an energy picture of the asian developing countries and research imperatives for energy development

~ ) Pergamon 0960-1481(94)00100--6

Renewable Eneryy, Vol. 6, No. 8, pp. 925-939, 1995 Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd

Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 096C~1481/95 $9.50+0.00

A N E N E R G Y PICTURE OF THE A S I A N D E V E L O P I N G C O U N T R I E S A N D R E S E A R C H IMPERATIVES FOR E N E R G Y

D E V E L O P M E N T

E. T A S D E M i R O C J L U ~ x ~ a n d A. | L E R i

Mechanical Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey

(Received 24 February 1994 ; accepted 23 November 1994)

Abstract-- The Asian developing countries are classified with respect to their socio-economi¢ situation and energy resource endowment. Energy utilization levels for both commercial and biomass-based fuels are indicated in relation to resource availability. Renewable energy technologies and the potential in the region are briefly reviewed, as well as the technological potential and R&D activities for energy development. The paper concludes with a discussion of research imperatives for energy sector planning.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENERGY DATA

Asia is the largest continent, with a total area of about 44 million km 2. Excluding the Middle East, there are 31 countries with an overall populat ion of about 3.2 billion, which is over 60% of the world's population. In accordance with the classification of the World Bank [1], a few countries from this group, namely Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Brunei have high- income economies. Others are found at the varying ranges in the lower-income (GNP per capita < $650), lower-middle-income ($650 < G N P per capita < $2500), and upper-middle-income ($2500 < G N P per capita < 10,000) economy groups.

Energy shortage has become one of the important problems in the Asian developing countries, as their energy requirements and populations are growing rapidly. Most of these countries are not well endowed with energy resources, and depend on external supply to meet their requirements. In order to review the overall energy situation, 18 developing countries, on which the data are more or less available, have been selected from the region.

In this representation, the new republics in Asia and the Middle Eastern countries are not included. Separation of the Turkestani republics from the U.S.S.R. created a new political situation in Asia, and it is difficult to picture the present energy and economic situations of these republics with the available data. As most of the Middle Eastern countries are net oil exporters, this region as a whole is not considered in this analysis.

Table 1 shows some updated basic data, including population, area, urbanisation ratio, G N P per capita,

commercial energy consumption per capita, energy trade dependence and biomass energy consumption for selected countries [1-6]. The countries are ranked in accordance with their G N P per capita level. Among the countries reviewed 13 belong to the low-income, three to the lower-middle-income, and two to the upper-middle-income economy groups.

The degree of energy trade dependence refers to the percentage share of net commercial energy imports in the total commercial energy consumption. The contribution of biomass energy to the total national energy consumption is also shown in the same table.

The energy resource endowments of the same countries are indicated in Table 2 for each of six different energy resources: solid fuels; oil ; oil shales; natural gas ; hydroelectric potential ; and uranium. The figures are based on statistical data compiled from various sources [5, 7-9]. In some countries, there may be additional resources which will gradually be added to the proven reserves.

CHARACTERISATION OF ENERGY RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS

In the developing countries of Asia, commercial energy consumption is relatively low indicating the general economic situation. Commercial energy use is typically concentrated in the urbanised areas. Biomass-based non-commercial energy in the forms of fuelwood and animal and agricultural wastes are the main domestic fuel of rural people. In discussing the energy situation of the Asian developing countries, the contributions of both of these fuels will be taken into account.

925

926

0

©

m ,.2

~ o~ .~ • - ' ~ o o

K~

z ~

~ ~ ' ~

o . ~ = o '°

o

o

E. TA~DEM|ROCJLU and A. |LERi

-~ ~ ~ ~ = ~ . ~

o O

o O

o o ~

Asian developing countries

Table 2. Fossil-fuel reserves and hydroelectric potentials for the selected countries as at 1990

927

Solid fuels Oil Natural gas Gross hydroelectric Uranium Countries a (million tons) (million tons) (trillion m 3) potential (GW) (thousand tons)

Afghanistan 66 1 ld 0.1a 6 - - Bhutan - - - - n.a. - - Vietnam 15 - - - - 53,6 Nepal - - - - - - 80 Bangladesh 242 3.4 0.4 1.3 Lao (PDR) - - - - - - 50 - - India 62,548 1181 0.6 70 45.5 China b 859,400 3100 0.9 380 166 Pakistan 102 53 0.5 20 - - Sri Lanka 64 - - - - 1.2 - - Mongolia ° 12,000 - - 6.2 Indonesia 3000 1400 2.4 30 7.3 Burma 29 6.2 4.3 1.5 - - Philippines 82 14 - - 7.5 0.3 d Thailand 914 1 0. I d 1.4 - - Malaysia 4 400 1.5 6.2 0.1 Korea (DPR) 534 - - - - 6.8 - - Korea (R) 158 - - - - 5.5 3.0

"Data are mainly adjusted from refs. [2, 7]. b [33]. c [9]. d [5].

An analysis of the data in Tables 1 and 2 suggests that some comm on socio-economic indicators can be identified to classify the countries into groups. Con- sidering the economic situation and the degree of urbanisation, these data are evaluated for both commercial and non-commercial energies.

Commercial energy use The pattern of commercial energy use in the region

varies from country to country depending on a number of factors such as economic growth, energy resource endowment , climatic conditions, industrial structure, urbanisat ion ratio, etc. G N P per capita, as a main indicator o f economic growth, is plotted vs commercial energy consumpt ion per capita, based on 1991 data for the selected countries in the region (Fig. 1). The resulting points are within a fairly narrow linear band indicating a strong direct correlation between these parameters. The countries with high GNP, for instance Korea (R), Malaysia, Thailand and The Philippines have high commercial energy consumption.

Fossil-fuel resources vary greatly among the countries in the region. On one hand, the region has some of the world 's largest oil export ing countries, on the other, it has countries with little or no fossil-fuel reserves which are mainly dependent on biomass- based fuels or imported oil. The energy situation of these countries can be ranked with respect to their

degree of energy dependence. In this respect, they can be broadly classified into three groups as shown in Table 3 [1, 4-5]: (i) heavily energy-dependent countries, i.e. those which have no or very small economically exploitable reserves of fossil fuels, so their energy requirements can only be met by imports ; (ii) energy-dependent countries, i.e. those which have maintained a more-or-less stable gap between production and consumpt ion of energy over the last few decades, and al though producing some fossil fuels, they are not net energy exporters ; and (iii) non- energy-dependent countries, i.e. those which are endowed with abundant fossil-fuel reserves and are, at present, earning state revenue from their energy exports.

(i) Heavily-energy-dependent countries. Vietnam (49%), Bangladesh (59%), Afghanis tan (60%), Korea (R) (71%), Bhutan (80%), Lao (P.D.R.) (85%), Nepal (91%). The Philippines (93%), Thailand (97%), and Sri Lanka (100%) are in the group of heavily-energy- dependent countries. Seven of these countries belong to the low-income economy group, whereas The Phi- lippines and Thailand are in the range of lower-middle-income economies. Korea (R), with a C;N P of over $4400 per capita is the only country in the upper- middle-income group. Bangladesh, Korea (R), The Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam have some proven fossil-fuel reserves. The energy resource endowment of the others is not very promising. Very

928

"g

r ~

o

"~-i0 3

O . Z

E. TASDEMiROGLU and A. ILERI

104 ' ' ' ~ 1 ' ' ' ~ ' ' ~ I I i I I I

Korea, R

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia Pakistan

$ri ~.anka • • China

India

Lao, PDFto • Bangladesh Bhutan• •Nepal • •V iet Nam

Afghanistan

1 0 2 I i I I , t I I J t t I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I

IO- [ 0 ° I0 I Commercial energy consumption per capita (GJ)

Fig. 1. GNP per capita vs commercial energy consumption per capita for the selected countries based on 1991 data.

io z

limited explora t ion for oil and gas has been performed in these countries. Addi t iona l explora t ion for fossil fuels is needed to prove the possible reserves.

(ii) Energy-dependent countries. India (5%), Korea

(P.D.R.) (5%), Pakis tan (34%), and Mongol i a (36%) are included in this group. These countr ies need to expand explora t ion p rogrammes for bo th indigenous fossil fuels and renewable energy. India is the least

Table 3. Commercial energy trade dependence level of the selected countries

Low-income b Lower-middle-income b Upper-middle-income b Commercial energy ~ GNP per capita GNP per capita GNP per capita dependence levels ($180-600) ($600-2400) ($2400-6000)

Non-dependent China (0%), Burma (0%) Malaysia (0%) Indonesia (0%)

Dependent India (5%), Mongolia (36%) Pakistan (34%)

Heavily dependent Vietnam (49%), The Philippines (93%), Bangladesh (59%), Thailand (93%) Afghanistan (60%), Bhutan (80%), Lao (PDR) (85%), Sri Lanka (100%)

Korea (PDR) (5%)

Korea (R) (71%)

a Percentage of commercial energy trade dependence is given within parentheses for each country. Data are collected from refs [4, 5],

b Based on 1991 data from World Bank, "World Development Repor 1993" [1].

Asian developing countries 929

energy dependent, and has considerable coal and oil reserves. The large populations in India and Pakistan absorb the whole domestic production of these low- income countries. Data about Mongolia are very scarce, but favourable mention can be made as this country has the lowest population density among the other countries in the region, and its per capita GNP is relatively higher.

(iii) Non-energy-dependent countries. China, Burma, Indonesia, and Malaysia are within the group of non- energy-dependent countries. They are net oil exporters and are also well endowed with other energy resources. Except for Malaysia, these countries belong to the low-income economy group. China and Indone- sia have large populations. As they are becoming industrialised, the exportable surplus could be used for domestics needs in coming decades.

Non-commercial energy use The vast majority of the population lives in the

rural areas of Asian developing countries and depends on biomass-based fuels. Biomass-based fuels are the dominant domestic fuel for the poor people of the region. More than 60% of the total energy consumption is met by the biomass-based fuels in many countries. The majority of the countries in the region are lacking in fuelwood supplies. The fuelwood scarcity also prevails in some urban centres. The overall scarcity of energy resources is aggravated by the ste- ady depletion of both fossil fuels and non-commercial energy resources, their increasing cost, and the uncertainty of their availability. The continuing widespread use of non-commercial energy sources has become a major environmental concern because of factors including deforestation, soil erosion, and loss of soil fertility in many countries.

The level of non-commercial energy utilisation varies according to the geographical location because of factors including resource availability, meteorological conditions and the ru ra l~rban population split and the economic structure of the country. In order to assess the adequacy of biomass-based fuels, the countries are classified with respect to the level of non- commercial energy consumption. Table 4 classifies the countries under review into four groups [1, 10] which are countries where biomass-based fuels constitute about 75-100% of the total national energy consumption in the first group, 50-75% in the second group, 25 50% in the third group, and 0-25% in the fourth group.

Forest area, annual deforestation, annual deforestation/total forest area, and annual total deforestation per head are also shown in the same table. Among the 18 countries reviewed, over 75% of the

total energy consumption of five countries, Bang- ladesh, Burma, Bhutan, Lao (P.D.R.), and Nepal, are supplied by non-commercial fuels. A common charac- teristic of these countries is that the majority of the population is rural and depends on local biomass- based fuels, mainly fuelwood. There is an acute fuelwood scarcity in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Lao (P.D.R.) The other countries in this group have sufficient fuelwood supplies, but some have a very high rate of deforestation, namely Burma, Lao (P.D.R.), and Nepal. In Lao (P.D.R.) the annual total deforestation/total forest area ratio and annual total deforestation per head are 0.096 and 302 m 2, respec- tively.

Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Viet- nam from the group of countries relying on 50-75% of non-commercial energy resources in their total energy balance. Their urban ratios vary between 20 and 30% and deforestation rates are relatively very high. Especially in Indonesia, it reaches 1000 x 103 ha per yr, as this country has a considerable amount of forest land. The others are facing acute fuelwood problems in view of their limited supplies.

In the third group, 25-50% of the total energy requirements are supplied by non-commercial fuels. Urbanisation ratios in this group vary from a low of 23% in Thailand to a high of 71% in Korea (R) Annual deforestation rates are very high in Thailand (240 x 103 ha) and Philippines (140 × l0 s ha).

In China, Malaysia, Mongolia, and Korea (P.D.R.), less than 25% of the total energy needs are supplied by biomass-based fuels. Korea (P.D.R.) has the highest urbanisation ratio (85%) and commercial energy share (95%) among the countries reviewed. Over 60% of Malaysia's land is covered by forests, thus the country has a very high annual deforestation rate of 270 x 103 ha. This figure corresponds to 148 m 2 of annual total deforestation per head. Statistical data show that there is no deforestation in China.

This broad review shows that in countries with high rural populations, biomass use is also very high. Non- commercial energy use as a percentage of total energy use is plotted vs rural population as a percentage of total population. The resulting points in Fig. 2 are almost linearly distributed. The first group of countries in Table 4 (the countries with non-commercial energy consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption between 75 and 100%) are concentrated in the upper right-hand section of Fig. 2.

R E N E W A B L E ENERGY R E S O U R C E S

Every country in the region has some renewable energy resources at varying potentials. These

930 E. T A ~ D E M | R O G L U and A. | L E R i

8

e~ o

P

P

t - O

e ~

8

E

o

Z ,4

~ o

5 o

o

- g

~ 0 ~ 0

- ~ - ~ ~ g ~ . o ~ ~ . - - ~

g ~ g g g ~ g g g g g g g g g g a ~

0

0~

E o

o

o

r~

0 0 '3

I00

90

'6 .~8o

~,7o - o

~ 6 0 ~ 0, .

0 ,,, 50 (3

u)

:3 4 0

~ 3o

~ 2 0 E E

0 Z

0 0

I i

Korea, R


I i I I I I I

Nepal Kampuchea, D .

Lao,PDR• • • e Bhutan

Burma

Bangladesh

Philippines

Indonesia

Sri eL_anka

Viet Nam

Pakistan

• India Malaysia

Thailand

Korea ,DPR I I I

Rural population

Ch i~ a

Mo;golia

I I I I I I

50

as a percentage of total population I00

Fig. 2. Non-commercial energy use as a percentage of total use vs rural population as a percentage of total population for the selected countries based on 1991 data.

931

resources are particularly well suited to meeting the widespread need for small and decentralised sources of energy in rural areas. In some cases, renewables may prove to be economical when compared with the conventional alternatives, The potential of renewable energy resources has been evaluated for many cases in the region. Table 5 shows the potential for renewable resources for some selected countries in the region [11-16]. Solar energy, wind energy, biogas, and hydro- electricity are the most promising renewable energy resources.

Because of their geographical location and meteorological conditions, many Asian developing countries come inside the sunny belt. The level of solar radiation input in these regions are accepted as being potent enough to develop any direct solar energy application. Thus, many countries in the region have initiated direct solar energy technology development programmes [17 19].

Depending on the topographical conditions, wind characteristics change sharply over the region. Wind speed is expected to be at least 4 m s-t for many applications and economic assumptions. The evalu-

ation of available wind speed in several developing countries has shown prospective sites where wind energy may be harnessed.

Less attention has been given to another renewable energy resource, biomass, which can be converted by several processes into fuel. Among biofuel conversion technologies, biogas technology has attracted most attention in many developing countries in the region. It is a simple, cheap, clean and useful source of energy. Every country listed in Table 5 has a biogas programme to some extent.

Hydroelectric power technology is well developed and in widespread use in all countries is the region (Table 2). Many countries have already obtained a significant portion of their electricity generation from hydropower. However, they still need to increase hydropower development programmes, since much of this renewable potential is not being exploited.

Some countries in the region are also amply endowed with geothermal resources. China, Indone- sia, Malaysia and the Philippines are among the countries which harness geothermal potential. Tidal power, and ocean thermal power could also be envisaged as

932 E. TASDEM|ROt3LU and A. |LER[

Table 5. Renewable energy potential of the selected countries

Countries

Solar radiation a (cal/cm 2 day) Yearly b average

wind velocity Biogas c'a production June December (m/s) potential (million m 3)

Installed a geothermal capacity (MW)

Bangladesh 400-450 300-350 3.6-5.6 22.2 China 450-600 150-250 3.6-8.0 1000 ° India 400-650 350-500 3.6 5.6 66.5 Indonesia 350-450 35ff400 3.6-8.0 15.8 Korea (R) 450-500 100-150 4.6-5.6 0.3 Malaysia 400-450 350-400 3.6-5.6 2 Nepal 500-550 300-350 3.6-5.6 0.3 Pakistan 500 550 300-350 3.6-5.6 15 Philippines 500-550 300-350 3.6-5.6 10.1 Sri Lanka 450-550 300-350 3.6 5.6 0.01 e Thailand 400-500 350-400 3.64.6 17

14

32

894

Adjusted from the world map from ref. [11]. bAdjusted from the world map from ref. [12]. c Adjusted from refs [13, 14]. d Adjusted from ref. [15]. e[161.

future renewable energy resources along the coasts of these countries.

RENEWABLE ENERGY P R O G R A M M E S

After the steep rises is the prices of non-renewable energy resources during the 1970s, most of the nations in the region have expanded their interests and activities in the area of renewable energy resources. Over the past decade, national and international organisations have provided in excess of $300 million in assistance for renewable energy resource development and technology application projects [20]. The projects have ranged in focus from adaptive technology development, resource selection and production to technology demonstration and commercialisation. Several efforts have been made to document the problems associated with the experience and to provide guid- ance for future activities [21].

Rural areas in Asian countries are at a severe dis- advantage in terms of many of the critical inputs for economic development. Therefore, considerable attention has been given to renewable energy technologies for rural applications in an attempt to address the needs of rural areas. Table 6 summarises renewable technologies, their potential rural applications and the Asian countries active in these areas. The technologies reviewed are solar, wind, biomass, hydro, geothermal, and ocean energy applications.

Solar energy Solar water heating, solar drying, solar cooking and

greenhouse heating are some of the preferred areas of

research in solar thermal applications. Commercial sales of solar hot water systems have been achieved in the region. These systems are manufactured from locally available materials and are in use for domestic purposes and in hotels [22]. Some countries are very active in solar drying programmes. Small-scale solar cabinet dryers using direct exposure and natural-con- vection principles for preheated air have been under development in India, primarily for drying paddy rice [23]. Extensive experimental solar kiln design development and testing efforts have been also carried out in India and The Philippines [24]. Solar cooking devices are commercially available in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and China [25].

There are also areas in which effective research and development have been conducted with a relatively small budget, for example solar thermal electricity and photovoltaices. India, Malaysia, Pakistan. Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Mongolia have programmes for electricity generation from solar energy [22, 26]. With assistance manily from Japan, Indonesia has established a number of photovoltaic village elec- trification demonstration projects. Australia has also assisted with PV cold chain systems for some remote areas in Malaysia. In The Philippines, PV research has been concentrating on water pumping and remote power supply [22]. In Mongolia, there are about 3000 PV sets in operation [26]. Korea (R) is also very active in PV research. About 1500 sets are in use for lighting and telephone griding [27] PV systems installed in Thailand belong to the National Organizations. Applications include tower and buoy warning lights, hybrid PV-wind, hybrid PV-microhydro, rural water


Table 6. Renewable energy technologies and the active countries in the region

933

Technologies Applications Active countries a

Solar Hot water collectors B, C, I, IN, M, MO, N, PH, SR, T Solar drying IN, PH Other solar thermal C, 1, IN, M, MO, PH, T Photovoltaics C, I, IN, M, MO, PH, T

Biomass Biogas B, C, I, IN, K, M, N, PH, SR, T Biomass gasification I, M, P, T Improved stoves I, IN Forestry projects B, I, N, P

Wind Irrigation, pumping C, I, IN, M, P, T Power generation C, I, IN, M, P, T

Mini, micro-Hydro Power generation I, N, P, T Mechanical energy I, N, P, T

Geothermal Power generation C, I, N, M Heating C, IN, M, P, H, T

Ocean Energy Wave energy PH OTEC C, IR, P, N, T Tidal power C, IN

B : Bangladesh ; C : China ; I : India ; IN : Indonesia ; K : Korea (R) ; M : Malaysia ; MO : Mongolia ; N : Nepal ; P : Pakistan ; PH : Philippines ; SR : Sri Lanka ; T : Thailand.

pumping and centralised battery charging for remote villages [28].

Wind eneryy In Indonesia, India, The Philippines, Thailand and

China there are research and development studies on mechanical and electrical energy production systems using wind potential. Despite their apparent attrac- tion, wind pumps and windmills are not widely used. The main reason for this lack of awareness of wind energy potential is the difficulties of manufacture, maintenance and repair, as well as the high costs involved. However, it may be feasible to use this energy source for irrigation pumping and drinking water supply in developing countries [17-19].

There are a number of candidate windmill designs for application in developing countries, including Savonius, sailwing, multivane, medium-speed, high- speed, propeller-type, and advanced vertical axis machines. Relatively successful efforts to implement Savonius windmills have been undertaken at the Inter- national Rice Research Institute in The Philippines [29]. These are used for low-lift irrigation and for power generation. In the late 1970s, 68 multivane windmills were installed in various parts of India [29]. Extensive historical and current use of sail windmills, particularly for water pumping and salt production has been reported in China and Thailand [30-31]. In Indonesia, a few demonstrat ion units have been

installed for village heating water, lifting on salt farms and for shrimp pond aeration [32]. In Mongolia , more than 8400 mini wind turbine generators of 100 W capacity have been put into operation, which is about 80% of the total number in China [33].

Biomass Biogas production, gasifier technologies, improved

stoves and forestry projects are among the biomass technologies applied in the region. The viability of small-scale family-type digesters designed for cooking and lighting purposes has been demonstrated in China and India; a large number of biogas digesters are in use in these countries. Biogas and diesel financial returns were compared for a commercial application based on a recent U S A I D (United States Agency for International Development) evaluation in Nepal [34]. The Gasifier Programme in The Philippines, funded by USAID, worked in much closer collaboration with private sector parties to develop and transfer gasifier technologies to local users [35]. Considerable efforts into biomass gasification are also being pursued in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in collaboration with F A O [21]. Significant forestry projects were conducted in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal [20]. F A O has assisted in a number of afforestation programmes in the region.

Among the different types of cookstoves, high-mass designs provide controlled heat for cooking, for heat-

934 E. TA~DEMiROCJLU and A. |LER|

ing small quantities of water, and if appropriate, for helping to keep living spaces warm. Examples of the better known high-mass cookstove designs are the Hyderabad Engineering Research Laboratories (HERL), chula from India [36], the Magan choola also developed in India [37], and the Singer stove used in Indonesia [38].

Although there has been some dissemination of improved cookstove designs in parts of Asia, universal acceptance of improved cookstove technology has not occurred as a result of these early implementation efforts. Utilization rates vary widely from country to country from very high (8(~90% of stoves in use) to not so high (50% or less) [31].

Micro-mini hydro energy Hydro is a mature technology with significant num-

bers of applications worldwide. It is important to dis- tinguish between two types of applications; microhydro and mini-hydro. Micro-hydro generally refers to sites of less than 50 kW. One micro-hydro application is the water mill delivery of shaft power for grain milling, rice hulling, oil seed pressing, cane cru- shing and other similar uses. These uses are often very small and have low power output and productivity. Micro-hydro has experienced an important success in Nepal. The use of local designs, materials and fab- rication has held down costs to an affordable local level about 1/5 to 1/10 the capital cost of imported equipment in Nepal [39].

In Thailand, the National Energy Administration (NEA) had an ambitious programme to promote micro- and mini-systems based on improved locally manufactured units. This programme has resulted in 35 planned units with relatively low capital cost and demonstrated reliability [21]. Entrepreneurs in Pak- istan and India have also begun manufacturing turbines, generators, and end-use equipment, and can provide complete packaged systems to rural cus- tomers [34].

Geothermal energy Located close to a volcanic chain, five Asian coun-

tries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Thailand and China are active in developing geothermal energy resources. A committee of Asian power utilities/authomities cooperates in the development [22].

Indonesia has a bilateral programme with New Zea- land. A 32 MW unit has been in operation. Recently, two more units of 55 MW have been added [40]. In Malaysia, there are several hot springs. Plans are now underway to develop an experimental scheme at Sabah. Next to the United States The Philippines is the

largest producer of geothermal energy in the world. In total, the installed geothermal potential in the country is 894 MW, and is expected to reach 1777 MW by the year 2000. Thailand's known geothermal resources are in the low-to-medium enthalpy range, and are thus economically better suited to direct uses such as crop drying. However, some fields may be suitable for electricity production. China's installed geothermal capacity is about 14 MW. The country expects to speed up the geothermal energy harnessing projects [401.

Ocean energy In the waters between Southeast Asia and Australia,

there are a considerable number of tidal energy and ocean thermal energy potentials. In Indonesia, an OTEC plant has been commissioned for Bali. Tidal energy potential has been computed along the coasts of Indonesia [41]. The Philippines seems to have considerable OTEC potential. Some R&D has also been conducted on wave energy. In Thailand, assessment of thermal gradients in the Andaman Sea along the western coastline of the country has been proposed. China has an extensive research program to estimate tidal and OTEC potentials and to design proper systems for harnessing ocean energy.

BARRIERS TO RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

Energy development in a particular country requires high capital investment and advanced technology. The heavy energy technologies in the world are in the hands of large transnational companies based in the industrialised countries. The entrants into the international energy market from developing countries have to face several barriers associated with managerial and financial situations and with the pro- vision of technical services, engineering and equipment.

The main difficulties faced by the developing countries in increasing their energy technologies are not only due to the structure of the existing international market, but also due to their own underdevelopment. In addition to the financial barriers, developing countries lack skilled manpower, engineering skills, and research and development, and the ability to manufacture capital goods.

In energy investment projects, developing countries usually benefit by receiving a product only e.g. a refinery, power station or oil station, but not the technology itself. In many cases, the developing country is still dependent on services required for operation and maintenance of the system.

The skilled workforce should be educated to under-


stand the transferred technology and to operate it. In addition to the foreign technology, local technology should also be developed to provide equipment and services. Research and development efforts are aimed at supplementing technology transfer and developing the local capacity to substitute domestic needs for imported technology. Research and development activities require skilled manpower as well as the allocation of adequate budgets.

The constraints faced by developing countries are considerable and aggravate their dependence on foreign technology suppliers, Table 7 highlights this situation for regions in the world in general and for some selected Asian developing counties in particular [1,42, 43]. There are large differences in the total research and development expenditures and in the number of scientists and engineers between the developed and developing nations. Total research and development expenditure as a percentage of GNP is about 3.06 in North America, whereas it drops to 0.78 in the Asian developing countries and to 0.25 overall in Africa. The number of scientists and engineers per million inhabitants changes from a high of 2274 in North America to a low of 117 in Africa and 169 in the Asian developing countries.

Table 7 also presents the data for overall research and development expenditure. Very scarce information is available concerning the magnitude of research and development expenditures for energy programmes. However, some data have been collected for three developing countries (India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand) and one industrialised country (Japan) from the region. For comparison purposes research and development expenditure is shown for thirteen different sectors in Table 8 [42, 43]. The research and development expenditure allocated to energy activities shows big variation among these countries, owing to their particular economic situations. Japan, with a 31.7% share in its overall research and development balance, is the highest investor in energy in the world. India, with 7.6% share, has the relatively highest share in the region compared to Sri Lanka and Thailand.

RESEARCH IMPERATIVES IN ENERGY ISSUES

The broad review above gives a general idea about the energy and economic situations of the developing countries in the region. In these countries, energy related research should be planned and conducted as the main factor leading to the solution of energy

Table 7. Research and development indicators for the selected regions and countries

Region

Total research and development expenditures

as percentage of total GNP

Number of scientists and engineers

per million inhabitants

Africa 0.25 I 17 North America 3.06 2274 South America 0.28 413 Europe 2.21 2206 Oceania 1.38 1610 Developed countries 2.92 3606 Developing countries 0.67 264

Asia All Asia 2.05 401 Japan and Israel 2.77 5483 Arab States 1.38 631 Other countries 0.78 169 Bangladesh 0.10 33 China 0.32 115 India 1.15 159 Indonesia 0.18 235 Korea(R) 2.77 2204 Malaysia 0.15 143 Nepal 0.11 21 Pakistan 0.31 98 Philippines 0.03 53 Sri Lanka 0.18 204 Thailand 0.19 157 Viet Nam 0.30 394

Source: 1990 data adjusted from ref. [42], and "World Development Report 1991" [1].

936 E. TA~DEMiROCsLU and A. iLERI

Table 8. Research and development expenditures

Sectors

India Japan Sri Lanka Thailand (1988 cents (1988 dollars (1984 cents (1987 cents per capita) per capita) per capita) per capita)

Energy 29 200 < 1 7 Earth, seas and atmosphere 11 13 n.a. < 1 Civil space 53 73 n.a. n.a. Development of agriculture 63 119 41 92 Industrial development 48 682 15 < 1 Transport and communication 16 15 < 1 < 1 Education services 4 n.a. 5 n.a. Health services 13 30 1 8 Socio-economic services 5 9 4 90 Environment 18 16 < 1 n.a. Advancement of knowledge 35 20 3 11 Other aims 2 14 < 1 < 1 Defence 88 56 < 1 9

Source: Adjusted from ref [43] and "World Development Report 1990" [l].

problems. The results of the research should be appli- cable on a nationwide scale and constitute a part of the country 's development plan. In many of the Asian developing countries there are still some remaining basic research areas, mostly on the demand side, which need to be covered. Research imperatives in energy planning and new and renewable energy sources are reviewed as follows.

Research imperatives in energy plannin9 National energy planning requires careful analysis

of energy supply and demand patterns, and the key energy policy issues involved in the optimal management of these patterns. The supply and demand patterns of a country should be determined by means of a careful analysis of several years of statistical data, so as to provide relevant information on the fraction of imported energy to total energy used, primary and secondary energy sources, types of fuels, end-use patterns, sectoral shares of consumption, prices and availability, and the resources and technological capacity of each country. Such information in the developing countries is often available in different forms. In case of uncertainty or lack of information, every effort should be made to update the data.

Among the topics set out above a countries indigenous energy resources are the main consideration in planning an energy development strategy. Each of the developing countries reviewed posses at least some kind of energy resource, either of a renewable or non- renewable nature. Research should be directed towards their indentification, the determination of their potential and the making of plans for their opti- mum use so as to reduce dependence on imported energy or so as to increase export earnings.

One of the problems in setting up a national energy plan in a developing country is the lack of reliable estimates of fossil-fuel reserves, especially oil and gas. Until the present reserves have been fully identified, it will be difficult to develop a long-term energy plan.

Other points related to the preparation of an energy plan are involved with the forecasting of various future uncertainties, namely advancements in energy technology, the lifetime and productivity of energy generating plants, fuel price increments and the main factors affecting fuel price changes, socio-economic developments affecting both the demand and supply sides of the country 's energy balance and the possible discovery of new reserves.

Hence, research efforts should be oriented towards the development of a flexible plan. The energy plan should be continually revised and updated in parallel with new developments in order to prevent future failures.

Research imperatives concerned with new and renewable energy sources

The Asian developing countries under review, because of their geographical and climatological conditions, are quite well endowed with certain new and renewable energy resources. These include solar, biomass, wind, hydro, oil-shale, and geothermal energy resource. Thus, a programme of action for the development and utilisation of these energy resources should be formulated in accordance with national plans and priorities. This programme may well include six major areas : (i) integration of new and renewable energy resources into the national energy plan; (ii) collection of relevant information ; (iii) research and development and demonstrat ion programmes; (iv)


technology transfer ; (v) education and training of per- sonnel ; and (vi) allocation of necessary funds. In this way, the coverage of all issues related to energy development and utilisation can be ensured. In some developing countries such a course of action has been taken. However, basic research areas remain which still need to be fostered, including the following :

• monitoring programmes for solar radiation inten- sity and duration, wind speed and relevant meteorological data at selected stations throughout the country ;

• convenient presentation of solar radiation data and wind speed data based on long-term measurements, and identification of the most appropriates regions for solar and wind power applications ;

• data accumulation on stream flow over a period of several years, and on the size of catchment areas, and to determine the potential of possible hydro- dam sites ;

• assessment and evaluation of geothermal, oil-shale, and tar-sand reserves, if they exist, and preparation of regional maps showing the amount of these reserves, as well as relevant topographical conditions ; and

• examination of the suitability of each possible renewable energy application, the availability of industrial capacity, and technical and economic feasibility.

In most of the Asian developing countries, fuelwood, together with other traditional fuels, represents a substantial proportion of total energy utilisation. Research issues on this subject, therefore, require particular attention. Research gaps relating to the fuelwood situation mostly stem from a lack of information, which limits the possibility of effective action and managerial effort. In an attempt to draw a complete picture of the fuelwood situation, the following information should be collected for each specific location in the country :

• the areas covered by natural woody vegetation (shrubs, closed forest areas, natural forest for- mations) as well as the distribution of land between industrial and non-industrial plantations;

• types and amounts of produce obtained from all plantations ;

• types and amounts of agricultural and industrial residues available and those already used for energy purposes as substitutes for, or in addition to, wood fuels, as well as similar data on animal wastes ;

• legal, physical, and economic factors relevant to problems of access to and availability of fuelwood sources for the local population ; and

• deforestation rates and prospective sites for refor- estation and afforestation programmes.

In addition to the collection of information, various supply parameters should be investigated, especially in zones of acute scarcity. These relate in particular to economic questions (transformation of fuelwood to important economic commodities, production of charcoal and other biofuels), social factors (migration from the countryside to urban areas, lifestyle of the population) and industrial aspects (impact of mod- ernisation of agriculture, overutilisation of forest resources for grazing, logging or for other rural industries).

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S FOR RESEARCH

PLANNING

It is always advisable to make recommendations for research planning based on the global energy situation of the country. In this way, a concordance can be maintained between ongoing research efforts and national needs. From the energy trade point of view, the countries have been broadly classified in three groups. In accordance with the national needs of the countries belonging to each of these groups, the following recommendations can be made.

(i) Heavily energy-dependent countries Although some countries are classified in this

group, this does not imply that the energy situation of these countries is hopeless. Several topics may be pointed out on which research efforts should be inten- sified in order to help correct this situation :

• prospective alternative energy sources and their possible contribution to the total energy balance should be meticulously studied ;

• management of the energy demand side should be aimed at reducing the need for imported oil, this may be achieved by applying new governmental regulations, and energy pricing policies ;

• Development of other export earning activities to pay for imported oil is often neglected. These exports may include agricultural and forestry prod- ucts, minerals, tourism and manufactured goods.

(ii) Energy-dependent countries In the energy context, the principal aim of these

countries is to steadily close the energy deficit which is caused mainly by population growth and industrial development. Research issues should be planned within a framework of the development of indigenous energy sources, arrangement of energy policies to

938

foster the efficient use of energy and the establish- ment of new industr ies to offset energy imports . Fail- ure to follow a ra t ional energy policy will result in rapidly increasing oil impor t bills.

(iii) Non-energy-dependent countries Countr ies with a surplus of energy and capital

should examine the possibilities of income yielding and product ive investments in their own territories. Research efforts should be oriented towards finding opt ions for the inves tment of state revenues. Appro- priate guidelines may be stated as follows :

• a substant ia l por t ion of current revenue should be invested in fur ther seismic surveys and pet ro leum explora t ion so as to ma in ta in the level of oil product ion, it is possible tha t an oil expor t ing state can become a net energy impor te r in the future as a result of neglecting the search for new deposits while cont inuing to deplete the k n o w n reserves ;

• as the region is very fruitful for renewable energy applications, especially solar, biogas and wind, it will be wise to al locate par t of the funds for the deve lopment of al ternat ive energy appl icat ions ;

• inves tment in other product ive sectors of the economy such as agriculture, forestry, fishery and indus- try, may yield impor t an t gains, if well p lanned, for instance, processing of locally produced raw materials with the aim of reducing the level of impor ted commodit ies . The developing countr ies with an energy surplus may also be well placed to develop energy-intensive industries.

In addi t ion to the above recommenda t ions made for each group of countries, several research issues may have priorit ies depending on the count ry ' s own situation. Such issues can be well de termined by the energy experts in a par t icular country.

One impor t an t research issue, which should be seri- ously held by any count ry in the world, is the devel- opmen t of energy conservat ion p rogrammes for the main energy consuming sectors. These programmes , if bet ter p lanned p lanned and applied, may give highly successful results in a shor t - term, especially in t rans- port , industrial and household sectors. Each of these sectors has at least a 10% energy saving potential .

REFERENCES

1. World Bank Worm Development Report (1993); Worm Development Report (1992); Worm Development Report (1990). World Bank, New York.

2. Survey of World Energy Resources 1989. World Energy Conf., London (1989).

3. Hiirriyet, 1985 Annuary. H~rriyet Newspaper, Istanbul (1985).

E. TA~DEMiRO(~LU and A. ILERi

4. United Nations, Yearbook of Energy Statistics 1983- 1987. United Nations, New York (1984-1988).

5. United Nations, Energy Supplies for Developing Coun- tries United Nations, New York (1980).

6. D. O. Hall, Biomass Energy 19, 711-737 (1991). 7. World Energy Conference Turkish Committee Worm

Energy Resources. 5th Turkish Energy Congress, Turkey (1990).

8. Ministry of Energy, Energy in China. Peoples Republic of China, Beijing (1989).

9. B. Chadraa and B. Jamtsai, Research and development activity on renewable energy sources in Mongolia. Asean-91, Bangkok (1991).

10. FAO, Forest Resources of Tropical Asia. United Nations, Rome (19813.

11. United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia, Programme for new and renewable sources of energy with special reference to rural applications. Natu- ral Resources Bulletin, Vol. 1, No. 2, Bangkok (1984).

12. German Solar Energy Industries Association, Wind Energy Power Generation. Essen (1984).

13. D. M. Tam and N. C. Tnanh, Biogas technology in asia : the perspectives. Renewable Energy Review J. 15, 1-29 (1983).

14. E. Ta~demiro~lu, Energy situation and the contribution of renewable energies in OIC countries. Energy Policy 17, 577 590 (1989).

15. M. A. Aziz, Biomass energy in Asia. Proc. Int. Symp. on Development and Management of Energy Sources, pp. 83-127 (1989).

16. J. D. Garnish, Electricity generation from geothermal energy resources. Proc. Course on Electricity Generation through Renewable Energies, Almeria (1986).

17. E. Ta~demiro~lu, Domestic energy supply and demand in Southwest Asia and Northern Africa--l. socio-economic outlook and energy utilization. Energy Cony. Man- agement 29, 1 18 (1989).

18. E. Ta~demiro~lu, Domestic energy supply and demand in Southwest Asia and Northern Africa~II. energy supply and supply prospects. Energy Cony. Management 29, 19-39 (1989).

19. E. Ta~demiro~lu, Domestic energy supply and demand in Southwest Asia and Northern Africa--III. alternative energies and research priorities. Energy Conv. Man- agement 29, 41 57 (1989).

20. D. B. Waddle, R. D. Perlack and H. M. Jones, Renew- able energy projects. Natural Resources Forum, pp. 303- 309 (1989).

21. J. H. Ashworth, Renewable Energy Systems Installed in Asia. Associates for Rural Development, Burlington, VT 0985).

22. K. Kirtikara, Overviewofnon-conventionalenergytech- nologies in Asia. Asian J. Sci. Technol. Develop. 9, 1-18 (1992).

23. R. Exell, and S. Kornsakog, Solar rice dryer, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok (1978).

24. R. P. Morgan, and L. J. Icerman. Renewable Resource Utilization for Development. Pergamon Press, New York (1981).

25. Solar Energy Centre, Solar Cooking. New Delhi (19853. 26. L. Tiesheng, Practice and consideration on development

and utilization of renewable energy in Inner Mongolia. Int. Con[~ on New and Renewable Energy, pp. 15 19 (1990).

27. H. S. Chung, P. C. Auh and H. S. Jeon. Present Status of Renewable Energy Applications in Korea. WEC Pacific


Asia Regional Forum, Document DB2 (1991). 36. 28. National Energy Authority, Thailand Energy Situation

1989. Bangkok (1991). 29. A. Clarke, Wind energy : progress and potential. Energy 37.

Poliey 19, 7 16 (1991). 30. C. K. Nathan, Harrnessing of renewable energy sources 38.

in asian countries. Renewable Energy Review J. 4, 7-15 (1982).

31. L. Icerman and R. P. Morgan, Renewable energy technologies for international development. Energy--The 39. International Journal 7, 1545-554 (1984).

32. D. V. Giap, Traditional fuels in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and The Philippines: a review. Int. Energy 40. Policy Seminar on Energy Development in S. E. Asia, Pattaya, Thailand (1989).

33. Y. Ohno and Y. Yanaka, Energy situations and environ- 41. mental problems in China. Energy in Japan 109, 44-54 (1991).

34. R. D. Perlack, H. G. Jones and D. B. Waddle, A survey 42. of renewable energy technologies for rural applications. Energy-- The International Journal 15, 1119-1127 (1990).

35. D. B. Waddle, Experience with rural gasifier appli- 43. cations. ASAE Paper No : 85-5550, American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St Joseph, MI (1990).

939

Volunteers in Technical Assistance, Wood conserving cookstoves. Energy Fact Sheet No. 3, Mt. Rainier, MD (1980). T. Kalluppatti, Magan Choola, Gandhiniketan Ashram, Madurai District, India (1985). M. Singer, Report to the government of Indonesia on improvement of fuelwood cooking stoves and economy in fuelwood consumption. FAO Report, No. 1315, Rome (1961). W. Ramsay and M. Zink, An Assessment of evaluations of AID renewable energy projects, Draft, VITA, Arling- ton, VA (1986). ASEAN Power Utilities/Authorities, Eighth meeting on geothermal power development, Chieng Mai, Thailand (1989). D. K. Mihandja, Tidal energy dissipation in Southeast Asian waters. Third Asian Science and Technology Week, Bangkok (1992). Unesco, Estimation of World Resources Devoted to Research and Experimental Development 1980 and 1985. United Nations, Paris ( 1991). Unesco, Statistics on Science and Technology. United Nations, Paris (1991).

an energy picture of the asian developing countries and research imperatives for energy development

Documents