why is developing a new mine so difficult? - oct 2013 - john p sykes - centre for exploration...

John P. Sykes

Centre for Exploration Targeting

Provisional PhD Candidate, Department of

Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin Graduate

School of Business

Adjunct Research Fellow, Department of

Geology & Geography, University of Western

Australia

Email: johnpaul.sykes@curtin.postgrad.edu.au

WHY IS DEVELOPING A NEW MINE

SO DIFFICULT?

Abstract

“Globally there have been problems in bringing new mine capacity on stream.

With little new greenfields exploration taking place at this time, the pipeline of

high-quality mine projects is not being replenished.

The problem for the mining industry is that minerals exploration takes place

over long timescales, however, “success” is judged along much shorter

timescales. Addressing this paradox is a challenge for all in minerals

exploration management.

This study has sought to address this topic by building on the author’s tacit

knowledge, gained through experience in the mining industry, combined with

a review of the business management and strategy literature.

Emergent from this research are multiple ways for examining mining industry

problems and a new approach to developing high-level strategies for

facilitating minerals exploration.”

15 October 2013

Why is developing a new mine so difficult?

Contents

• Background: a ‘discovery constrained’ mining industry

• A little bit on research philosophy & methodology

• Wasting assets & limited exploration search space

• Beginning with the end in mind

• Differing incentives of industry actors

• Focus on Horizon 2

• Sustainable mining?

• Changing value drivers with development stage

• Conclusions and further research

15 October 2013

Background: a ‘discovery

constrained’ mining industry

15 October 2013

Section 1

Commodity prices at 50+ year highs

Chart: Jacks (2013)

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Figure 1. Cumulative Changes in Prices

Relative to the Long-Run Trend

Commodity Cumulative change in price

from 1950

Copper 24.04%

Nickel 39.00%

Chromium 206.01%

Iron Ore 34.80%

Manganese 77.11%

Potash 26.72%

Gold 206.05%

Silver 123.68%

Metal and mineral commodities with half century

real price highs selected from Jacks (2013)

Growing resources indicates a

development problem?

15 October 2013

Figure 2. Years of reserves until depletion

based on current mine production

Commodity Years until depletion

Copper 40.0 years

Nickel 35.7 years

Chromium >19.2 years

Iron Ore 56.7 years

Manganese 39.4 years

Potash 279.4 years

Gold 19.3 years

Silver 22.5 years

Calculations based on USGS 2013 estimates of

global reserves and mine production, from

Edelstein (2013), Kuck (2013), Papp (2013), Tuck

(2013), Corathers (2013), Jasinski (2013) and George

(2013a, 2013b)

“…the primary factors that govern whether a given project is developed will be social,

economic, and environmental in nature.” - Mudd, Weng, & Jowitt, 2013

Resources don’t have to be economic!

PROVEN

RESERVE

PROBABLE

RESERVE

MEASURED

RESOURCE

INDICATED

RESOURCE

INFERRED

RESOURCE

Consideration of

mining, processing,

metallurgical,

economic,

marketing, legal,

environmental,

infrastructure,

social and

government factors

(the “modifying

factors”)

15 October 2013

Mineral resource:

“reasonable

prospects for

eventual economic

extraction”

- JORC Code, 2012

Substantial portions of Australian mineral resources may not be economic “economic under current or

immediately foreseeable circumstances” and may “provide a potentially misleading

perspective on the future health of Australia’s precious and base metals mining industry”

- Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010

Discovery problem caused by time

paradox

15 October 2013

“…disconnect between the very short term focus of the risk capital market compared to the

longer term gestation period required for well-conceived greenfields exploration

programmes…” - Cairns, Hronsky, and Schodde, 2010

A little bit on research

philosophy & methodology

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Section 2

Minerals, economics and consultancy

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MINERAL ECONOMICS

Geology, Engineering,

Science, Technical Classical economics,

Microeconomics, Decision

Theory, Finance, Concept

Tacit knowledge,

Practice, Results,

Focus?

Subjectivity?

Explicit knowledge,

Theory, Broad?

Objectivity?

Observe

Interpret

Disaggregate

Theorise

Sources: Frodeman (1995), Maxwell & Guj (2013)

Wasting assets & limited

exploration search space

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Section 3

Wasting assets and constant renewal

15 October 2013

“Earth rise” from Apollo 11 Image: The Guardian/NASA

Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK,

operated late 18th century to 1990

Limited search space, infinite concepts

15 October 2013

Sources:

Hronsky &

Wellborn

(2013),

Hronsky

(2009)

Beginning with the end in mind

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Section 4

Overcoming “active inertia”

15 October 2013

Habit 2:

“Begin with the

End in Mind” - Stephen R. Covey

Source: www.stephencovey.com

Image: www.amazon.com

NB: Stephen Covey does not endorse this presentation.

However, I do endorse his book!

Source: Sull (1999)

Life-cycle of a mine project

Concept Exploration Discovery Economics Development Mining

MINING

High Risk – High

Potential

Lowered risk Full Value

Speculation Orphan Period

Speculators Leave

Institutional

Investment

EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT

15 October 2013

Source:

(2010)

What makes a successful mine

project?

“Mineable” “Undiscoverable”

(we tend not to

find these!)

“Unmineable”

(usually discovered at

the production stage)

Success

“Undevelopable”

(usually get stuck in the

economics)

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Differing incentives of industry

actors

15 October 2013

Section 5

McKinsey’s 3 Horizons of Growth

Horizon 3

Create viable options

Horizon 2

Build emerging businesses

Horizon 1

Extend and defend core businesses

Time (years)

15 October 2013

Source: Coley (2009),

Baghai, Coley, and

White (1999)

Differing risk horizons? R

Corporate Risk

Technical Risk

Majors better at

handling this?

Juniors better at

handling this?

15 October 2013

Source: Trench &

Packey (2012)

The development “space” appears

to be smaller

“Mineable” “Undiscoverable”

(we tend not to find

these anyway)

Fewer “Unmineable” projects

(only the best make it into production)

Less success?

More “undevelopable”

projects

(many getting stuck in the

economics)

15 October 2013

Development triangle for global

copper projects

Prospects &

Exploration:

2,759 projects

Advanced

Exploration:

633 projects

Feasibility: 84

projects

Feasibility: 72

projects

Development:

63 projects

Data: Infomine (2013)

15 October 2013

Focus on Horizon 2

15 October 2013

Section 6

Life cycle “bow-tie” for global

copper mines & projects

Data: Infomine (2013), Ali (2010)

& Manning (1998)

ects & E

Pre- F

ility:

sibility

Production &

Recently

Closed: 566

Long Closed:

100,000s

mines?

Development

“niche” point

(“Barrier to entry”)

15 October 2013

Development criteria narrowing the

Exploration

Search Space

Wide “Mineable”

Narrow

“Developable”

Explorationists should

target “developable”

space plotting onto

Miners looking to buy advanced projects should

seek projects in the “developable” space that

plots onto the “mineable” space.

3D Truncated Cones

courtesy of Nova Scotia

Learning Resources and

Technology Resources

(2013)

15 October 2013

Sustainable mining?

15 October 2013

Section 7

Modern “Wonders of the World”?

Source:

Martin &

Morrison

(2012)

15 October 2013

“…meeting the needs of

the present without

compromising the

ability of future

generations to meet

their own needs…”

- World Commission on Environment &

Development (1987)

A successful mine project is a

sustainable one?

“Undevelopable”

(usually get stuck in

the economics)

“Unmineable”

(usually discovered at

the production stage)

“Unexplorable”

(we tend not to

find these) “Unsustainable”

(problems

significant post-

production)

Success

15 October 2013

Changing value drivers with

development stage

15 October 2013

Section 8

Research, Development, Market

Exploration Development Mining

15 October 2013

Research Development Market

Global development competiveness

15 October 2013

A development stage based profile

Source: Schwab (2013)

15 October 2013

“Active

waiting” as a

exploration

strategy

15 October 2013

Source: Sull (2005)

Conclusions and further

research

15 October 2013

Section 9

De-risking as value drivers R

Corporate Risk

Technical Risk

Majors better at

handling this?

Juniors better at

handling this?

15 October 2013

Source: Trench &

Packey (2012)

Uncertainty & risk value drivers

15 October 2013

Sources: Hronsky & Wellborn (2013), Guj (2013)

Life-cycle of a mine project

Concept Exploration Discovery Economics Development Mining

MINING

High Risk – High

Potential

Lowered risk Full Value

Speculation Orphan Period

Speculators Leave

Institutional

Investment

EXPLORATION DEVELOPMENT

15 October 2013

Source:

(2010)

Uncertainty

driven Risk

driven

Conclusions

• Why are mine projects so difficult?

• Finiteness, time & methodological paradoxes

• Moving into new “search space” – concept,

proactivity, “Beginning with the End in Mind”

• Development stages – “3 Horizons of Growth”

• Problems with “Horizon 2” – development

• Dealing with sustainability development

• Both conceptual & analytical approaches suggest

the same framework

15 October 2013

BUT (or “further research”)

• What are all the factors that affect mine projects?

• How do we deal with time (again)?

• How do we go from “concept” to the “real world”?

15 October 2013

“Be a philosopher; but, amidst all your

philosophy, be still a man”

– David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, 1748

Acknowledgements

• Curtin International Postgraduate Research Scholarship

• Centre for Exploration Targeting, Curtin Graduate School of

Business & University of Western Australia

• Professors Daniel Packey, Allan Trench, Campbell

McCuaig, Jon Hronsky, Richard Schodde & Pietro Guj

• Fellow PhD students Jon Bell & Atul Chandra

• Mike Gershon (friend/amateur philosopher) & Kataryna

Sykes (wife/editor)

15 October 2013

The author respectfully acknowledges the Indigenous

Elders, custodians, their descendants and kin of this

land past and present.

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15 October 2013

why is developing a new mine so difficult? - oct 2013 - john p sykes - centre for exploration...

new approach

mining industry problems

years of reserves

consideration of mining

sustainable mining

discovery problem

economic economicunder

mineral commodities

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