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An Iranian banana skinLula has little to show for his Tehran adventure

Jun 17th 2010 |Braslia

We wont bow to pressure

Although Brazil has been a member of the UN Security Council on tenseparate occasions since 1946, it had never before voted against aresolution backed by a majority of the councils members. But on June9th Brazil and Turkey both opposed further sanctions against Iran. Indoing so it was out of step not just with its old allies, the United Statesand the European powers, but also with its new ones, Russia and China,all of which are worried by Irans nuclear programme. Why has thegovernment of Luiz Incio Lula da Silva stuck its neck out so far for

Iran?

The short answer is that Lula, a former trade-union leader, fancieshimself as the man who can talk Iran into obeying the worlds nuclearrules, and thinks sanctions will bring that effort to nought. Last monthhe flew to Tehran for talks with Irans president, MahmoudAhmadinejad, and Turkeys prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

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The three countries signed an agreement under which Iran would sendto Turkey 1,200kg of its low-enriched (under 5%) uranium stocks; inreturn it would receive within a year more highly enriched (to 20%) fuelrods for its ageing medical-research reactor. Irans leaders also agreedto tell the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in writing of this

plan. We thought this was a gesture by them, a first demonstration oftrust, says Marco Aurlio Garcia, Lulas foreign-policy adviser.

But to American and European officials, some of whom have negotiatedwith Iran for years, it looked as if Lula and his advisers had naivelywalked into Mr Ahmadinejads time-wasting trap. The terms of the dealwere superficially similar to one reached under IAEA auspices lastOctober (which Iran walked away from). But now Iran has nearly twiceas much low-enriched uranium. And whereas the October deal wouldhave robbed Iran of the excuse to enrich to 20% itself (a lot closer tothe 90% needed for a bomb), it has since rushed to do just that. Nosooner had Lula left Tehran than Irans nuclear chief said thatenrichment to both the lower and the higher levels would continue. SoAmerica pushed forward with sanctions.

America and Brazil are now fuming at each other. Brazilian officialsclaim that the Tehran deal was in line with what Barack Obama hadsuggested to Lula in April, in a letter that they leaked to the local press.The Americans retort that this was just one of many communicationswith Brazil over the issue and has been plucked out of context. Worsethan the Tehran deal itself was the leak and Brazils rejection of a

Turkish proposal that both countries should have joined Lebanon inabstaining rather than voting against the resolution, according to asenior American official.

Under Lula, Brazils foreign policy has become more assertive. Thegovernment has recruited some 300 extra diplomats (and plans to add asimilar number over the next four years). It has strengthened its tieswith other emerging powers such as China, India, Russia and SouthAfrica. Brazil now has more diplomatic missions in Africa than Britainhas. Lulas government has claimed leadership in Latin America moreforcefully than its predecessors. And it has played a more active role onglobal issues such as trade, climate change and regulating theinternational financial system.

Much of this new assertiveness flows naturally from Brazils growingpower, which stems from stability, a robust democracy, faster economicgrowth and successful social policies. It has generally been welcomed bythe United States and Europe. But in the past couple of years Lula has

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taken up some more controversial stances. He has offered uncriticalbacking to Venezuelas Hugo Chvez and Cubas Castro brothers. And hehas struck up a friendship with Mr Ahmadinejad. All this goes down wellat home with his Workers Party. His opponents detect a streak ofanachronistic anti-Americanism.

The attempt to negotiate with Iran is part of assuming ourresponsibility to promote peace and security in the world, says AntonioPatriota, a senior diplomat. But it has given ammunition to the domesticcritics of Lulas foreign policy, who include some prominent retireddiplomats (and, they say, many serving ones). The Iranian adventure isincomprehensible, especially since there are various conflicts closer tous in which we havent tried, or havent managed, to mediate, wroteSrgio Amaral, a former ambassador, in O Estado, a So Paulonewspaper. He worries that Lula has gained nothing and succeeded onlyin drawing attention to Brazils refusal to accept enhanced outsideinspection of its own peaceful nuclear programme (it says this wouldforce it to divulge technological secrets, and that it allows Argentina toinspect its facilities freely under a bilateral agreement).

Lulas adventure in Tehran smacks of the overconfidence of a politicianwho basks in an approval rating of over 70% and who sees the Iraq warand the financial crisis as having irreparably damaged American powerand credibility. But the United States is still Brazils second-largesttrading partner. Although some American and Brazilian officials are keento prevent ill-will over Iran from spoiling co-operation in other areas, it

nevertheless may do so. The United States Congress may be even lesswilling to support the elimination of a tariff on Brazils sugar-basedethanol, for example.

Lula wants the UN reformed to reflect todays world, with Brazil gaininga permanent seat on the Security Council. But by choosing to apply hisviews on how the world should be run to an issue of pressing concern toAmerica and Europe, and in which Brazil has no obvious nationalinterest, Lula may only have lessened the chances that he will get hisway.