBEE: Returned
G-FBEN: Flying at EXE/NWI G-FBEM: Flying at NQY
G-FBEF: Flying at Cardiff G-FBEI: Flying at Cardiff
G-FBEG: Spare at BHX G-FBEH: Flying at BHX G-FBEJ: Flying at MAN
G-FBEK: Flying at DSA G-FBEL: Flying at DSA
Q3 performance to date is in line with management expectations
Q3 headlines as at 9th November (% change vs. prior year):
• Seat capacity up by c13%
• c51% of seats sold vs. c56% in the prior year
• Yield up c4%
• Passenger revenue per seat down by c6%
We enter the winter season with solid momentum
• We enter winter appropriately positioned
• Industry-wide seat capacity growth and benefit from lower fuel cost
• Flybe will retain focus on cost control and disciplined approach to capacity
investment - investing in winter primarily in additional frequencies on 18
established routes (only 4 new routes)
• Targeting to enhance regional connectivity for business customers with
higher frequency schedule
© Flybe 2015 24
We have now completed Chapter 3 of our transformation
March
2014
Jul-Sept
2014 2015-2017
Immediate Actions
• Cash
• Cost
• Configuration
• Commercialisation
• Confidence
• Cost base resizing
• Exit Finland JV
• Resolve fleet issues:
- Q400 mods, E175 order
- E195s (Project Blackbird)
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
• Core UK revenue growth
• New routes & bases
• Codeshares
• Partnerships
Mar
2015
Chapter 1
Restructuring
Chapter 2
Rebirth
Chapter 3
Growth platforms
&
Legacy solutions
New growth platforms Legacy issue solutions
© Flybe 2015 25
Company Confidential & Proprietary
• £22.5m restricted cash released
• £150m net capital raise
• Brand relaunch
• Purple-isation
© Flybe 2015 25
Our attention now is firmly shifting to Chapter 4
Flybe’s Journey
Chapter 1: Restructuring
Chapter 2: Rebirth (strengthen balance sheet, relaunch brand)
Chapter 3: Establish growth platforms, while resolving legacy issues
Chapter 4: Profitable growth
Time saving connectivity for regional customers
26
Focus on our compelling USP:
© Flybe 2015
We are building off solid foundations
27 © Flybe 2015 Company Confidential & Proprietary
• Number of aircraft: 70 (49 Q400, 11 E175, 9 E195, 1 ATR72-600)
• Number of routes: 149 Winter 2015, 62 departure points (34 UK, 28 EU)
• Number of bases: 10
• Codeshare partners: 8 (+17 interline agreements)
• Pax total: c8m
• Pax split: c50% business, c25% VFR, c25% leisure
• Bookings split: 80% website, 20% indirect channels
• Number of FTEs: 1,979
• Culture: Purple
Flybe as at end H1 2015/16
Summary
• Strong core business performance
– Third consecutive quarter with double digit capacity, passenger volume and
revenue growth
– Continued unit cost reduction
– Return to profit
– Improved cash generative
• Project Blackbird complete
– Solutions for all surplus 14 E195 jets now delivered
– c£40m of mitigation vs. £80 outstanding lease obligations
• Outlook for winter is cautiously optimistic
– We enter winter appropriately positioned
– Industry-wide seat capacity growth and benefit from lower fuel cost
– Flybe disciplined with focused investment on enhancing regional connectivity
for business customers with higher frequency schedule
© Flybe 2015 29 © Flybe 2015 29 Company Confidential & Proprietary
Financial calendar
• FY16 Q3 RNS – 28 January 2016
• FY16 results – 9 June 2016
• AGM – 27 July 2016
© Flybe 2015 32 32
Group balance sheet
© Flybe 2015 33 33
£m Sep-15 Mar-15 YOY change
Aircraft 163.7 166.4 (2.7)
Other property, plant and equipment 23.7 22.7 1.0
Net funds 86.3 76.7 9.6
Derivative financial instruments (16.4) (7.2) (9.2)
Other working capital (95.0) (115.6) 20.6
Deferred tax 13.1 8.5 4.6
Other non-current assets and liabilities (2.5) (11.5) 9.0
Net assets and shareholders' funds 172.8 140.0 32.8
Group – Fleet under management
34 © Flybe 2015 34
Sep-15 Mar-15 Movements
Embraer 118-seat E195 regional jet 9 10 (1)
Embraer 88-seat E175 regional jet 11 11 -
Bombardier 78-seat Q400 turboprop 49 45 4
ATR72-600 turboprop 1 - 1
Group fleet under management 70 66 4
Held on operating lease 56 52 4
Owned and debt financed 14 14 -
Group fleet under management 70 66 4
Total seats in fleet 5,894 5,658
Average seats per aircraft 84.2 85.7
Average age of fleet (years) 7.3 7.0
Flybe Group - impact of fuel and hedging positions
© Flybe 2015 35
As we hedge most of our fuel and USD exposure, we do not fully benefit
from falling oil prices until the end of 2015/16
H1 2014/15 H1 2015/16 Change
Jet fuel, $ / metric tonne
Market rate $(954) $(551) $(402)
Effective price $(959) $(835) $(124)
Current hedge portfolio:
- H2 2015/16 – 86% hedged at $855 per tonne
- H1 2016/17 – 70% hedged at $668 per tonne
GBP:USD rate
Market rate $1.62 $1.51 $0.11
Effective price $1.57 $1.62 $(0.06)
Current hedge portfolio:
- H2 2015/16 – 76% hedged at $1.57
- H1 2016/17 – 65% hedged at $1.54
Actual cost of fuel, £ / metric tonne (612) (514) (98)