wireless in canada 2012

Wireless in Canada 2012Geek Girl Dinner, Toronto

Thomas Purves tom@thomaspurves.comTwitter: @tpurves

Thank you Geek girls!

What it feels like to own a Canadian Cell Phone Contract

Telcos: One big cozy family?

How the majors are competing

Brand bamboozlement

5

Network Investment

Massive handset subsidies

(not so helpful) (helpful) (mostly helpful)

@tpurves

Regional Quirkiness

@tpurves

What about the little guys?

Rogers BellTelus

Saskt

elMTS

Wind

Video...

Mobili...

0123456789

10

Q1 2012 Canadian Mobile Subscribers(CWTA 2012 Data)

Subs

crib

ers

(Mill

ions

)

@tpurves

Sympathy for the telco industry?

Decoupling of demand and revenueaka: dumbpipeification

BandwidthDemand

Carrier Revenue

In 2011, at least one Canadian carrier was reporting data growth of 5% per week

You are here

@tpurves

What does this look like?

• From Q1 2011 to Q1 2012, Rogers saw their number of smart phone subscribers go from 3.3 to 4.6 M - 38% growth

• In the same period, Rogers total wireless revenues declined – negative 1% growth

• Solution: vertically integrate into media! Lock-up content licenses, diversify into new “value” added services

• Note: when you see a whole new service marketed by a telco, ask yourself who’s problem are they trying to solve here their’s or mine?

• Meanwhile, feed the beast… our insatiable demand for bandwidth

@tpurves

When Government takes the wheel

Government’s role• Wireless services in Canada are governed by either

the CRTC or Industry Canada. Or sometimes both. Or neither.

• Official mandate and limits of CRTC defined by Broadcast and Telecom acts (fyi: last updated by Parliament in early 90s)

• Provinces also have patchwork of consumer protection legislation relative to wireless

• Canada has no official national digital strategy

@tpurves

They told me it would be faster

What is Spectrum?

@tpurves

How this cookie is going to crumble

Rogers NewEntrants:there can only one

Bell & Telus will split these and combine them

• Contiguous spectrum is more valuable

• Rogers will take B block, aligned with ATT in the US, and try to make the best of combining it with A block

• Bell/Telus will take C1 & C2 which they may be able to make effective joint use of through their network sharing agreements

• C block will be fiercely contested by 3-4 remaining carriers (no supported by foreign financing) also helping to drive-up the bidding on B and C as well to prevent tacit collusion amongst big 3 and maximize government revenues.

Where does all the money go?

How the conservative government will spend the next 4B auction proceeds:

1. Implementing a national digital strategy2. Incentives or tax rebates for digital infrastructure investment3. Grants or venture funding for Canadian digital startups or

content creators4. Rolling out rural broadband5. Rolling out urban broadband or fibre6. Waiving HST on wired & wireless broadband subscriptions 7. Save the CBC8. General revenues9. Paying baby-boomers’ healthcare bills10. Buying votes in time for the next election

@tpurves

It’s your call

Thanks!Follow me at: @tpurves