an upbeat beige book except for housing

8/8/2019 An Upbeat Beige Book Except for Housing

1/4

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks

and commentary can be found at http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl

Januar y 13, 2011 An Upbeat Beige Book Except for Housing

According to the latest Fed Beige Book, economic activity continued to expand moderately fromNovember through December, but residential real estate remained weak with new home constructionslow across all Districts. Nonresidential construction also remained weak. Retailers and manufacturersreported that costs were rising, while labor markets are starting to improve in most Districts. In someDistricts construction-related manufacturers continued to report considerable weakness with makers owood products reporting very soft demand.

The tone was generally cautious with improving economic conditions in 2011, but not strong growth.There is no longer the talk about a possible double-dip. My conclusion remains the same.Economic growth on Main Street USA depends upon construction, both homebuilding andnonresidential. Without this turnaround job creation will remain anemic!

The AAII Central Florida Chapter Presents

The Death of Buy and Hold, the Rise of Buy and Trade by Richard Suttmeier

Wednesday, January 19, 20116:30 - 7:00 p.m. Registration / Refreshments7:00 p.m. Presentation8:00 8:30 p.m. Q&A

University Club of Winter Park841 N. Park AveWinter Park, FL 32789

Contact Information [email protected]

Yesterday I predicted that the major equity averages would rally and straddle this weeks pivots/ risky levels at 11,714 Dow, 1279.8 SPX, 2737 NASDAQ, 5308 Dow Transports and 818.09Russell 2000. The Dow and SPX traded above their levels and the NASDAQ closed at 2737.

The major equity averages still straddle quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels favoringa reversal-oriented first quarter 11,395 Dow, 1162.5 SPX, 2853 NASDAQ, 4671 Transports and765.50 Russell 2000. The NASDAQ has the only quarterly risky level, which is the target if allweekly risky levels become pivots.


2/4

The US Treasury 10-Year yield has a weekly value level at 3.636 with the 50-day simple movingaverages at 3.079. Wednesdays 10-Year auction was strong at 3.388 with a 3.3 bid to cover and54% going to Indirect bidders, which includes foreign Central Banks. Comex gold is trading

between my annual value level at $1356.5 and my weekly risky level at $1396.2. Nymex crudeoil is trying to trade above its January 3rd high at $92.58 with this weeks pivot at $91.10. Theeuro moved back above its 200-day at 1.3070 with my quarterly risky level at 1.3227. The Dowset a new high for the move at 11.782, above this weeks pivot at 11,714.

10-Year Note (3.355) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 3.439, 3.636, 3.791 an4.268. Annual, semiannual and monthly risky levels are 2.690, 2.441, 2.322 and 2.150.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1385.8) Annual, daily, semiannual and annual value levels are $1356.5, $1342.3,$1300.6 and $1187.2 with a weekly risky level at $1396.2. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual riskylevels are $1439.0, $1441.7 and $1452.6.



3/4

Nymex Crude Oil ($91.86) Semiannual and monthly value levels are $87.52 and $75.74 with dailyand weekly pivots at $89.15 and $91.10. Weekly closes above $87.52 targets annual, semiannual and

quarterly risky levels at $99.91, $101.92, $107.14 and $110.87.


The Euro (1.3131) Daily, monthly and weekly value levels are 1.2820, 1.2805 and 1.2773 withquarterly risky level at 1.3227. Semiannual and annual risky levels are 1.4624, 1.4989, 1.6367 and1.7312.



4/4

Daily Dow: (11,755)Annual, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 11,491,11,395, 10,959, 10,427 and 9,449 with a weekly pivot at 11,714, and daily and annual risky levels at

11,817 and 13,890.


ValuEngine shows all 16 sectors overvalued with only 35.1% of all stocks undervalued. Thiscontinues the Valuation Warning for the stock market.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategist

ValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576Send your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on our products and services visitwww.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues andfind out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

an upbeat beige book except for housing

Documents