an integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within fine-kopra) sofiev m, p....

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An integrated model for evaluating the emissions, atmospheric dispersion and risks caused by ambient air fine particulate matter - KOPRA Jaakko Kukkonen /7&RQVXOW 1RUGLF (QYLFRQ

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Page 1: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

An

inte

grat

ed m

odel

for

eval

uatin

g th

e em

issi

ons,

at

mos

pher

ic d

ispe

rsio

n an

d ris

ks c

ause

d by

am

bien

t air

fine

part

icul

ate

mat

ter

-K

OP

RA

Jaak

ko K

ukko

nen

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Page 2: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 3: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

The

pro

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es e

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in K

OP

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timat

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Pop

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expo

sure

an

d ris

k as

sess

men

t

Sou

rce:

Mat

ti Jo

hans

son,

SY

KE

Page 4: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Fin

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Page 5: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Fin

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Page 6: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Fin

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Page 7: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

NH

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Page 8: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

0

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Page 9: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Cos

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Page 10: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 11: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 12: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 13: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 14: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 15: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 16: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 17: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 18: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 19: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 20: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 21: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 22: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Exa

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Page 23: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 24: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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trat

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mm

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ary

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Page 25: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 26: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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M

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mi,

A.

Lesk

inen

, J.

K

ukko

nen,

J.

H

ärkö

nen

and

A.

Kar

ppin

en,

2002

. M

easu

rem

ents

an

d M

odel

ling

of

PM

2.5

Con

cent

ratio

ns N

ear

a M

ajor

Roa

d in

Kuo

pio,

Fin

land

. A

tmos

pher

icE

nviro

nmen

t 36

/25,

pp.

405

7-40

68.

Page 27: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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elsi

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, Kau

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anta

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Page 28: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Inte

rpre

tatio

n of

the

pred

icte

d re

sults

On

an a

nnua

l bas

is, t

he e

stim

ated

con

trib

utio

n fr

om

regi

onal

ly a

nd lo

ng-r

ange

tran

spor

ted

orig

in to

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obse

rved

PM

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varie

s fr

om le

ss th

an 5

0 %

in th

e ce

ntre

of

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sink

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0 %

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rea.

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subs

tant

ial.

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inte

r (T

< 0

), c

old

star

ts a

nd c

old

driv

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e am

ount

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igin

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cal t

raffi

c ap

prox

imat

ely

by 4

0 %

.

Page 29: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Pre

dict

ed v

s. o

bser

ved

daily

mea

n P

M2.

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ncen

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at t

wo

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4

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95x

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1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

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icte

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observed

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0.75

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7

R2 =

1

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05

1015

2025

3035

4045

5055

pred

icte

d

observed

Page 30: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Pre

dict

ed c

once

ntra

tions

of p

rimar

y P

M2.

5in

Eur

ope

and

in F

inla

nd in

200

0, a

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om

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ourc

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the

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i met

ropo

litan

are

a in

200

2 (µ

g/m

3 ). T

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esul

ts w

ere

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pute

d us

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emis

sion

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led

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ME

P, S

YK

E a

nd Y

TV

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, SIL

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I and

UD

M-F

MI m

odel

s. T

he s

patia

l res

olut

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0 km

for

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ope,

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m fo

r F

inla

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and

from

50

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00 m

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e H

elsi

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rea.

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Page 31: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 32: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 33: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 34: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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dict

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Page 35: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 36: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Aal

to,

K.

Häm

eri,

V-M

Ker

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en,

M K

ulm

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200

6. M

eteo

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Page 37: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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m. P

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, pp

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Page 38: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

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Page 39: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

PM

2.5

-con

cent

ratio

ndu

ring

an e

piso

dein

duce

dby

tem

pera

ture

inve

rsio

n on

22

Oct

ober

2002

. Mor

ning

rush

hour

,7:0

0 –

8:00

a.m

.

Page 40: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

PM

2.5

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cent

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ring

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dby

tem

pera

ture

inve

rsio

n on

22

Oct

ober

2002

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day,

11:0

0 –

12:0

0 a.

m.

Page 41: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

PM

2.5

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ober

2002

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ur,7

:00

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00 a

.m.

Page 42: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Con

clus

ions

1/2

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he n

atio

nal e

mis

sion

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prim

ary

PM

and

the

mai

n pr

ecur

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eval

uate

dus

ing

the

FR

ES

-m

odel

on a

res

olut

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x 1

km

2fo

r va

rious

sour

ceca

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ries

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ario

sin

199

0 -

2020

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ffici

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ious

PM

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issi

on r

educ

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enev

alua

ted

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rimar

y-, s

ulph

ate-

and

sea

salt-

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con

cent

ratio

nsha

vebe

enm

odel

led

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onal

ly, a

nd th

e to

talP

M2.

5 co

ncen

trat

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e H

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etro

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rea

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Page 44: An integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within FINE-KOPRA) Sofiev M, P. Siljamo, I. Valkama, M. Ilvonen and J. Kukkonen, 2006. A dispersion modelling system SILAM

Som

ere

cent

jour

nala

rtic

les

…P

ohjo

la, M

A, P

irjol

a, L

, Kuk

kone

n, J

, Kul

mal

a, M

. 200

3. M

odel

ling

of th

e in

fluen

ce o

f aer

osol

pro

cess

es fo

r th

e di

sper

sion

of v

ehic

ular

exh

aust

plu

mes

in

str

eet e

nviro

nmen

t. A

tmos

pher

icE

nviro

nmen

t37

(3),

pp.

339

-351

.

Kar

ppin

en, A

., H

ärkö

nen,

J.,

Kuk

kone

n, J

., A

arni

o, P

. and

Kos

kent

alo,

T.,

2004

. Sta

tistic

al m

odel

for

asse

ssin

g th

e po

rtio

n of

fine

par

ticul

ate

mat

ter

tran

spor

ted

regi

onal

ly a

nd lo

ng-r

ange

to u

rban

air.

Sca

nd. J

. Wor

k E

nviro

n.

Hea

lth, 3

0 su

ppl.

2: 4

7-53

.

Sof

iev

M, P

. Silj

amo,

I. V

alka

ma,

M. I

lvon

en a

nd J

. Kuk

kone

n, 2

006.

A

disp

ersi

on m

odel

ling

syst

em S

ILA

M a

nd it

s ev

alua

tion

agai

nst E

TE

X d

ata.

A

tmos

. Env

iron.

40

(200

6) 6

74–6

85.

Hus

sein

T, A

. Kar

ppin

en, J

. Kuk

kone

n, J

. Här

köne

n, P

.P. A

alto

, K. H

ämer

i, V

-M

Ker

min

en, M

Kul

mal

a, 2

006.

Met

eoro

logi

cal d

epen

denc

e of

siz

e-fr

actio

nate

d nu

mbe

r co

ncen

trat

ions

of u

rban

aer

osol

par

ticle

s. A

tmos

. Env

iron.

40

(200

6)

1427

–144

0.

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…an

d th

ere

are

som

eex

tend

edab

stra

cts

of th

e w

ork

in p

rogr

ess,

e.g

., …

Poh

jola

M A

, Pirj

ola

L, K

ukko

nen

J, K

arpp

inen

A,

Här

köne

n J

, and

Ket

zelM

, 200

5.

Com

bina

tion

of a

dis

pers

ion

mod

el a

nd a

n ae

roso

l pro

cess

mod

el f

or m

odel

ling

road

side

en

viro

nmen

t par

ticle

s, a

nd e

valu

atio

n w

ith m

easu

red

data

. In:

Sko

ulou

dis,

A.N

. et a

l.:

Pro

ceed

ings

of t

he 1

0th

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on H

arm

onis

atio

nw

ithin

Atm

osph

eric

D

ispe

rsio

n M

odel

ling

for

Reg

ulat

ory

Pur

pose

s, 1

7-20

Oct

ober

, 200

5, C

rete

, pp.

422

-426

.

Kou

sa A

, Aar

nio

P, K

ukko

nen

J, R

iikon

en K

, Ala

viip

pola

B, K

auha

niem

i M, K

arpp

inen

A,

Elo

lähd

e T

and

Kos

kent

alo

T, 2

005.

Ref

inem

ent o

f a d

eter

min

istic

pop

ulat

ion

expo

sure

m

odel

, and

its

appl

icat

ion

for

pred

ictin

g th

e ex

posu

res

of P

M2.

5in

hel

sink

iin

2002

, In:

S

okhi

, RS

, Mill

án, M

M, M

ouss

iopo

ulos

, N (

eds.

): P

roce

edin

gs (

CD

) of

the

5th

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

fere

nce

on U

rban

Air

Qua

lity,

Val

enci

a, 2

9-31

Mar

ch 2

005,

Uni

vers

ity o

f H

ertfo

rdsh

ire, U

K, 2

005.

ISB

N 1

-898

543-

92-5

. (4

page

s).

Kar

ppin

enA

, Kuk

kone

nJ,

Kau

hani

emiM

, Här

köne

nJ,

Nik

mo

J, S

okhi

RS

, Luh

ana

L,

Kou

saA

, Ala

viip

pola

B, K

oske

ntal

oT

and

Aar

nio

P, 2

005.

Eva

luat

ion

and

appl

icat

ion

of a

m

odel

for

the

urba

n an

d re

gion

al s

cale

con

cent

ratio

ns o

f PM

2.5,

In: S

okhi

, RS

, Mill

án,

MM

, Mou

ssio

poul

os, N

(ed

s.):

Pro

ceed

ings

(C

D)

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e 5t

h In

tern

atio

nal C

onfe

renc

eon

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lity,

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enci

a, 2

9-31

Mar

ch 2

005,

Uni

vers

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f Her

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shire

, UK

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N 1

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92-5

. (4

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