an integrated model for evaluating the emissions ... · ope (within fine-kopra) sofiev m, p....
TRANSCRIPT
An
inte
grat
ed m
odel
for
eval
uatin
g th
e em
issi
ons,
at
mos
pher
ic d
ispe
rsio
n an
d ris
ks c
ause
d by
am
bien
t air
fine
part
icul
ate
mat
ter
-K
OP
RA
Jaak
ko K
ukko
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titut
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atio
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elsi
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elsi
nki
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2002
-20
05
The
pro
cess
es e
valu
ated
in K
OP
RA
Em
issi
on
redu
ctio
nte
chno
logy
Em
issi
on
scen
ario
s
Atm
osph
eric
di
sper
sion
and
tr
ansf
orm
atio
n
Prim
ary
and
seco
ndar
y ae
roso
l
Ene
rgy
and
activ
itysc
enar
ios
Em
issi
on
redu
ctio
nes
timat
ion
Pop
ulat
ion
expo
sure
an
d ris
k as
sess
men
t
Sou
rce:
Mat
ti Jo
hans
son,
SY
KE
Fin
nish
Reg
iona
l Em
issi
on S
cena
rio (
FR
ES
) m
odel
55
- 2
020
- 5
050
- 2
00
200
- 8
008
00
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grue
nt c
alcu
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r pr
imar
y P
M a
nd p
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rsor
s•
TS
P, P
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0.1,
che
mic
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ompo
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e cl
asse
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NH
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sts
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ctor
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sub
sect
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rces
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rox.
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em
issi
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000
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ary
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icul
ate
mat
ter
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g/a)
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x 1
km
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vel,
pres
ente
dat
10
x 10
km
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id
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ck c
arbo
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km
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vel,
pres
ente
dat
10
x 10
km
2gr
id
Roa
dtr
affic
Res
iden
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com
bust
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ther
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a fl
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pers
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dyn
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s
Are
aB
omb
Poin
tem
issi
on
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pers
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phys
ics
&ch
emis
try
Lähd
e:
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ofie
v
�M
odel
s: H
IRL
AM
6 +
SIL
AM
�E
mis
sion
s: E
ME
P 20
00, n
atio
nall
y S
YK
E
�R
esol
utio
n 30
km
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nlan
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cale
s up
to 5
and
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g/m
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urop
e an
d F
inla
nd)
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cent
ratio
nsof
prim
ary
fine
part
icle
s(P
M2.
5) in
E
urop
ein
200
0
Onl
yF
inni
shem
issi
ons
incl
uded
SIL
AM
pre
dict
ions
for
prim
ary
PM
2.5
(left)
and
PM
2.5-
10(r
ight
),
in 2
000
(mg/
m3)
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dict
ed
sulp
hate
co
ncen
trat
ions
in
200
0
Em
issi
on: E
ME
PM
eteo
rolo
gy: H
IRLA
MD
ispe
rsio
n: S
ILA
M w
ith D
MA
T
chem
istr
y
Uni
t: µg
SO
4/ m
3
(up
to 1
00 µ
g S
O4
/ m3
)
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res
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30
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orec
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oriz
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4 ho
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pdat
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aily
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ut n
oon
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M2.
5, P
M10
, SO
2, S
O4
(an
d so
on e
xpec
ted:
sea
sal
t)
•co
mpu
tatio
n co
sts:
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80 C
PU
-hou
rs o
n th
e S
GI A
ltix
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x C
lust
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M
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M 1
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ir, S
O4
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O4
wet
dep
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02
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eros
ol o
bser
vatio
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re s
carc
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d do
not
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chem
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spe
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ho
wev
er, w
ork
is in
pro
gres
s to
com
pare
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tota
l mas
s co
ncen
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5 or
PM
10 +
SO
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Sea
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t⇒
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0 %
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M)
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redi
cted
ann
ual a
vera
ges
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in a
goo
d ag
reem
ent w
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easu
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orre
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mon
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ata
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year
200
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atio
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anel
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ean
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and
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odel
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ls d
ue to
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osol
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amic
s
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odul
e ha
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en c
reat
ed b
ut it
is to
o re
sour
ce-c
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min
g fo
r re
al s
imul
atio
ns
•a
diffe
rent
feas
ible
way
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andl
e th
e pr
oble
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xist
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t it
requ
ires
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t of w
ork
on c
hem
istr
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l dyn
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s
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res:
em
issi
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om s
atel
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rb+
PM
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ion
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M
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2.5st
Tiit
ta,
P.,
T.
Rau
nem
aa,
J.T
issa
ri,
T.
Yli-
Tuo
mi,
A.
Lesk
inen
, J.
K
ukko
nen,
J.
H
ärkö
nen
and
A.
Kar
ppin
en,
2002
. M
easu
rem
ents
an
d M
odel
ling
of
PM
2.5
Con
cent
ratio
ns N
ear
a M
ajor
Roa
d in
Kuo
pio,
Fin
land
. A
tmos
pher
icE
nviro
nmen
t 36
/25,
pp.
405
7-40
68.
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sto
035§
/200
2, ©
Ain
eist
ot: E
spoo
n, H
elsi
ngin
, Kau
niai
sten
ja V
anta
an m
ittau
sosa
stot
Inte
rpre
tatio
n of
the
pred
icte
d re
sults
On
an a
nnua
l bas
is, t
he e
stim
ated
con
trib
utio
n fr
om
regi
onal
ly a
nd lo
ng-r
ange
tran
spor
ted
orig
in to
the
obse
rved
PM
2.5
varie
s fr
om le
ss th
an 5
0 %
in th
e ce
ntre
of
Hel
sink
i to
mor
e th
an 9
0 %
in th
e ou
tski
rts
of th
e m
etro
polit
an a
rea.
The
influ
ence
of t
he c
old-
star
t and
col
d dr
ivin
g em
issi
ons
on th
e to
tal P
M2.
5 co
ncen
trat
ions
was
foun
d to
be
subs
tant
ial.
In w
inte
r (T
< 0
), c
old
star
ts a
nd c
old
driv
ing
incr
ease
d th
e am
ount
of t
he e
xhau
st e
mis
sion
s or
igin
ated
fr
om lo
cal t
raffi
c ap
prox
imat
ely
by 4
0 %
.
Pre
dict
ed v
s. o
bser
ved
daily
mea
n P
M2.
5co
ncen
trat
ions
at t
wo
stat
ions
–sc
atte
r pl
ot, C
orre
latio
n C
oeffi
cien
t squ
ared
(R
2 ) a
nd In
dex
of A
gree
men
t (IA
)
E/��.�
: R2
= 0
.60,
IA =
0.8
6C/��.�/
: R2
= 0
.57,
IA =
0.8
4
E/��.� y
= 0.
95x
+ 1.
02
R2 =
0.6
0
R2 =
1
0510152025303540455055
05
1015
2025
3035
4045
5055
pred
icte
d
observed
C/��.�/
y =
0.97
x -
0.75
R2 =
0.5
7
R2 =
1
0510152025303540455055
05
1015
2025
3035
4045
5055
pred
icte
d
observed
Pre
dict
ed c
once
ntra
tions
of p
rimar
y P
M2.
5in
Eur
ope
and
in F
inla
nd in
200
0, a
nd P
M2.
5fr
om
all s
ourc
es in
the
Hel
sink
i met
ropo
litan
are
a in
200
2 (µ
g/m
3 ). T
he r
esul
ts w
ere
com
pute
d us
ing
the
emis
sion
s co
mpi
led
by E
ME
P, S
YK
E a
nd Y
TV
, and
the
HIR
LAM
, SIL
AM
, CA
R-
FM
I and
UD
M-F
MI m
odel
s. T
he s
patia
l res
olut
ion
is 3
0 km
for
Eur
ope,
5 k
m fo
r F
inla
nd,
and
from
50
to 2
00 m
in th
e H
elsi
nki m
etro
polit
an a
rea.
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lt, e
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ellin
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ynam
ics
in th
e a
tmo
sphe
re
usi
ng th
e M
ON
O32
and
CA
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els
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C (
urba
n ba
ckgr
ound
)
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tion
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leat
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ositi
onCon
dens
atio
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vapo
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urba
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tern
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two
sets
of
emis
sion
fac
tors
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san
d er
ror
bars
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sure
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ts
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005
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b1
8 a
t 9 p
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8 a
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.m.
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sein
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en,
J. K
ukko
nen,
J.
Här
köne
n, P
.P.
Aal
to,
K.
Häm
eri,
V-M
Ker
min
en,
M K
ulm
ala,
200
6. M
eteo
rolo
gica
lde
pend
ence
of s
ize-
frac
tiona
ted
num
ber
conc
entr
atio
nsof
urb
anae
roso
lpar
ticle
s. A
tmos
. Env
iron.
40
(200
6) 1
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eoro
logy
, ai
r po
llutio
n an
d po
pula
tion
expo
sure
Atm
os.
Che
m. P
hys.
Dis
c., V
ol. 6
, pp
1867
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3,ht
tp://
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PM
2.5
-con
cent
ratio
ndu
ring
an e
piso
dein
duce
dby
tem
pera
ture
inve
rsio
n on
22
Oct
ober
2002
. Mor
ning
rush
hour
,7:0
0 –
8:00
a.m
.
PM
2.5
-con
cent
ratio
ndu
ring
an e
piso
dein
duce
dby
tem
pera
ture
inve
rsio
n on
22
Oct
ober
2002
. Mid
day,
11:0
0 –
12:0
0 a.
m.
PM
2.5
-con
cent
ratio
ndu
ring
an e
piso
dein
duce
dby
tem
pera
ture
inve
rsio
n on
22
Oct
ober
2002
. Afte
rnoo
nru
shho
ur,7
:00
–8:
00 a
.m.
Con
clus
ions
1/2
�T
he n
atio
nal e
mis
sion
sof
prim
ary
PM
and
the
mai
n pr
ecur
sors
have
been
eval
uate
dus
ing
the
FR
ES
-m
odel
on a
res
olut
ion
of 1
x 1
km
2fo
r va
rious
sour
ceca
tego
ries
and
scen
ario
sin
199
0 -
2020
�T
he c
oste
ffici
enci
esof
var
ious
PM
em
issi
on r
educ
tion
stra
tegi
esha
vebe
enev
alua
ted
�P
rimar
y-, s
ulph
ate-
and
sea
salt-
PM
con
cent
ratio
nsha
vebe
enm
odel
led
regi
onal
ly, a
nd th
e to
talP
M2.
5 co
ncen
trat
ions
in th
e H
elsi
nki M
etro
polit
an A
rea
�re
solu
tion
of 3
0 km
in E
urop
eja
5 k
m in
Fin
land
�pr
edic
ted
mas
scl
osur
est
illin
com
plet
e
�N
ew in
sigh
ton
the
influ
ence
of a
eros
olpr
oces
ses,
ne
w m
easu
rem
entc
ampa
igns
�sm
alle
ffect
on th
e P
M m
ass,
butm
aybe
subs
tant
ialf
or s
ize
dist
ribut
ions
�un
reso
lved
issu
esst
illre
mai
n
55
- 20
20 -
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- 20
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0 - 8
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1,E
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1,E
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1,E
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00E
-08
1,00
E-0
71,
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1,00
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39m
67m
95m
125m
155m
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ions
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�P
redi
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conc
entr
atio
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vebe
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mpa
red
with
the
data
mea
sure
din
var
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cam
paig
ns(e
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S
AP
PH
IRE
, Vär
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and
the
mea
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ta o
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d Y
TV
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rea
Cou
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untr
ies
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ateg
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urce
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mal
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port
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nes
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atur
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orta
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natio
nal p
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a (
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otin
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maa
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21.
81.
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0 %
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PP
öly,
turv
etuo
tant
o0.
78.
39.
04.
7 %
SD
OP
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uut
0.6
6.7
7.3
3.8
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eet,
poltt
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517
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E+
06
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Fe
b1
7 at
6 p
.m.
Fe
b1
7 at
7 p
.m.
Fe
b1
8 at
9 a
.m.
Fe
b1
8 at
10
a.m
.
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b1
8 at
3 p
.m.
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b1
8 at
9 p
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8 at
11
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.
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b1
9 at
8 a
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b1
9 at
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0510152025303540455055
05
1015
2025
3035
4045
5055
pred
icte
d
observed
Som
ere
cent
jour
nala
rtic
les
…P
ohjo
la, M
A, P
irjol
a, L
, Kuk
kone
n, J
, Kul
mal
a, M
. 200
3. M
odel
ling
of th
e in
fluen
ce o
f aer
osol
pro
cess
es fo
r th
e di
sper
sion
of v
ehic
ular
exh
aust
plu
mes
in
str
eet e
nviro
nmen
t. A
tmos
pher
icE
nviro
nmen
t37
(3),
pp.
339
-351
.
Kar
ppin
en, A
., H
ärkö
nen,
J.,
Kuk
kone
n, J
., A
arni
o, P
. and
Kos
kent
alo,
T.,
2004
. Sta
tistic
al m
odel
for
asse
ssin
g th
e po
rtio
n of
fine
par
ticul
ate
mat
ter
tran
spor
ted
regi
onal
ly a
nd lo
ng-r
ange
to u
rban
air.
Sca
nd. J
. Wor
k E
nviro
n.
Hea
lth, 3
0 su
ppl.
2: 4
7-53
.
Sof
iev
M, P
. Silj
amo,
I. V
alka
ma,
M. I
lvon
en a
nd J
. Kuk
kone
n, 2
006.
A
disp
ersi
on m
odel
ling
syst
em S
ILA
M a
nd it
s ev
alua
tion
agai
nst E
TE
X d
ata.
A
tmos
. Env
iron.
40
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