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Analyses from the Final Two MDR Flights & Hurricane Edouard

Jason P. Dunion1, Ryan Torn2, Gary Wick3, Robbie, Hood3, Mike Black4

1 University of Miami – NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division – University at Albany/SUNY2University at Albany/SUNY

3 NOAA/UAS Program4 NOAA/AOML/HRD

NASA HS3-HSRP Science Meeting, May 5 – 7, 2015NASA Research Park, Moffett Field, CA

Global Hawk MDR Mission 22-23 September 2014: 40 GPS dropsondes

Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014: 64 GPS dropsondes

33 % RH (80%); 36 kt (SE)21% RH (80%)TINV: 2.9C

39 kt (ESE)

Global Hawk MDR GPS Dropsondes (28-29 Sept)

12-hr forecastWRF intialized

29 Sept 0600 UTC

500-850 hPa Qvapor

Forecastsw-w/o MDR sondes

Contours: control forecast values

Dry SAL air >> shifted west

Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014

36-hr forecast

12-hr forecast36-hr forecast

• 850 hPa specific humidity RMS error (compared to AIRS)

• Forecasts: w-w/o dropsondes

• Ave over 5-deg bins

• Negative values(light blue-purple) >> forecast improvedw/ MDR drops

Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014

2014 Hurricane EdouardWRF Ensemble Members (Track & Intensity)

24-hr48-hr

72-hr

96-hr

120-hr

Ensemble Members

Ensemble Members

2014 Hurricane Edouard: Dropsonde ImpactMission: 13 Sep 12 UTC

48-hr Intensity Forecast: 15 Sep 12 UTC

Intensity: % Error Reduction

VWS: 19kt@199 deg

2014 Hurricane EdouardWRF Ensemble Track Forecasts (initialized 13 Sep 1200 UTC)

10 Strongest members (0-72 hr)

10 Weakest members (0-72 hr)

24-hr

48-hr

72-hr

96-hr

120-hr

Metricalong-track dx (96 hr)

2014 Hurricane Edouard: Dropsonde ImpactMission: 15 Sep 12 UTC

48-hr Along-Track Distance: 17 Sep 12 UTC

GPS dropsonde impactAlong-track distance (SW-NE)

Conclusions

1. MDR Missions• 2 NOAA-led MDR missions conducted at the end of 2014 HS3• Strong SAL sampled in the eastern NATL• GPS dropsondes >> assimilated into WRF• Preliminary results >> shifted dry SAL air west (gradients, AEJ) • Preliminary results >> improved 850 hPa moisture (AIRS)

2. Hurricane Edouard• WRF (HWRF) Ensembles >>Track & Intensity adaptive sampling• Intensity improvement targets: NW quadrant• Track improvement targets: eastern semicircle• 80 member HWRF ensemble >> 2015 NOAA SHOUT