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Presenter:Darren Kriticos
An Introduction to CLIMEX
Bob Sutherst, Gunter MaywaldDarren Kriticos and Tania Yonow
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SELAMAT DATANGKuala Lumpur
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Housekeeping
• Exits• Fire assembly point• Mobile Telephones (silent please)• Dinner ??
– Attendees– Venue
• Daily Programme
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Daily Programme
• 8:30 – 10.00 Morning Session 1• 10:00 – 10:30 Morning Coffee/Tea• 10:30 – 12:30 Morning Session 2• 12:30 – 1:15 pm Lunch• 1:15 – 3:00 Afternoon session 1• 3:00 – 3:30 Coffee/Tea• 3:30 – 5:00 Afternoon Session 2
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Outcomes of Training
• Appreciation of the conceptual basis of CLIMEX
• Provision of a context for plot studies
• Inference of species’ climatic requirements from their distributions
• Inference of geographical and seasonal climatic suitability, length of growing season, number of generations pa, nature of limiting effects
• Skills in operating CLIMEX software
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CLIMEX Course Programme• Overview Friday
• Match Climates Friday
• The CLIMEX Model Friday
–Compare Locations Friday
–Compare Years Saturday
– Species Fitting Saturday
• MetManager Saturday
• MapManager Saturday
• Own Species Fitting Sunday
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Approaches to Climate‐Matching
• Pattern‐matching of meteorological and/‐environmental Data
• (Eg. BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, CLIMATE, Floramap, GAMs, GARP, GRASP, HABITAT, Logistic Regression / Discriminant Functions)
• See Kriticos, D. J. & Randall, R. P. (2001). A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. In: Groves, R.H., Panetta, F.D., and Virtue, J.G., Eds. Weed Risk Assessment. Melbourne, Australia: CSIRO Publishing pp. 61‐79.
• Process‐oriented modelling • CLIMEX, NAPPFAST
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Matching Months
Log Regression
Matching Extremes
BIOCLIM
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Log RegressionCLIMEX
Comparison of ResultsCLIMEX & Logistic Regression
Sutherst, R. W. & Bourne, A. S. (2009) Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms. Biological Invasions, 11, 1231-1237. Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
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Toolbox
Match Climates CLIMEX Model
MetManager
MapManager
Compare
Locations
Compare
YearsPersonal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
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Introduction to CLIMEX
Exercise 1Becoming familiar with CLIMEX
Flythrough the package
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Starting CLIMEX
CLIMEX“applications”
.GMD
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Stored settings for the currently selected model
.DXS
CLIMEX“applications”
.GMD
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Stored settings for the currently selected model
.DXS
CLIMEX“applications”
.GMD
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Simulation File (*.dxs)
• Model name
• Parameter sets in use
• Model and module settings
(Preferences dialog)
• Formats for tables, maps and graphs
• SequencesText file – you can edit in Notepad,but best to let CLIMEX update it
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Match Climates‘poor person’s climate‐matching’
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Match Climates
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Introduction to Match Climates
• ‘Home’ and ‘Away’• Weighting• Masking (Match Period)• Scenarios
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Away LocationsHome Location
Match Climates
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Away LocationsHome Region
Match Climates (Regional)
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Match Climates Screen
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Tutorial 1Comparing Climates
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Match with the World
• No weighting or masking; weight and mask• Brisbane (Sub‐Tropics)• Amsterdam (Temperate)• Athens (Mediterranean)• Beijing (Continental Temperate)• Singapore (Tropical)• Cairo (Arid Zone)• Your Home Towns
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Cool / Wet
Hot / Dry
AB
C
The Direction of Climate Differences Matters
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At the Edge of the Range
Nairobi is marginal for R. appendiculatus
Match Nairobi with Kenya (use Africa)Compare Tmax for Kibos (0.68), Muguga (0.76)
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At the Edge of the Range
Kibos is more favourable for R. appendiculatusMuguga is less favourable
Nairobi is marginal for R. appendiculatus
Match Nairobi with Kenya (use Africa)Compare Tmax for Kibos (0.68), Muguga (0.76)
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Tem
pera
ture
-5
-10
New Orleans
Mount Tamborine
Averages Don’t Tell the Whole Story
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Brisbane (Australia) Match With Thomasville (USA)
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Is Winter Too Coldor
Not Warm Enough?
Exercise: Match Tmin & Tmax
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How Cold Are You, Then?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Av
erage Tempe
ratures (oC)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Mount Tamborine
Ipswich
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Using Nature’s Water Storage
Flow of Water
Water
Evapotranspiration
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Exercise: Match Soil Moisture
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Masking ExerciseMatch Temperate & Tropical
Match Nairobi with European locations in summer.
Nairobi with Equatorial zone set to 10, including April 30 ‐ September 2.
Map CMI for Europe to see the similarity between Nairobi and European summer
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Applications
Biological Control
Exercise: Discussion
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Useful References• Csurhes, S. M. & Kriticos, D. J. (1994) Gleditsia triacanthos L.
(Caesalpiniaceae), another thorny, exotic fodder tree gone wild. Plant Protection Quarterly, 9, 101‐105.
• Dhileepan, K., Senaratne, K. A. D. W. & Raghu, S. (2006) A systematic approach to biological control agent exploration and prioritisation for prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica ssp. indica). Australian Journal of Entomology, 45, 303‐307.
• Robertson, M. P., Kriticos, D. J. & Zachariades, C. (2008) Climate matching techniques to narrow the search for biological control agents. Biological Control, 46, 442‐452.
• Kriticos, D. J. (2012) Regional climate‐matching to estimate current and future biosecurity threats. Biological Invasions.
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CLIMEX MODELCompare Locations
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Point Distribution Data
• Assumption that if a species has been recorded at a location, the climate is suitable
• GBIF, MOBOT, etc.• Varying precision, meaning, time of capture
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• Doing the possible
• ‘Data’ availability
• ‘Intelligent’ results cf. Match Climates
CLIMEX ‐ Being Pragmatic ‘Garbage’ In‐‘Pure Wisdom’ Out
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‘Where’ is as important as ‘When’
Living at the margin is more exciting but dangerous
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Compare Locations Screen
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Cane Toad
Tiger Snake
Tutorial 2Getting started on CLIMEX modelling
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CLIMEX: Axe or scalpel?
View from an aeroplane
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Back‐to‐Front
Reductionist Modelling
HCDW
Inferential Modelling
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Taking the Bad With the Good
Time of Year
Relative change in
pop
ulation grow
th Growth Season Survival Season
1.0
-1.0
0
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• Statistical description versustransparent mechanisms
• Hypothesis for species
What’s In a Model?
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Some CLIMEX Theory…
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EI = GIA x SI x SX,
where GIA is the Annual Growth Index,
SI is the combined Annual Stress, and
SX is the product of interaction terms involving each stress.
Eco‐climatic Index
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Annual GIAGIA = 100(GIW)/52,
where GIW is the Weekly Growth Index,scaled between 0‐1, and
GIA is the Annual Growth Indexscaled between 0‐100.
52
i=1
Growth Index
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Weekly Growth Index
GIw = Instantaneous intrinsic rate of natural increase ‘r’ in relation to climate
Grow or Perish
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Living in Week‐tight CompartmentsWeekly Snapshots of ‘r’
Week 1, n
GI N
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Weekly GIWGIW = TI x MI (x DI x LI x RI x SV x BI)
where TI is the weekly Temperature IndexMI is the weekly Moisture IndexDI is the weekly Diapause IndexLI is the weekly Light IndexRI is the weekly Radiation IndexSV is the weekly Substrate IndexBI is the weekly Biotic Index
Growth Index
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![Page 53: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
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Medfly: USA, Oklahoma
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
Tempe
rature o C
0
25
50
75Rainfall (m
m)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Index
MI
GITI
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![Page 54: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
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Exercise
Run Compare Locations in Australia forRussian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia)
Look at detailed Growth Charts at a few locations
Note the relationship between:Temperature IndexMoisture IndexGrowth Index
![Page 55: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
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CLIMEX Parameter Values
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DV0 DV1 DV2 DV3
Tempe
rature In
dex
However…
Temperature Index
Temperature
![Page 57: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
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Temperature Index (Iq)
A = accumulated degree‐days above DV0 assuming a constant temperature of DV1Q = area under the temperature curve above DV0
Iq = Q/A, if Q A, then Iq = 1
![Page 58: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
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Temperature Index (Ih)
DV2 DV3
1
Ih
Maximum Temperature
![Page 59: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
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Weekly Temperature Index
Annual Temperature Index52
i=1TIA = 100(TIW)/52
Temperature Index
DV2 DV3
1
Ih
Maximum Temperature
X
TIW = Iq x Ih
![Page 60: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
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Flow of Water
Water
Evapotranspiration
Moisture
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SM0 SM1 SM2 SM3
Moisture Index
Moisture Index
Soil Moisture
![Page 62: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
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Medfly – Western Oklahoma
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Soil
Moi
stur
e / M
oist
ure
Inde
x
Soil MoistureMedfly Moisture Index
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Soil Moisture vs Moisture Index
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LT1 LT0
Ligh
t Ind
ex
Light Index
Daylength
1
![Page 64: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
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Diapause Parameters
• DPD0 Entry Daylength• DPT0 Entry Temperature• DPT1 Exit Temperature• DPD Min. days in diapause• DPSW Winter/Summer switch
![Page 65: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
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Diapause
InDiapause
(no stress accumulation)
DPD0DPT0
DPT1(DPD)
DPSW0 1
DiapauseInduction
DPSW0 1
DiapauseTermination
at least DPD days
![Page 66: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
© CSIRO
DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause
EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met
Diapause
InDiapause
(no stress accumulation)
DPD0DPT0
DPT1(DPD)
DPSW0 1
DiapauseInduction
DPSW0 1
DiapauseTermination
at least DPD days
![Page 67: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
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SV0 SV1 SV2 SV3
Substrate Index
Substrate Variable
Substrate Index(Physical or Biotic)
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Biotic Index
• Competition (SIP0 < 0)• Synergy (SIP0 > 0)
Allows modelling of interacting species
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© CSIRO
BIW(1) = 1 + SIP01 X TGIW(2)
BIW(2) = 1 + SIP02 X TGIW(1)
• Competition (SIP0 < 0)• Synergy (SIP0 > 0)
Biotic Index
Allows modelling of interacting species
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![Page 70: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
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EI = GIA x SI x SX
where GIA is the Annual Growth Index
SI is the combined Annual Stress
SX is the product of interaction terms involving each stress
Eco‐climatic Index
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![Page 71: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
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Stresses
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What Happens at the Edge of the Range?
N
DRY WET
Moisture GradientLow High
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SI = (1‐CS/100)(1‐DS/100)(1‐HS/100)(1‐WS/100),
where SI is the Annual Stress Index, scaled between 0‐1, and CS, DS, HS and WS are Cold, Dry, Hot and Wet stress respectively.
Stress InteractionsSX is the product of interaction terms involving a temperature and a moisture stress, i.e. CDX, CWX, HDX and HWX are the annual cold–dry, cold–wet, hot–dry and hot–wet stress interaction indices.
Stresses
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Accumulating Stress[Mild + Slow] or [Severe + Fast]
Temperature oC
Stre
ss R
ate
0 15
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© CSIRO
Time
Accu
mul
ated
Stre
ss
100
0
Accumulating Stress[Mild + Slow] or [Severe + Fast]
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![Page 76: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
© CSIRO
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
0 2 4 6Week
Stre
ssTotal Accumulated StressWeekly Stress
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© CSIRO
How Cold Are You, Then?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35M
onth
ly A
vera
ge T
empe
ratu
re (o
C)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Mount Tamborine
Ipswich
14 percentiles
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![Page 78: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
© CSIRO
Exercise
Run Compare Locations in Australia forRussian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia)
Look at detailed Growth Charts at a few locations
Note the relationship between:Eco‐climatic IndexGrowth IndexStress Indices
![Page 79: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
© CSIRO
Tutorial 3Climate Change and Irrigation
Scenarios
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© CSIRO
Days 3 and 4• The MetManager• The MapManager• Review of CLIMEX functions• Some notes on parameters• Parameter Fitting• Compare Years• Using the Grid Database• What would you like to know?
• Fitting your own species
![Page 81: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
© CSIRO
The MetManager
![Page 82: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
© CSIRO
The MapManager
![Page 83: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
© CSIRO
CLIMEX Explained
![Page 84: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
© CSIRO
Temperature Index
DV2 DV3
1
Ih
Maximum Temperature
X
DV0 DV1 DV2 DV3
Tempe
rature In
dex
![Page 85: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
© CSIRO
SM0 SM1 SM2 SM3
Moi
stur
e In
dex
Moisture Index
Soil Moisture
![Page 86: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
© CSIRO
LT1 LT0
Ligh
t Ind
ex
Light Index
Daylength
1
![Page 87: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
© CSIRO
Cold StressToo cold (minimum temperatures)
TTCSTHCS
Not warm enough (degree‐days)
DTCS (above DVCS)DHCS
Too cold (average temperatures)
TTCSATHCSA
![Page 88: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
© CSIRO
TTCS
THCS
Cold Stress (1)
Minimum Temperature
![Page 89: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
© CSIRO
DTCS
DHCS
Cold Stress (2)
Day-degrees above DVCS
![Page 90: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
© CSIRO
TTCSA
THCSA
Cold Stress (3)
Average Temperature
![Page 91: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
© CSIRO
Heat Stress
Too hot (maximum temperatures)
TTHSTHHS
Not cool enough (degree‐days)
DTHS (above DV3)DHHS
![Page 92: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
© CSIRO
TTHS
THHS
Heat Stress (1)
Maximum Temperature
![Page 93: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
© CSIRO
DTHS
DHHS
Degree-days above DV3
Heat Stress (2)
![Page 94: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
© CSIRO
SMDS
HDS
Dry Stress
Soil Moisture
![Page 95: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
© CSIRO
SMWS
HWS
Wet Stress
Soil Moisture
![Page 96: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
© CSIRO
Stress vs Growth Thresholds
Soil Moisture/Temperature
![Page 97: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
© CSIRO
Cold‐Wet Stress
•DTCW
•MTCW
•PCW
Stress accumulates only when this number of degree‐days above DV0 is accumulated per week.
Stress accumulates only when this level of soil moisture is exceeded
Rate of stress accumulation
![Page 98: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
© CSIRO
Hot‐Wet Stress
•TTHW
•MTHW
•PHW
Stress accumulates only when the weekly maximum temperature exceeds this parameter.
Stress accumulates only when this level of soil moisture is exceeded
Rate of stress accumulation
![Page 99: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
© CSIRO
Cold‐Dry Stress
•DTCD
•MTCD
•PCD
Stress accumulates only when this number of degree‐days above DV0 is not achieved in any week.
Stress accumulates only when this level of soil moisture is not reached
Rate of stress accumulation
![Page 100: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
© CSIRO
Hot‐Dry Stress
•TTHD
•MTHD
•PHD
Stress accumulates only when the weekly maximum temperature exceeds this parameter.
Stress accumulates only when this level of soil moisture is not reached.
Rate of stress accumulation
![Page 101: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
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Hot‐Dry Stress
Weekly Stress Rate =
(Tmax – TTHD) x (MTHD – SM) x PHD
while Tmax > TTHD and SM < MTHD
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Tutorial 4Stress Indices
Scenarios
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Generation Time Parameter
PDD
Minimum day‐degrees above DV0 needed to complete a generation
![Page 104: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
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PDD Example
• Prickly Acacia (Acacia nilotica)• Run Acnil, set PDD to 0 temporarily
– Note EI pattern– explain the deficiencies
• Add PDD back in and run– Note difference– Note how positive GI exceeds range of EI– Note high EI at range boundary
• Run climate change scenario
![Page 105: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
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• Pest Risk Analysis
• Quarantine (Tutorials 6, 7)
• Biological Control (Tutorial 5)
CLIMEX Applications
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 106: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
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How do we judge the quality of a CLIMEX model?
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How do we judge the quality of a CLIMEX model?
• Agrees with all qualified location data– EI >= 1
• Parameters are biologically reasonable• No excessive climate suitability
• AUC/ROC is INAPPROPRIATE– Measures aspects of the model that are irrelevant to invasive species, and most other modelling questions
– Says as much or more about sampling biases as it does about model behaviour
![Page 108: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
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How do we decide when to stop modelling?
![Page 109: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
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How do we decide when to stop modelling?
• When we can’t improve one aspect of the model, without sacrificing another
• When our research question has been answered
• When we have a publishable model– Defendable– Useful
![Page 110: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
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• Effective data‐base ‐ close to infinity
50 Locs x 6+ Factors x 52 Weeks = 15,000
• Parameter range – wide domain
• Visual fitting – concealed rigour
Seeing Is Believing
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![Page 111: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
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-100
400
300
200
100
00
Darwin
Launceston
Rockhampton
Coober Pedy
Canberra
Temperature Ranges (0C) Australia
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![Page 112: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
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0
400
300
200100
DarwinLauncestonRockhampton
Coober PedyCanberra
Rainfall Ranges (mm) Australia
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 113: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
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• Distributions are dynamic
• What quality is your data on species’ distributions?
• How complete was the sampling?
Data Quality
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![Page 114: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
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Key Assumptions
• Climate is the only factor limiting the distribution
• Species interactions & other barriers are detectable as internal inconsistencies if significant
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Species Parameters
• Accessible from Parameter Grid Window or Parameter Tree Window
• Parameter Grid more suitable for CLIMEX
• Don’t forget Parameter Comments
• Parameter limits pre‐set by CLIMEX
• There is inter‐dependence between parameters
![Page 116: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
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• What do you sense?
• How do you feel?
Your Personal Comfort Index
Species Parameter Fitting
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 117: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
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Species Parameter Fitting
ExerciseCodling Moth Distribution
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
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Codling Moth ‐ Distribution
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Codling Moth ‐ Parameter Fitting
• Create convenient Location Selection that includes the required meteorological data
• Create a map region that covers the area considered
• Select a starting template parameter set
Some preparation
![Page 120: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
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Codling Moth ‐ Parameter Fitting
Examine the known distribution
• Survives in the cold weather of northern Europe• Survives in the warmer, dry Mediterranean region• Absent from wet, tropical regions of Africa
![Page 121: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
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Codling Moth ‐ Parameter Fitting
Examine the known distribution
• Survives in the cold weather of northern Europe• Survives in the warmer, dry Mediterranean region• Absent from wet, tropical regions of Africa
Choose Temperate Template to start, but set DTCS to 25oC
![Page 122: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
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Codling Moth Map 1
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 123: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
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Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 124: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
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Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
Examine locationsCold Stress ?Heat Stress ?Dry Stress ?
![Page 125: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
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Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
Western Asia is indicated as being too hot and dry for the moth.Northern Europe and eastern European countries are too cold.
As the known range of the moth includes these areas,the corresponding parameters need to be adjusted.
![Page 126: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
© CSIRO
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
Western Asia is indicated as being too hot and dry for the moth.Northern Europe and eastern European countries are too cold.
As the known range of the moth includes these areas,the corresponding parameters need to be adjusted.
First line of attack might be to reduce the cold stress. How?
![Page 127: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/127.jpg)
© CSIRO
Western Asia is indicated as being too hot and dry for the moth.Northern Europe and eastern European countries are too cold.
As the known range of the moth includes these areas,the corresponding parameters need to be adjusted.
However, knowledge of the insect tells us that it has anobligate winter diapause.
First line of attack might be to reduce the cold stress. How?
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 128: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/128.jpg)
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From literature sources (see User’s Guide p45) we know:
Diapause is initiated with decreasing daylength, somewhere between 13 and 18 hours of daylight, and when summer temperatures drop below 15oC.
About 3 months below the developmental threshold are requiredfor successful completion of diapause.
Diapause is terminated when the necessary period of coolinghas been completed, and temperatures begin to rise between 0oC and 10oC.
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 129: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/129.jpg)
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These findings indicate that the diapause parameters be set as follows:
DPD0: 14 hoursDPT0: 11oCDPT1: 6oCDPD: 90 daysDPSW: 0 (winter diapause)
See User’s Guide for more explanation
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 130: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/130.jpg)
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Also adjust the following parameters:
DV0: 10oC TTCS ‐ 0oCDV1: 20oC THCS ‐ 0DV2: 30oC DTCS ‐ 0 degree‐daysDV3: 33oC DHCS ‐ 0
PDD ‐ 600 degree‐days
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
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Codling Moth Map 2
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 132: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/132.jpg)
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Examine locationsCold Stress ?Degree‐days ?
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 133: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/133.jpg)
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Northern locations have a positive GI,but degree‐days < 600
Try reducing PDD to (say) 450
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 134: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/134.jpg)
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Codling Moth Map 3
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 135: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/135.jpg)
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Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
Examine locationsHeat Stress ?Dry Stress ?
![Page 136: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/136.jpg)
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Adjust the following parameters:
Heat Stress
TTHS - 33ºCTHHS – 0.0003
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
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© CSIRO
Adjust the following parameters:
Heat Stress
TTHS - 33ºCTHHS – 0.0003
Moisture Index
SM0 – 0.02SM1 – 0.08SM2 – 1.0SM3 – 1.2
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 138: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/138.jpg)
© CSIRO
Adjust the following parameters:
Heat Stress
TTHS - 33ºCTHHS – 0.0003
Moisture Index
SM0 – 0.02SM1 – 0.08SM2 – 1.0SM3 – 1.2
Dry Stress
SMDS – 0.02HDS – -0.003
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
![Page 139: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/139.jpg)
© CSIRO
Adjust the following parameters:
Heat Stress
TTHS - 33ºCTHHS – 0.0003
Moisture Index
SM0 – 0.02SM1 – 0.08SM2 – 1.0SM3 – 1.2
Dry Stress
SMDS – 0.02HDS – -0.003
Wet Stress
SMWS – 1.2HWS – 0.0005
Codling Moth Parameter Fitting
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Codling Moth Map 4
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 141: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/141.jpg)
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Codling Moth World Distribution
![Page 142: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/142.jpg)
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Realistically, it could take up to a month to create a good species parameter file that will give a good match to the known distribution and be consistent with any known biological data.
Parameter Fitting
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![Page 144: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/144.jpg)
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CliMond 500th user!
• www.climond.org• As of this morning 497 registered users• 2 weeks to go to our first birthday!
![Page 146: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/146.jpg)
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Species X
Parameter Fitting Exercise
![Page 147: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/147.jpg)
© CSIRO
Parameter Validation
![Page 148: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/148.jpg)
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Projection
?
![Page 149: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/149.jpg)
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• Capture all positive locations cfstatistics
• Use CLIMEX to set context for every new species study
• Listen to CLIMEX when fitting parameter values
Conclusions
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
![Page 150: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/150.jpg)
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• Feedback – Discussion (10 min)
• Problems?
Parameter Fitting
![Page 151: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/151.jpg)
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Importing point distribution data into CLIMEX
![Page 152: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/152.jpg)
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Walking the Talk – a Procedure
• Collate species distribution and other data• Fit model to species native range (save the model)
– Start with stresses– Move on to growth indices
• Check, and if necessary refit model to a sub‐set of species invaded range
• Validate (test) model with independent data from species invaded range elsewhere
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Species Information
• Evidence for Non‐Climatic Factors • Stress• Constraints• Growth• Goodness of Fit• Validation• Source and Destination Risks• Conclusions
Template for CLIMEX Analysis
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
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Dymex – for when you crave more detail
• Insect population dynamics– Queensland Fruit Fly (Bactrocera tryoni)
• Weed landscape metapopulation dynamics– Acacia nilotica
• Weed biocontrol– Cleopus japonicus on Buddleja davidii
• Integrated weed management– Bitou bush, seed fly (Mesoclanis polana), fire, herbicide
![Page 155: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/155.jpg)
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Dymex population dynamics modelling
• Mechanistic modelling • Modular• Discrete timestep• Life history processes• Cohorts• Integrate multiple taxa
![Page 156: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/156.jpg)
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Why Dymex?
DYMEX automates much of the model building and simulation procedures:
• Generation of computer code• Support system with modules for routine functions:
– Output tables, graphs and now also maps – Meteorological data inputs– Optimisation and sensitivity analysis
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Why Dymex?
• Re ‐useable & exchangeable modules • Environmental management drivers and their interactions
• Biological processes and attributes to associate with lifecycle stages
• 'Inherit' / enhance properties • Library of functions• Spatial modelling platform
![Page 158: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/158.jpg)
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The DYMEX Builder
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
Module Library
Timer
Data File Reader
Expression
Event
Evaporation Model
Soil Moisture Model
Lifecycle
Function Library
User Interface
Model DescriptionFile
![Page 159: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/159.jpg)
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Structure of a DYMEX Model
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
Timer
File Reader
Daylength
Latitude
Evaporation
Lifecycle
Soil Moisture
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© CSIRO
Structure of a DYMEX Model
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
Timer
File Reader
Daylength
Latitude
Evaporation
Lifecycle
Soil Moisture
Mo
de
l Ou
tpu
t
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Structure of a DYMEX Model
Personal Use Only - Not for Further Distribution
Timer
File Reader
Daylength
Latitude
Evaporation
Lifecycle
Soil Moisture
Mo
de
l Ou
tpu
t
File
Keyboard
![Page 162: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/162.jpg)
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Growing a DYMEX Model
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Model Complexity
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The modules• Timer
– Days since start– Day of year– Simulation date
• Meterological data [MetBase]– Minimum Temperature– Maximum Temperature
• Average daily temperature [Expression]• Bug lifecycle [Lifecycle]
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Add an adult lifestage
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Add transfer to adult
![Page 166: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/166.jpg)
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Add fecundity and reproduction
Fecundity fixed at establishment at 25
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Some DYMEX examples
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Insect population dynamics
• Yonow, T., Zalucki, M. P., Sutherst, R. W., Dominiak, B., Maywald, G. F., Maelzer, D. A. & Kriticos, D. J. (2004) Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland Fruit Fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort‐based approach incorporating the effects of weather.Ecological Modelling, 173, 9‐30.
![Page 169: An Introduction to CLIMEX - WordPress.com · 2017. 8. 31. · DPD > 0 is equivalent to obligate diapause EI is set to 0 if induction conditions not met Diapause In Diapause (no stress](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022081523/5fd542f28e683748e1530a6f/html5/thumbnails/169.jpg)
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QLD Fruit Fly
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Weed landscape metapopulationdynamics
• Kriticos, D. J., Brown, J. R., Maywald, G. F., Radford, I. D., Nicholas, D. M., Sutherst, R. W. & Adkins, S. A. (2003) SPAnDX: a process‐based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica. Ecological Modelling, 163, 187‐208.
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SPAnDX
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Interacting Lifecycles
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Weed biocontrol
• Buddleja davidii and Cleopus japonicus• Kriticos, D. J., Watt, M. S., Withers, T. M., Leriche, A. & Watson, M. (2009) A process‐based population dynamics model to explore target and non‐target impacts of a biological control agent. Ecological Modelling, 220, 2035‐2050.
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© CSIRO
Buddleja‐Cleopus Major Model Components
• Plant– Germination
• Hydrothermal– Growth
• Temperature• Soil moisture• LAI• Plant Competition• Age• Herbivory
– Survival– Reproduction
• Insect– Development– Survival
• Age• Temperature• Host resource
– Reproduction• Temperature
– Dispersal• Host resource• Poorly understood!
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Buddleja‐Cleopus Model Lifecycle schematic
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Integrated weed management• Kriticos, D. J., Stuart, R. M. & Ash, J. E. (2003) Exploring interactions between cultural and biological control techniques: Modelling bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. monilifera) and a seed fly (Mesoclanis polana). Proceedings of the XI International Symposium on Biological Control of Weeds (eds J. M. Cullen, D. T. Briese, D. J. Kriticos, W. M. Lonsdale, L. Morin & J. K. Scott), pp. 559‐573. Canberra, Australia.
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© CSIRO
B2MP Description• Climate‐driven & cohort‐based• Daily timestep• Temperature, rainfall and Pot Evap. inputs• Plant and animal growth and development driven by growth indices
• Dormancy, rotting, dispersal and germination of seedbank
• Density dependence seedlings, eggs, larvae• Simulates herbicide and fire effects• Built within DYMEX
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© CSIRO
Bitou Bush lifecycle in B2MP
Dormant Seed
Seedling Juvenile Adult
Ray Floret
Sterile Fruit
Standing Dead Plant
Immature Fruit
Germinable Seed
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© CSIRO
Mesoclanis polana
Chrysanthemoides monilifera
Egg Gravid Female
Teneral Female
Ray Florets
Sterile Fruit
Fruits not attacked
Attackedfruits
Dormant Seed
Immature Fruit
Eggs laid onto ray florets.
Larvae & pupae
attack fruits.
Larvae & Pupae
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“Automatic” Species Parameter Fitting
• Genetic algorithm in Version 3
• Automatic fitting is not a panacea
Discussion
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Case study: Anastrepha fraterculus
Species Coeff.-1
0
1
Legend#* Known distribution
Species Convex Hull
World CountriesNative
0
1
CX Species range Distribution Toolbox
(set of models and scripts)
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Genetic Algorithm ResultsGeneration 1, Best value: 99.083 Average: 94.789 StdDev: 7.9087*** Best Genotype: Values: ‐19.72 ‐0.0523 20 ‐0.0942 31.585
0.0303 76 0.0357 0.0972 ‐0.0523 1.303 0.0113 38.305 12.04 45.5; Fitness 99.0826
Generation 2, Best value: 99.083 Average: 95.503 StdDev: 5.1778*** Best Genotype: Values: ‐19.72 ‐0.0523 20 ‐0.0942 31.585
0.0303 76 0.0357 0.0972 ‐0.0523 1.303 0.0113 38.305 12.04 45.5; Fitness 99.0826
Generation 57, Best value: 99.185 Average: 97.946 StdDev: 0.96942*** Best Genotype: Values: ‐12.12 ‐0.0744 60.6 ‐0.0627 30.52
0.0527 57.8 0.0616 0.1545 ‐0.0381 4.08175 0.055 26.11 5.88 35.84; Fitness 99.1845
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Genetic Algorithm In ActionKnown Distribution
Reference File
ModelledCore Distribution
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Regional Climate Matching
• Compare the climate of a (home) region to that of a selected set of (away) locations
• Independent of species biology• Overall level of similarity given by the ‘Composite Match Index’–product of selected component indices:
e.g. Tmax, Tmin, Rain Total, RH, Rain Pattern
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Regional Climate Match Index Results –New Zealand
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Climate Datasetso Enhanced point locations database (~ 3 000 points)o CliMond 0.5 degree and 10’ grids for terrestrial areas
– Historical (1950‐2000) from Worldclim and CRU– IPCC AR4 datasets
o Based on CRU 0.5 degree gridded dataseto Selected periods to 2100o GCMs: CSIRO3 and Miroco Scenarios: A1B, A2
– Köppen‐Geiger climate zones– Raw monthly climate variables– 36 Bioclim variables– CLIMEX Metman, ASCII Grid, ESRI Grid
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Exercise
CLIMEX Manual Diapause
Species Parameter Fitting
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© CSIRO
EI: Run 1 (14:44) North Americadat <Species 1>
No Climate ChangeVariable: EI
0
25
50
75
100
0 1,000
Mercator projection
No Diapause (23)
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© CSIRO
Obligate Winter Diapause (24)
EI: Run 1 (16:41) North Americadat <Species 1>
No Climate ChangeVariable: EI
0
25
50
75
100
0 1,000
Mercator projection
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© CSIRO
Obligate Summer Diapause (25)
EI: Run 3 (16:46) North Americadat <Species 1>
No Climate ChangeVariable: EI
0
25
50
75
100
0 1,000
Mercator projection
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Extracting Phenology from Geographic Distribution
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Exercise
Space and Time
Convert Tsetse (Glossina morsitans)Distribution to Seasonal Phenology
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Glossinamorsitans
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Core Range Western Uganda
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Range Margin South Africa
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Compare Years
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• Life’s ups and downs: GIw• Annual Waves• Raw is dangerous
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Compare Years
B. microplus with Amberley met data
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Raw is Dangerous
Daily
Weekly
AnnualCompare Locations
Compare Years
Tempe
rature
Why Compare Locations and Compare Years Don’t Talk to Each Other
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• Take monthly averages of daily meteorological data and then convert it back to weekly averages to introduce some smoothing
• Stress values often exceed 100 so you need to compare relative values
What Can You Do About It?
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Character Building: The Gold in Failure
When Wrong is Exciting
Exercise
Getting it Wrong for Good Reasons
Discussion & Tutorial 8
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When Equal is Not the Same
Variances
Exercise
Cane Toads in Florida
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When There Aren’t Enough Days in the Year
PDD
Exercise
Haemaphysalis
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What to do about Hiccups –When the Rain Comes Back?
Bimodal Rainfall
Exercise
East Africa
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How to Make your Results Look (Too) Good
Validation against Independent Data
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Aladdin’s Den
Treasure Trove Awaiting to be Discovered out there:
• Exploitation of spatial information
• Biological responses on geographical scales
• Detect role of climate vs other factors
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• Amblyomma ticks in Zimbabwe
• Old World Screw‐worm fly in Lybiao Irrigation
• Boophilus ticks in Africao Hybrid zone
• Gum leaf skeletoniser in Tasmaniao Extended native range
Some New Insights
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Species Parameter Fitting
Tutorial 7
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DPD0 10 hours
DPT0 10oC
DPT1 0oC
DPD 90 days
DPSW 0
Obligate Winter Diapause Parameters
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DPD0 10 hours
DPT0 30oC
DPT1 30oC
DPD 30 days
DPSW 1
Obligate Summer Diapause Parameters
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Websites
• CABI sponsored Demo of CLIMEX at: http://www.ento.csiro.au/climex/demo/climexdemowww.htm
• CLIMEX software & Patches from Hearne Scientifichttp://www.hearne.com.au
Resources
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CLIMEX Pathogen Models• Ekins, M. G., Aitken, E. A. B. & Goulter, K. C. (2002) Carpogenicgermination of Sclerotinia minor and potential distribution in Australia. Australasian Plant Pathology 31: 259‐265.• Lanoiselet, V., Cother, E.J. & Ash, G.J. (2002) Climex and Dymexsimulations of the potential occurrence of rice blast disease in south‐eastern Australia. Australasian Plant Pathology 31, 1‐7.• Yonow, T., Kriticos, D.J. & Medd, R.W. (2004) The potential geographic range of Pyrenophora semeniperda. Phytopathology 94, 805‐812.• Watt, M. S., Kriticos, D. J., Alcaraz, S., Brown, A. & Leriche, A. (2009) The hosts and potential geographic range of Dothistroma needle blight. Forest Ecology and Management, 257, 1505‐1519.• Pinkard, E. A., Kriticos, D. J., Wardlaw, T. J. & Carnegie, A. J. (2010) Estimating the spatio‐temporal risk of disease epidemics using a bioclimatic niche model. Ecological Modelling, 221, 2828‐2838.• Yonow, T., Hattingh, V. & De Villiers, M. (Submitted) CLIMEX Modelling of the potential global distribution of the citrus black spot disease caused by Guignardia citricarpa and the risk posed to Europe. Crop Protection.