an analysis of simulated and observed storm ... · an analysis of simulated and observed storm...
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An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm An analysis of simulated and observed storm
characteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristicscharacteristics
-------- Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?Can we expect a change in the future?
R.E. Benestad, CES, June 01 2010
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Number of cyclones:
RCM
analysisCCI
(Benestad & Chen, 2006) �
No change in storm frequency?No change in storm frequency?
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RCM:
N corresponds
|v| too high
...or simulated wind speeds?...or simulated wind speeds?
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•CCI
•triangulation
Method: storm characteristicsMethod: storm characteristics
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RCM: storms too small
too strong.
Gradient wind
Obs=ERAINT (reanalysis) �
Storm statisticsStorm statistics
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Domain:
12°W-38°E/48-66°N
(Same as RCM)
Historical reanalysis
ERAINT
Little trend!
Historical analysis: NHistorical analysis: N
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CCI on small domain:
restricted
RCM domainRCM domain
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Domain:
80°W-40°E/20-
75°N
Different story!
Geographical
distribution?
Storm statistics: Whole North AtlanticStorm statistics: Whole North Atlantic
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Homogeneous?
Historical analysis: |v|Historical analysis: |v|
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Southern Norway
SLP 'triangulation'
historical
ERAINT
RCM
Geostrophic windGeostrophic wind
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Meteorologisk institutt met.no
A change in storminess?
• Storms: baroclinic instability, available energy• Ambient conditions:
– dT/dy, moisture, flow.
• Energy flow:
– evaporation, motion, condensation, radiation, advection.
• Aspects:
– Clouds, winds, pressure & precipitation.
• Data difficult.
• High uncertainty!