why do we have a ‘big australia’? · why do we have a ‘big australia’? stephen saunders...
Post on 18-Jul-2020
2 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
TheAustralianPopulationResearchInstitute,ResearchReport,October2018
WhyDoWeHavea‘BigAustralia’?
StephenSaunders
TheAustralianPopulationResearchInstitute<tapri.org.au>POBox12500MiddleCamberwellVictoria3124Australia
Reportauthor
StephenSaundersisaformerpublicservantandconsultant.TheAustralianPopulationResearchInstitute(TAPRI)isanindependent,non-profit,researchorganisation.
ThankstoBobBirrell(mobile0413021126)andKatharineBettsofTAPRIforcommentsondraftsofthisreport.
ArticlespublishedbytheAustralianPopulationResearchInstitutemayberepublishedprovidedtheinstituteanditswritersareappropriatelycredited,andalinkismadetoourwebsite<tapri.org.au>.
Anyarticlesreproducedcannotbeeditedoranymaterialsoldseparately.
WhyDoWeHaveA‘BigAustralia’?
StephenSaunders
Executivesummary.....................................................................................................................i
Introduction:raisingpopulationgrowth....................................................................................1
Ourpopulationgrowthisexceptionalforarichnation..............................................................1
Highpopulationgrowthisnotmandatedforhighprosperity......................................................2
BipartisanpopulationstrategyhasentrenchedBigAustralia.....................................................3
TreasuryandgrowthinaggregateGDPdriveourpopulationpoliciesandprojections................4
Thepopulationgrowthlobbyprevailsoverenvironmentandelectors.......................................5
Environmentandelectorsareputatadiscount...........................................................................6
Thestatescovet,butunder-service,highpopulationgrowth.....................................................7
States’servicesfallshort..............................................................................................................8
Housingunaffordabilityhasbecomesevere.................................................................................9
‘Decentralisation’isthefondhope.............................................................................................10
Highpopulationgrowthdistortsoureconomicfutures............................................................10
BigAustraliadistortsfutureequalityconsiderations..................................................................11
BigAustraliadistortsfutureeconomicconsiderations...............................................................11
Conclusion:loweringpopulationgrowth..................................................................................12
CappermanentmigrationandreelinNOM...............................................................................13
Movetoapopulationpolicyoflessthan1percentgrowthannually........................................13
Budgetforpopulation’slonger-termcostsasrigorouslyasforitsshorter-termGDPboosts....13
Realignourpopulationtrajectorywiththeenvironmentalconstraints.....................................13
Inthenationalinterest,establishaproperpopulationdirectorate...........................................14
Controlthetemporaryskillshortageentries..............................................................................14
Movebeyondthe‘borderprotection’boasts.............................................................................14
References...............................................................................................................................15
i
Whydowehavea‘bigAustralia’?
StephenSaunders
Executivesummary
Inpart,thisreportwaspromptedbyacasestudyofAustralia’s2011SustainablePopulationStrategy.Afteranimpressiveprocessandattractiveproduct,thenotableeffectwasanincumbentgovernmentre-endorsingthepreviousgovernment’sbigboosttomigration.
Henceaquestion,arethereunderlyingsocialoreconomicfactorswhichtendtoperpetuateacross-party‘BigAustralia’?Theanswermustbe‘yes’.Thisreportarrangesthereasonsforthisresponseundersixbanners.Inshort,theseareAustralianexceptionalism,populationstrategy,Treasury-GDPdominance,thegrowthlobby,states’compliance,andeconomicbiases.ThemainbanneristhattheTreasurypursuitofGDPgrowthdominatesourpopulationpoliciesandprojections.
Australianexceptionalism
Australia’spopulationgrowthrateismuchhigherthanworldorOECDnorms.OverseasandinAustraliaenvironmentalpoliciesfocusonclimatechangeandnotpopulationgrowth.Nevertheless,globallyitappearsthatmorenationshavepoliciestolowerratherthantoraisepopulationgrowth.Conversely,Australiaandcertainotherdevelopednationsaregoingforraisedgrowth.ButtheAustraliandiscourseglossesoverourexceptionalpolicyshift.Our21stcenturypopulationspurtisdefendedasinevitableornormal.Amongtherichnations,however,prosperityandlivingstandardsarenotpredicatedonhighpopulationgrowth.
Populationstrategy
TheBring-out-a-Briton‘PopulateorPerish’policywasafeatureofthepostwarreconstruction.Immigrationlevelsrecededoverthe1970s-1990swhiletheneo-liberaleconomicagendaadvanced.Bothmainpartiessupportedthemigrationpushoftheearly2000s.Thiscametobejustifiedvialabourshortagesoftheminingboom.Followingthegovernment’slead,TreasuryandthePrimeMinister’sDepartmentsteeredthe2011PopulationStrategyawayfromourhighpopulationgrowth.Thisevasionhasoutlivedtheminingboom,andcontinuestothepresentday.Immigrationremainshighand,untilrecently,seldomquestionedordiscussed.Our21stcenturypopulationsettings,deemedcriticalto‘GDPgrowth’,areremovedfromthepoliticalcontest.
Treasury-GDPdominance
TheGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)measureisrelativelyrecent.Itbeganitsirresistibleriseinthe1940s.Despiteeconomists’reservations,andrevisionefforts,theusualGDPformulationgovernsAustralianandotherbudgets.Inadefaultsenseonly,ourpopulationpolicyresidesintheTreasuryandisdedicatedtosupportinggrowthinaggregateGDP.Thoughour27-year‘EconomicMiracle’ofuninterruptedgrowthinGDPcontinues,thisgrowthisnowflatterandtheunderlyingcontributionofpopulationgrowthisvitaltoit.Largeclaimsaremadefordemographicandeconomic‘rejuvenation’throughBigAustralia.Thecrucialmigrationandpopulationplans,however,onlyappearas‘technical’parametersatthebackofthebudget.Ournational,state,andcityplanssimplyassumehighpopulationgrowthfordecadesahead.
Thegrowthlobby
Over1972-2006,ourpopulationgrewbyanaverageof210,000ayear.Butthataveragehastopped375,000,overtheyearssince.1AcrossthepoliticalspectrumadiversecoalitionbacksthisGDP-driven
ii
populationpush.Politicalparties,Treasury,theReserveBank,States,andindustryareprominent.‘Progressive’or‘green’voicestendtoalignwiththisdominantgroup.CountervailingscientificconcernsaroundourcarryingcapacityandStateoftheEnvironmentareatadiscount.Todaytheelectorateisshyingfromthedominantprogramofdemographicgrowth.Buttheirlegitimateconcernstendtobesidelinedorpatronisedbythepro-growthcoalition.
States’compliance
ThefederalbudgetgetsthemainGDPboostfrompopulationgrowth.Statesandcities,whilealsouppingtheirGSPs(grossstateproducts),pickupthetabforinfrastructureandservices.Thestatesareenthusiasticaboutpopulationgrowthbuttheircitizenscouldbeforgivenforthinkingthatthetabisshortpaid.Toooften,training,education,ortransportplannersare‘caughtshort’byrapidgrowth.Incongestedcitiesthathavesufferedworld-rankinghousingunaffordabilitymanysolutionsareonthetable–afterBigAustraliahasbeentakenoffthetable.Cityplansformid-centurybeginbynearlydoublingthepopulationandthenassumingthatothervariableswillfitin.Sometalkofchannellinggrowthawayfromthecitiesandintotheregionsbut‘decentralisation’hasneverbeenameaningfulsolutionforAustralia’spopulationgrowth.
Economicbiases
Underthelowermigrationofthe1970s-1990sGDPgrowthwasusuallypositive.Sincethe1980s,inequalityhasclimbed.ManyvotersandsomeeconomistsworrythatBigAustraliaitselfworksagainstwages,incomeorwealthequality,andhousingaffordability.Whichistosaythegainstothefewlookmoreassuredthanthegainsforthemany.Benefitstotheolderlookmoreassuredthanbenefitstotheyounger,ortofuturegenerations.Workingfrominternationalcomparisons,itlooksasthoughmassmigrationmaynotbethego-toprogramtoupdateoureconomyawayfromitsfocuson‘resources-and-services’andtowardsaninnovationeconomy.Nordofederalandstategovernmentsunderwritehonestinfrastructureplanstocoverthehighpopulationgrowth.
Inconclusion,theeconomicandfiscalgrowthmachinesdominateourpopulationpolicyanditspopulation‘projections’.We’veclimbedwellabovetheOECDpopulation-growthaverages.IfBigAustraliadoeslittleforequalityofopportunityorfutureeconomicpathways,whiletheenvironmentandservicesstruggleandelectorswilt,weoughttorevisitthelowerpopulationtrajectoriesthatappliedwithoutharmandnotsolongago.GiventheculturalandhistoricalrootsofBigAustraliathatmaynotbeeasy.Reformwouldmorelikelycomefrompolitical‘circuitbreakers’thanfromthebureaucracy.ThatiswhathappenedinNewZealand.Onepartybrokeranks,promisingtorealignpopulationgrowthwithinfrastructurecapacities.
InAustralia,vigorousbordercontrolpolicycoversforvigorousmigrationpolicy.2TheDepartmentofHomeAffairspursuesbothavenuesatonce.‘Stoptheboats’anddetentionprogramsdistractfromtheBigAustraliapolicy.Themigrationshortfallssince2016-17havebeenattributedtostrictersecuritychecksagainstbiggerandmoreconnecteddatabases.3
Theofficial2017-18intakeofpermanentmigrants,163,000,isstillveryhigh–just10-15percentoffsixyearsofrecordhighs.Thelatestannualnetoverseasmigration(NOM)figuresstandwellover200,000.Shorttomediumterm,theremaynotbeanydeepreflectiononourpopulationpolicy.Nevertheless,it’sjustpossiblethedisconnectionbetweenourpopulationgrowthandourcarrying(andservicing)capacitywilleventuallyproducearealpolicyshift.
Inthat,ourmigrationintakewouldturnbacktowardsthe70,000-90,000levelsof1992-2002.Also,wemightplacethepopulationtabunderaceilingof1percentgrowthayear,budgetforlonger-termmigrationimplicationsalongwithshort-termGDPboosts,reconsidertheenvironmentalconstraintswithaviewtosomethingmorelikea30mpopulationat2050,andestablishaproperpopulationagencywithitsownminister.AgracenotewouldbetoshiftourMigrationandHumanitarianplansawayfromany‘borderprotection’boasts.
1
Whydowehavea‘bigAustralia’?
Introduction:raisingpopulationgrowth
Inthe1980s,theauthorcarriedofficialresponsibilitiesforOccupationalDemandSchedulespertainingtomigrantsinthethenLabourShortagecategory.Inthoseyears,theso-calledPopulateorPerishprogram4nolongermotoredalongintopgear.Ournaturalincreasegenerallymatchedorexceeded5theNOM.Whothenwouldhavepredictedtoday’sscenario?Highpopulationgrowthhasresurgedmorethanever.
WhenKevinRuddbackeda‘BigAustralia’,6nominallyhewasjustendorsingaTreasury‘forecast’7ofa36mpopulationby2050.Thefigureofspeechwassoonplayeddownbutthepolicieswhichweresettomaketheforecastarealitywentonunchanged.
Inthispapertheterm‘BigAustralia’istakentomean:AninordinateappealtohighmigrationandhighpopulationgrowthasheadlineandfutureeconomictoolswithlargerregardforGDPgrowthandsmallerregardforenvironmentalandsocialconsequences.
From1992-93to2000-01theintakeofpermanentmigrants(includinghumanitarianmigrants)averaged85,000ayear.Possiblyrespondingtothegrowthlobby,JohnHowardpushedtheintakeuptoover100,000by2002-038andnearlyto150,000by2006-07,asurgebackedbythethenLaboropposition.RuddwasinpowerbyNovember2007,butbyJune2010hehadbeendeposedasPrimeMinisterbyhisdeputyJuliaGillard.Shesaid‘Idon’tbelieveinabigAustralia’9andwrappedupthepopulationreviewtriggeredbyRuddandhisremark.ThoughwehadforatimeaPopulationMinister,TreasuryandImmigrationprevailed.The2011‘Sustainable’PopulationStrategy10containedaparcelofsuburbanandregionalpolicymeasures.ItalsoreaffirmedtheimmigrationandpopulationsurgeLaborhadendorsedwhileinopposition.11Before2007,ourNOMhadneverinhistorytopped200,000.12Now,thisfigureistheverylowestoneusedintherangeofABSpopulation‘projections’.
WhatfactorsmightcontrivetogiveBigAustraliaanenduringtugonbipartisanheartstrings?Mustitalwaysbeacentrepieceinoureconomicfurniture?Doesasecureandprosperousnationhavenootherchoicesandalternatives?Thispaperconsidersthesequestions.
Ourpopulationgrowthisexceptionalforarichnation
Atypicallyamongtherichnations,theAustralianpolicyisforyear-on-yearhighpopulationgrowth,withthecitiesandthelandscapecommendedtofitinasbesttheycan.
Muchliketheworldatlarge,Australiaisfocusedmoreonclimatechangethanpopulationgrowth.Butourhighpopulationgrowthismostunlikethatofmostotherrichnations.
Worldpopulationis‘only’growingaround1percentayear.13Closetoa100nationsareslowergrowing.Evenat1percent,therearedauntingimplicationsfortheworldsof2050and2100.Ratherthanworldpopulationlevellingoffat9-10bnbymidcentury,arecentrevisionsuggeststhepossibilityofcontinuinggrowthto11bnbyendofcentury.14TheUNitselfhassaidsomethingsimilar,inits2017revisionofWorldPopulationProspects.15Despitethis,theUN’s17SustainableDevelopmentGoalsdonotheadlinethepopulationissueitself.16
Inworldpolicy,asinAustralianpolicy,climate-changehasbecometheheadlineenvironmentalissue.Populationitself,habitatloss,landclearing,thesixthgreatextinction,oceanandwatercrises,andenvironmentalpollutiondon’thavethesameurgency.Australianbusinessispreparingforacarbontransitionandnotapopulationtransition.Despitedecadesofgreenhousepolicy,atmosphericCO2concentrationsarestillrising.17Aftera2000sdowntrend,Australia’sofficialCO2emissionscounthasbeenrisingagain.18
2
AccordingtoUNWorldPopulationPolicies,19morenationshavepoliciestolowerpopulationgrowthratesthantoraisethem.Butnearlyhalfofnationsinthemore-developedregionsareratedashavingpoliciestoraisegrowthrates,partlyduetolowernaturalincrease.The‘raises’includemorethanadozenEUnations,plusJapan.Nearlyhalfofthenationsintheless-developedregionsareratedashavingpoliciestolowergrowth.
TheUNhasratedAustralia’spopulationpolicyasoneof‘nointervention’,despiteour21stcenturyupturn.Locallytoo,thereislimitedawarenessthatourhighpopulationgrowthisanoutlierinthedevelopedworld.20Nomajorpartysawfittoofferadefinitivepopulationpolicyatthe2016federalelection.Theattitudeisasifourhighpopulationoutcomesemergeself-willedfromtheTreasury‘estimates’andABS‘projections’–whenitwouldbemoretruthfultosaythattheyareactivelyplannedandmanagedbygovernment.TheABS‘projections’arefollowingthegovernment–muchmoresothantheotherwayround.
Gainsaying1990sAustralianAcademyofScience(AAS)concerns(seefurtheron),a2012AASthinktankrejected‘optimalpopulationsize’andsaw‘feweffectivemechanisms’tomanagenationalpopulation.21Actually,thepopulation-managementmechanismsofAustraliaandotherrichnations,ifnotexact,arequiteeffective.Over1972-98,Australiaoftenhadanannualpopulationincrementaround1percentoralittlemore.Anincreaseofover1.5percentwasquiteunusual.Since2006–intentionally-1.5percentormoreiscommon.
Comparedwithmigration,ournaturalincreaseisfairlystableandpredictablefromyeartoyear.ItdidnotrespondthatmuchupwardsuponTreasurerPeterCostello’sBabyBonus.Averagefertilityperfemalesitsjustbelowthe‘replacement’leveloftwoor2.1.Ourplannedmigrationintakeismorevariable,andourNOM.Governmentcanmanagetheformer.Insomerecentyears,immigrationhasnailedthemigrationplantothelastfewthousand.Misseslikethoseof2016-17(3percentofplan)or2017-18(15percent)areunusual.Whensuchmisseshaveoccurredtheyhavepromptedinjuredaccusationsfromthegrowthlobbyofmigrationbeinglowered‘bystealth’.
Asfaraspopulationgrowthisconcerned,NOMnowmattersmorethanthegrossfigureoftheplannedpermanentintake.Thisisbecauseitcountstheoverallsurplusofinwardoveroutwardmovements.Butitsnetfiguretendstotrackthegrossfigureofplannedpermanentmigration.Forexamplein2015-16NOMwas193,000andtheplannedpermanentintake(includingHumanitarian)207,325,andin2016-17NOMwas245,500andtheplannedpermanentintake197,308.Ifyoudoublepermanentmigration,usually,youwillroughlydoubleNOM.
ManagingNOMincludesmanagingthevarioustemporary-entrantcategories,includingStudents,WorkingHolidayMakersandpeopleonbridgingvisasand‘457s’(nowTemporarySkillShortagevisas).VariousreportsgraphtherisingNOMofabout2005-06onwards,ascomparedwithfairlyflatnaturalincrease.22TheaverageNOMfromJune2007toJune2017was222,400,comparedtoanaveragefor1982-2006of100,100.23The2018budgetNOM‘assumptions’sitwellonthehighsideoftheofficialmigrationplanof190,000.
Itmaybesaidthatgovernmentcannot,orevenshouldnot,managepopulation.Butournaturalincreaseisfairlystable,governmentcaneasilyplanthepermanentmigrationvisas,andactualarrivalsunderthispartoftheintakewillusuallycomeinclosetoplan.From1985through2017,tonote,thecalendaryearNOMhastoppedthefiscal-yearpermanentmigrantarrivalsinabout70percentoftheyears.
Highpopulationgrowthisnotmandatedforhighprosperity
Populationgrowth,asitispractisedbyAustralia,isnotnecessaryorinevitable.Bypolicyratherthanbydiktat,IranandThailandsteeredfrom3percentpopulationgrowthperannumdownto1percentandless.24(Iranhassincegonepro-growthagain.)Whileour1.5percent-and-upgrowthratesarenotthose
3
ofcertainAfricanorAsiannationstheyarealongwayabovethemajorEuropeanorEnglish-speakingnationsintheOECD.
AroundtheOECDitisusefultodistinguishbetweenpopulationandgeography.Palpably,EUnationsandtheUShaveborderissues,worsethanours.Theyalsohavelowpopulation-growthrates.TheScandinaviannationsarebecomingmoreculturallymixed.Thishascreatedtensions.Theirbudgetmathseemsunlikelytofactorinhighpopulationgrowth.Withinlivingmemory,Australia(now25m)andSweden(10m)havehadnearlyidenticalpopulationsof7-8m.
For50years,GermanyandFrancehavegenerallyhadpopulationgrowth(much)lowerthan1percentayear.Theytoohaverefugeeandmigranttensions.Japanhashadpro-growthpolicies,butalsoloworevennegativepopulationgrowth.ToholdupGDPpercapita,itlookstoindustryandtechnologypathways,andutilisationoftheworkforce.AverageratesofannualgrowthinGDPpercapitabetween1990and2017wereverysimilarforJapan(1.1percent)andAustralia(1.2percent).25AmongOECDcountrieshighpopulationgrowthisnotmandated,forlivingstandardsandprosperity.26
Tokeepitspopulationgrowthtickingoveratrateslikeoursarichnationonlyhastoadoptaprodigalimmigrationpolicy.Already,we’veovertakenthe1998mid-range,or‘SeriesII’,ABSforecastforAustralia’smid-centurypopulation.27Thestrikingimpactofthe21stcenturypopulationpushwasnotforeseenthen.ButthispushhaschangedAustraliaandconstraineditsfutureoptions.
Thequestionis,forwhosebenefit?Inthisreport,themainoutcomeisgrowthinaggregateGDP.Therehasbeenlittleornobenefitforenvironmentortheelectorate.Onthecontrary,therehavebeencosts,costswhicharenotreckonedintheGDPfigures.Forexample,neithertheCommonwealthnorstateshavekeptupdutifullywiththeinfrastructureandservicerequirementsofrapidpopulationgrowth.
BipartisanpopulationstrategyhasentrenchedBigAustralia
Bothmainpartiesbackedtherevivedpopulationpushoftheearly2000s,whichcametobeenshrinedinthe2011SustainablePopulationStrategy,andhasoutlivedtheminingboom.
WhiletheoldPopulateorPerishpolicypredatestherisetoprominenceoftheGDPmeasure,thenewBigAustraliapolicypostdatestherisetoprominenceofneo-liberalism.
In1945,Labor’sArthurCalwellfearedforour‘islandcontinent’28andsoughtsustainedpopulationgrowth.WhilemanyEuropeanrefugeesarrived,Britishtypeswerepreferred.Inthatera,itwouldhavebeeninconceivablethatIndigenouslandrightsandnativetitlewouldeventuallycoveraboutathirdofthe‘empty’continent.Fordefenceanddevelopment,Calwellsoughtanannualrateofpopulationgrowthoftwopercent,halfimmigrationandhalfnaturalincrease.
Thisgrowthpolicycontinued,indeedintensified,upontheLiberalwinof1949.Sometimeafterpostwarreconstructionandthe1950sboom,arethinkorresetmighthavebeenexpected.It’struethatimmigration(asmeasuredbyNOM)29diddecelerateafterahighpointof140,000in1969.
Between1972and1998,butnotsince,NOMwasregularlywellunder100,000ayear(averagingaround81,000pa).30Annualpopulationgrowthwascommonlyaround1percent.In1975,atonepoint,NOMdippedunder15,000.
Bythe1980sguidingneo-liberalpreceptshadtakenwing.Fordiscussionpurposes,lettheseincludeideassuchas‘free’tradeandmarkets,assetsalesor‘recycling’,lowergovernmentspending,deregulation,privatisation,andausterity.Australianpolicymakersonbothsidesofnationalpoliticswelcomedelementsoftheseprecepts.NeoliberalismimpactednotjustontheCommonwealthgovernmentbutalsoimpactedonthestates(seefurtheron).Ifanything,theneoliberalagendaservestoencouragepopulation-andconsumption–thetwinfuelsofoptimismamongbusinessinterests.Itdoeslittletoencourageexaminationofthedistributionaleffectsofpopulationgrowth.Thepushtore-inflatemigrationbeganas
4
earlyas200031andreallybitby2005.Atthattime,theLaboroppositionleader(KimBeazley)wasaself-confirmed‘highimmigrationman’.32Histhenopponent(JohnHoward)haslabelledhimselfidentically.33Pressedbytheminingboom,bothgovernmentandoppositionwereunitedonthe‘economicneed’formoremigrants.Thiswassaidtobeduetolabourshortagesandtrainingshortfalls.Theoppositionruedfallingcompletionsamongtraineesfortrades.Governmentpromisedmoremoneyfortechnicalcolleges,TAFE(TechnicalandFurtherEducation),thatis.
WritingwithKathleenMackie,thepresentauthor34sawtheRudd-Gillardpopulationreviewof2010-11asentrenchingatwo-partyaccordforrisingpopulationgrowth,drivenbythepursuitofgrowthinaggregateGDP.Though‘robust’migrationwastobeassumed,governmentalsoclaimeditcouldn’t‘predictordirectlycontrol’population.Theideaof‘carryingcapacity’wasrejected.
Perhapsmirroringtheeuphemismof‘climatechange’for‘globalwarming’,ministersfromtheoutsetspokeofpopulation‘change’and‘regionaldifference’.Treasuryofficialsweresecondedto,whatwasnominallyanEnvironmentDepartmentreview,andthendominatedit.Thereviewoverlookedthemajorpolicyshiftbythepreviousgovernment–alargeincreaseinplannedmigrationandaneardoublingoftheNOMfigures.Usefulinternationalcomparisonswereeschewed.TheIssuesPapershirkedtheissuesandthePrimeMinister’sDepartmentmassagedthefinalStrategy.
Thisunprecedented21stcenturypopulation-drive,withannualpopulationgrowthof1.5percentorhigher,hasnotbeendebatedorcontestedatrecentfederalelections.Norwasitinterruptedbythe2008GFC,orthewind-downoftheminingboomafter2012.From2012-13throughto2018-19,plannedpermanentmigrationvisashavebeenseton‘autopilot’at190,000ayear(ormorethan200,000whentheHumanitarianProgramisincluded).Actualarrivalshaveusuallyfollowedsuit.Therecentshortfallsaresurprising.
TreasuryandgrowthinaggregateGDPdriveourpopulationpoliciesandprojections
Inamannernotforeseeableseventyyearsago,GDPrequirementshavebecomethemaindriverofAustralianpopulationpoliciesandprojections-atnational,state,andcity,levels.
TheGDPconceptwasfarlessdominant,when‘PopulateorPerish’becamepolicyin1945.Now,thepursuitofgrowthinaggregateGDPdrivesourpopulationpoliciesandprojections.Andviceversa.
Calwellhadaddressedthepopulationquestionsoonafterthe1944BrettonWoodsmonetaryconference.Thiswastosetthe‘Kuznets’GDPonitsrapidcoursetobecomethe‘onestattorulethemall’.PostGFC,JosephStiglitzurgedashiftfromGDP‘fetishism’.35RobertGordonhasnotedtheflawsofGDPincapturingepochalUStechnologyandconsumershifts.36ButgrowthinrealGDPperpersonisstillhisbasicindicatorofimprovementsinlivingstandards.DianaCoylefearsGDPisproblematic,fora21stcenturyeconomyofinnovation,servicesandintangibles.37
Majorpowers,andthenquiterecentlyNewZealand,38havemadeeffortstoparlayGDPintofairerandgreenermeasures,ofeconomicactivitiesandcommunitywellbeing.ForothersgrowthinaggregateGDPhasbecomeanendinitself,ratherthanbeingoneofanumberofusefultoolstogaugetheeconomy.
Australiaboastsofan‘EconomicMiracle’nowyielding27yearsofGDPgrowth.A2003(ProductivityCommission)Miraclespeechdoesn’tdwellonpopulationgrowth.39PostGFC,JohnFosterclaimedtheMiraclewas‘highlycorrelated’withoutput-growthpercapita,notpopulationgrowth.40Whichlatterwemightwell‘stabilise’inviewofourfragileenvironment.
Bydefault,populationpolicy(whichistosaypopulationgrowthpolicy)residesintheTreasury.But‘population’isnotamajorpolicytopicontheirpublicwebsite.Nordotheyoffersubstantiveexplanationsofthepolicy.TheABS,however,documentsthepopulationoutcomesandtrends.Also,themigration
5
programinHomeAffairshasgooddocumentationandastatedpurpose–‘tobuildtheeconomy,shapesociety,supportthelabourmarketandreunitefamily’.41
TheHumanitarianprogram(whichincludesrefugees)andprovidespermanentvisasiscountedoverandabovethegeneralpermanentMigrationprogram.Thiscenturythefirsthasnotkeptpacewiththesecond.TheHumanitarianintake,atlessthan20,000ayear,is1/10orless,ontopofcurrentpermanentmigrationorindeedofNOM.Richnations’humanitarianintakes,viatheUNHCRorotherroutes,areeversmall,ascomparedwiththeglobalmillionsofdisplacedpeople,manyoftheseinNearEastorAfricancountries.42
Governmentsinthemore-developedregions,asUNWorldPopulationPolicieshasalsoreported,aremuchmorelikelytobeworriedabout‘populationageing’thanaboutdisplacedpeople.Thus,Australiamightclaimthathighermigrationcanmanageitsagepyramidtowardmuchgreateryouth.TheReserveBankbacksthisclaim.43VariousProductivityCommissionreportsquerythelastingeffectsandtheoveralleconomicbenefitsofthis‘rejuvenation’.44Atthebaseoftheagepyramid,theBabyBonusdidnotachievea‘threechild’effect,astheTreasurerhadjested.
Withinthepermanentintakefrom1982to1997,butnotsince,Family-reunionmigrationdominatedSkillmigration.Since2011-12,SkillhastoppedFamilytwotooneorbetter.45But‘Skill’nowreferstowell-suppliedprofessions,muchmorethanskillsincurrenthighdemandwithemployers.46At2017-18,NationalSkillShortageswerenotinprofessions,butbuilding,auto,andtechnicaltrades.47Moreovermorethanhalfofthe‘skilled’permanentintakearesecondaryapplicants—spouseanddependentchildren.48Theyhelpboostthenumbersbutmaynotaddtoskills.
The‘buildtheeconomy’objectiveofimmigrationremainstrue,atleastinthesenseofpopulationboostingGDP.Over2005-13,ourannualpopulationgrowthrateof1.7percentisthehighestintheOECDapartfromLuxembourgandIsrael.49Similarpopulationsettingshavepersistedsince2013.
Ourmigrationandpopulationplans-criticaldeterminantsofanestimated3percentGDPgrowth–onlymaterialiseastechnical‘parameters’atthebackofthethirdBudgetPaper.50Here,NOMsof235,000(calendar2018)and231,000(2019)areassumed.Theresultingpopulationestimatesimply1.6percentpopulationgrowthfor2018over2017,2019/2018.
Thesemigrationhighshaveabsorbedfriendlyfire.ItturnedoutthattheHomeAffairsMinisterhadcanvassedaminorcorrectionwithpublicservicemandarinsandsomecabinetcolleagues.51Later,theTreasurersmotheredasuggested80,000cut.52Theunchangingmigrationplanof190,000ispresentednowasa‘ceiling’andnota‘target’.Toitweshouldaddaround15,000offshorehumanitarianmigrants.53Itremainstobeseenhowthisimpactsonthe2018NOMresult.
Highpopulationgrowth,indecadesahead,isstillgenerallyassumedinthenationaleconomic(orTreasury’sfive-yearly‘intergenerational’)reports.ThecurrentABSmid-range‘projections’forthemidcenturyaresimilartoorhigherthanthe36mofRudd’stime.Similarly,stateandcitypopulation‘projections’commonlytakeforgrantedthenationalplans(seefurtheron).
Thepopulationgrowthlobbyprevailsoverenvironmentandelectors
Goingacrossthepoliticalspectrum,abroadcoalitionforBigAustraliaprevails,overridinganyenvironmentalimplicationsorelectorateconcerns.
Sofar,theGDP-dominatedapproachtopopulationpolicyprevails.SupportforthisBigAustraliaisbipartisan,withreflexivebackingfromTreasuryandtheReserveBank.Othercentresofinfluentialsupportincludestateandcitygovernments,industry,thedevelopmentorpropertylobby,media(tosomeextent),manyacademicsandprofessionals,theAustralianCouncilofTradeUnionsandvarioussocialandreligiousorganisations.
6
Thisisaloosegroupingfordiscussionpurposes,butitcanoperateasacohesivegroupinreallife.Acompactofindustry,unions,socialandmigrantservices,averredthatthepost-2011migrationlevelswerenotforturning.54The2017-18‘shortfall’inthepermanentintakeisnottotheirliking.
SupportersofpopulationgrowthmaybemotivatedbyadesiretoboostGDPgrowth-orsimplybyprofit.Othersupportersmaybemotivatedbyaperceivedpublicinterest,forexampleadesiretoincreaseculturaldiversityandsupportmulticulturalism.Similarly,the(advertised)motivesofthepoliticalpartiesmayleantowardeconomicgrowthandindustry,orsocietyandjustice.WhiletheLiberalandLaborPartieshavelongbeenpro-populationgrowth,uptothe1990s,theGreensofferedmoreofanalternative.Now,candidatesfromallthreepartiesseemtobemorepro-immigrationthanthevoters.55
Themediacoverageofthe2018budgetdidnotunpackthecrucialmigrationandpopulationsettingsfor‘GDPgrowth’.Stategovernmentreactions,whileconcernedwithwhat‘their’stategot,alsofitthisframe.However,asperthereferenceshere,theAustralianmediadoesofferbroadcoverageofsocialandeconomicissuesaroundpopulationgrowth.Bothcommercialandnon-commercialagenciesmayrunstronglycontraryeconomicopinionsonpopulation.56Such,however,maybeoffsetbytheeditorialorbyotherpieces.57
Graduates,academics,andcertainprofessionals,leanmoretowardsimmigrationthandoestheaveragevoter.58It’snotthatsurprisingifeconomistsordemographerswillcommonlyendorsehighpopulationgrowth.Urbanplannershavealreadypositionedthemselvesforthenational‘journey’to50mafter2061.59Notuncommonly,naturalandsocialscientistsbowto,or‘workaround’,thegovernment’shigher-populationpolicy,beingaversetochallengingitopenly.Inpracticaleffect,both‘progressives’and‘greens’aremorelikelytoalignwiththehigh-growthpolicies,ratherthanwithenvironmentalorelectoralconcerns.
Environmentandelectorsareputatadiscount
‘Mainstream’economicshasrevivedquestionsofpowerandequality,butithaslesstosayaboutpopulationgrowth.60Theenvironmenthasbeenabsorbedinto‘environmental’accountingandeconomicswhereittendstovanishfrompublicview.Inthedecadeto2015-16,itwasreckonedthatAustralia’sGrossValueAddedgrew28percentin‘chainvolume’terms,asagainstgrowthinwastegenerationof23percent,populationgrowth16percent,energyconsumption6percent,andgreenhouseemissionsminus13percent.61Whilethislookslikeaneconomicgrowthpatternlessdependentonresourceconsumption,itiswasteandpopulationintensive,andcongratulationsshouldbetemperedagainstthesoberingStateoftheEnvironment(SoE)reportsdiscussedbelow.
Uptoandincludingthe1990s,Australiamadedeterminedeffortstogaugeits(all-time)carryingcapacity.Thatis,thereasonablelimitsonpopulationandexploitationsoasnotto(further)degradetheenvironment.Therewasaparliamentaryinquiry62andanAASsymposium.63Thelatterputourcapacityaround23matthe‘low,stableend’.TimFlanneryventureda‘realisticmaximum’of20-30m,thoughthiswasnotthe‘wholestory’.64The23mishistory.Wehavealreadyhit25mandcurrentABS‘projections’putusover30matorbefore2030.
Inpurelybio-geographicterms,those1990sestimatesweregenerous.But‘carryingcapacity’,inthesepreciseterms,hasgoneofftheradarinmorerecentyears.Independentscientificviewsmaystillbefound,forexampleintheofficialfive-yearlySoEreports.Thesereportsimplythat,ifwinningsomebattles,we’renotwinningthegreenwar:‘ThemainpressuresfacingtheAustralianenvironmentin2016arethesameasthosereportedinSoE2011,climatechange,land-usechange,habitatfragmentationanddegradation,andinvasivespecies’.65Theinclinationtouseaccountingmanoeuvresasregardsland-usechange,tohelpusbridgeourinternationalcommitmentsasregardsclimatechange,shouldbenotedhere.66
7
CommunitypreferencesaroundBigAustraliahavefluctuated.A1997parliamentaryreport67claimed‘consistentmajoritysupport’forlowermigration.Supportforlevelorhighermigrationappearedtobestronger,over2001-2009.68By2015,surveysindicatedthatahalfofusdidn’twantmorepeople,orthoughtthatAustraliawasgrowingtoofast.69
At2017,theresident-basedScanlonsurvey70stillhadlessthanahalfofuswantinglowermigration.Buta2017TAPRIvoter-basedpoll71has74percentsayingwedon’tneedmorepeople.Only54percenttranslatethattolowermigration,perhapsindicatingatingeofobligation.The2018voter-basedEssentialReport72has64percentwantinglessmigration,and54percentwantinglowerpopulationgrowth.Eventhe2018LowyInstitutepollhasfound,forthefirsttimeever,thatamajoritywantslowermigration.73
It’seasytooverlookthefactthatIndiaandChinahavenowovertakentheUKasourmajorsourcesofimmigrants.74Inthepoliticaltheatre,‘African’and‘Muslim’immigrationloomsmuchlarger.Eachofthesecomponentsremainsquitesmall,whetherviatheMigration,ortheHumanitarian,channel.Whileordinaryvotersmaybeconcernedatbeing‘thoughtof’asracist,75theirturningawayfromhigh21stcenturypopulationgrowthhasmoretodowithchronicissuesinurbaninfrastructureandservices,housingaffordability,theenvironment,andqualityoflife.
Thegrowthlobbycontinuestoargueforthesupposed‘rejuvenating’effectsofBigAustralia,76andpatronisesseriouselectoralconcernsasbeingreadilymanageable,oftenviainfrastructureanddecentralisationcure-allsthatthusfarhaveprovenineffectual.Withdifferingcosmetics,bothmainpartiesstillbackhighpopulationgrowthastheenginefor‘jobsandgrowth’.Byimplication,such‘growth’iswellplacedtomeetpresentandfutureneedsofordinary(andyounger)Australians.Theclosingsectionsquiztheseassumptions.
Thestatescovet,butunder-service,highpopulationgrowth
BigAustraliaisastartingpointforstateandcityplanningnarratives,withinfrastructureandservices(ordecentralisation)somehowexpectedto‘catchup’orkeepup.
Plannersandpossiblymanyvotersdisplaylittleinterestin‘carryingcapacity’,butour‘servicingcapacity’remainsapotentissue.Federalgovernment,thesedays,isthemainincomeandcompanytaxcollector,andderivestheimmediateGDPsugar-hitfromhighpopulationgrowth.Stategovernments,whilealsoboostingtheirGrossStateProducts(GSPs),pickupmuchofthetabforthenecessaryinfrastructureandservices.
Likethepoliticalparties,thestateshaveeyesforeachother.InacyclicalraceforpolepositionsinpopulationgrowthandGDPgrowth,they’vebeeneagertoofferbusinessencouragementandtaxbreaks.RarelywouldastateleaderpresumetoqueryBigAustralia,asBobCarrdidin2000,rightatthebeginningofthe21stcenturypopulation-push.Sydney’spopulationthenstoodataround4m,whileitsmedianhousepriceswerebelow$300,000.
Thepresent-daystateandcitypopulation‘projections’commonlytakeasreadtheramped-upnational‘projections’.Forexample,thenewcityplansforSydney,Melbourne77andPerth78areassuminganeardoublingofpopulationbythemidcentury.Nottobeoutdone,BrisbaneVision203179assumeda50percentpopulationhikeover2013-31.
Invokingconceptsof‘ThreeCities’and‘ThirtyMinute’Sydney,LucyTurnbull’sGreaterSydneyPlanembraceseightmillionbymidcentury,focusedaroundthreeseparatehubs.80PlanMelbournesaysthatJobs,Housing,andTransportwill‘need’to‘adapt’.Thegoalofeightmillionisthereupfront.
InserviceofGDPgrowth,highpopulationgrowthisthegiven.Thenaturalandurbanenvironmentandothervariableshavetoworkaroundit-ratherthanpopulationbeingmanagedtofitwithourrealistic
8
infrastructurecapacities.Insuchanarrative,BigAustraliaissimplyassumedtobethecorrectchoice.Stateandcityinfrastructureandservicesaresomehowtocatchuporkeepup.
Meanwhile,therearecontinuinggapsorinequitiesintheprovisionoftraining,schools,hospitals,transport,housing,orotherinfrastructure.Thesegapsrelatetohighpopulationgrowth,theneo-liberal‘competition’andprivatisationdrives,othersocialoreconomicagendas.Ordinarycitizensaremoreaffectedbygapsinprovisionthanarethepoliticaleliteswhocausethem,andarelessabletobuytheirwayoutofthem.Theyoungeragegroups,thevulnerableanddisadvantaged,someoftherecentarrivals,orthoseinnewer‘stranded’suburbswithlimitedmetrotransitareparticularlyaffected.
States’servicesfallshort
Duringtheminingboom,whileboostingmigration,federalgovernmenthadalsoindicatedthatmoremoneywouldbeavailableforTAFE,inresponsetothe(state-based)skillshortfalls.Thathasn’treallyhappenedbutprivateprovidersoftechnicalandfurthereducationhavebeenencouraged,withmixedresults,includingreportsoffraud.81Highmigrationcanstillcoexist,withskillshortages,eveninthefaster-growingstates.
ThoughTAFEmakesthehardyardsofskillstraining,faithinTAFEcompetitionwithprivateproviderswentunshaken.Induecourse,thisdebouchedontotheVETFEE-HELPscandal.82
Thetrendofthepastdecadeisgrowing(Commonwealth)universityfundingandplaces,versuslowerstate-basedfundingforvocationaleducationandtraining(VET)places.83NationalVETandTAFEenrolments,saystheNationalCentreforVocationalEducationandTraining(NCVER),declinedabout6percentincalendar2017.AconcernoftheAustralianIndustryGroup(AIG)isthatreformsofthepasttwodecadeshave‘donelittletopreventdeclineinapprenticeshipnumbers,completionratesorperceptionsrelatedtoquality’.84NCVERhaslookedattrainingfutures,tokeepupwiththefourthor‘digital’IndustrialRevolution.85
In2017-18,87percentofallmigrantsselectedundertheSkillscategorysettledinSydneyorMelbourne,witheventheminister86concedingthiswasnotideal.Nonetheless,thisyear’sgeneralmigrationplanof190,000stillaimsfornearly130,000‘Skill’migrants.Asnotedabove,themigrationSkillLists(theMediumandLong-termStrategicSkillsList[MLTSSL]andShort-termSkilledOccupationList[STSOL])areexpansive.Theyattractprofessionswhicharealreadyingoodsupply,anddomuchlesstoattractcandidatesforjobsortradesin(regional)shortsupply.The2017-18NationalSkillShortagesgototradesratherthanprofessions.That’sreflectedintheShortageListsforNSWandVictoria–onceagainthestateswithstrongaggregateeconomicgrowth.TAFE‘reforms’inthesestateshavetakenonanominouscast.PerhapsVictoria’s(2018budget)TAFEpackageisaswingtheotherway.
NationalmigrationpolicyputswelloverhalfofNOMstraightintoSydneyorMelbourne,87withmostoftheremaindergoingtootherlargecentres.Butasnotedabove,populationpressure,however,isnotabigpriorityinCommonwealthfundingforinfrastructure,includingschools.Three-fifthsofthe$19.5bn(2018-19)‘Quality’Schoolsfundisreservedforselectiveprivateschools.Theseschoolsare‘transitioningover6to10yearsto80percentoftheSchoolingResourceStandard(SRS)’88withgovernmentschoolson20percent.89Thestatesaremeantbylawtofundatleast75:15,theotherway(ie75percentforgovernmentschoolsand15percentforprivateschools).They’rethefrontlineofschoolingpressuresfromrapidpopulationgrowth.
Butsell-offsormergersofstateschoolsonhigh-valuesiteshavebeencommon.Therisingdemandsforgovernment-schoolplacesinhigher-growthareasofSydneyandMelbournearesomehow‘miscalculated’timeandagain.90Queensland,finallyrespondingto‘enrolmentpressures’,isbuildingInnerBrisbane’sfirstnewstatehighschoolsin55years.91
9
Australiahasmorestudents(one-third)in‘privateyetgovernmentdependent’schoolsthanalmostanyotherOECDcountry.92Bythemid2020scombinedCommonwealth-statefundingmaywellpushmany(ormost)oftheseschoolsover100percentofSchoolingResourceStandard(SRS),thatis,highdependenceongovernmentmoneydespitetheirnotionallyprivatestatus,93withmanyormoststateschoolsundera100percent.94WetrailonOECDschoolingequityandqualitycomparisons.Underthepresentpopulationandfundingregimes,thesegapswilllikelypersistorwiden.
Among41richernations,weratedlowerforQualityEducationandhigherforSustainableCities.SuchwastheUNESCOscorecard,forninechild-relevantSustainableDevelopmentGoals.95WesatmidfieldonGoodHealth,DecentJobsandEconomicGrowth,ReducedInequality,andResponsibleConsumption.Amongthehighest-incomenations,athinktankrecentlyscoredouroverallhealthsystemveryhighly,96despiteaccessandequityissues.AnalogousOECDhealth-systemcomparisonsaregenerallyfavourabletoAustralia.Butunderlyingthesefavourablecomparisonsareserioushealthinequalities,correlatingwithspatialandclassinequalities.
Asisthecaseforourpublicschooling,ourinter-cityandmetrotransitscrambletokeeppacewithpopulationgrowth.Wecar-commutelessthantheUS,butmoresothantheEU.Ourcitiesremainverycongested,byworldcommutingstandards.97Fromthe1980s,whenUScities(evenLosAngeles)andEUcitieswererethinkingmetrotransit,SydneyandMelbournetransitwerecontinuingtoinvestinfreewaysandso-called‘public-privatepartnership’tollways.
Afterthe1980s,Canberraenjoyedflourishingpopulationgrowthandroadsinvestment,versusstraitenedbusservicesandstaticorfallingridership.ThoughdubiousaboutCanberrarail,theurbanplannerPaulMees98alsoscoredCanberraasabigfail,incomparisonwithAustralia’sgeneralpickupinmetro-transitafter1996.The2016ACTelectionwasalmostasingle-issuelight-railpoll.Thelight-railplannowproceeds.Justifiedviaanticipatedpopulationgrowthandurbandevelopment,it’salsoacatch-uponpastpopulationgrowth.Australiancapitalcities’totalpublictransportpassengernumbers,thoughrecoveringsincethe1990s,werestilllowerat2013thantheywerein1945.99
Inthe1980s,aproposalfora‘VeryFastTrain’betweenSydney,CanberraandMelbournefoundered.Todayournationalpopulationis50percenthigher,andourinter-urban‘FasterRail’initiativeisexaminingthreemuchlessambitiousproposals.Melbournestillawaitsaraillinktoits1970airport,andMelbourneandSydneymetrotransitplannersstillget‘caughtshort’bypredictablepopulationgrowth.Changingplans,stretchedservices,andcrowdedtransit,arestaplesonthedailynews.
Perth,thoughcar-reliant,augmenteditsfreeways(nottollways)withtwobrand-newandsuccessfulheavy-railspines.Itsairportlinkproceeds.ButWesternAustraliadidn’tcashintheminingboom.Statedebtgrew,bysomemultiples,andremainshigh.Perthhasasupposedly‘droughtproof’population-growthformula,counteringitsrecent20percentdeclineinrainfall.100Thelongertermhaswrought80-90percentdeclinesinthestream-flowintoolderPerthdams101andinthesalt-suppressingnative-vegetationcoveroftheSouthWest.102MoresubtlythanSydney,Perthtoositsamongworld-rankedbiodiversity.TheSouthWesthostsaremarkable7,000vascularplantspeciesorabout35percentoftheall-Australiatotal.103Afullanalysisofthedauntingimplicationsofpopulationgrowthfortheprotectionofbiodiversityandtheavailabilityofwaterisbeyondthescopeofthispaper.
Housingunaffordabilityhasbecomesevere
Publicor‘social’housinghasshrunksincethe1980s.WehavehadOECD-toppinghousingunaffordabilityinSydneyandMelbourne.104ThereisaversiontolinkingthiswithourOECD-toppingpopulationgrowth–despitemostofNOMgoingtoSydneyorMelbourne.105Thepropertylobbyandthinktanks106say,don’tfretaboutpopulationgrowth,focusonmorelandforsubdivisionsandmorehouses.ButanANUsurveyover2001-16suggestedwe’dgenerallybuiltenoughdwellings,includingincities.107
10
ThefederalLaboroppositionhashadpoliciestoreininnegativegearingforinvestorhousingaswellascapital-gainstaxdiscounts.There’slittledesireoneithersideofpoliticstobringeither‘official’ortacitpopulationpolicyintoplay,orindeed‘official’interestrates.Banksremainhighlyexposedtomortgages,thoughinvestor-lendingandinterest-onlyloanshavebeencurtailed.Whilesensitivetohousepricesandinequality,theReserveBankofAustralia(RBA)alsolionisesimmigrationandpopulationgrowthasa‘sourceofstrength’.108Itexplainshighhouse-pricesinSydneyandMelbourneintermsof‘zoningrestrictions’ratherthanintermsofpopulationgrowth.109ButNOMisabigdriverofthesecities’growthindemandfordwellings.De-zoningcan’tfixtheirhousingunaffordability.110
Thegrowthlobbyistsclaimtobegreatlyconcernedabouthousingaffordability.Butabigslumpincityhouse-priceswouldalsobeaworry.ThoughtheACTisaxingitsfirst-homegrants,NSWandVictoriahaveuppedtheirs,andtheirlargepopulationinjectionscontinue.Unaffordablehousingdisproportionatelyaffectsintergenerationalequity.Australia-wide,medianhousepricesinrelationtohouseholdincomesdoubledover1981-2015.111InSydneyandMelbourne,house-pricemediansreachedtenmultiplesofhouseholdincomes.112Thoughrealestatenowappearstobe‘offtheboil’inthesecities,alargeandhighlycentralisedmigrationprogramdoeslittlefortheaffordabilitycause.
‘Decentralisation’isthefondhope
Statesmighthopetoreduceinfrastructureandhousingpressuresbychannellingpopulationawayfromcities.Intheongoingnarrative,highpopulationgrowthitselfisnottobequestioned.Advocatesprefertheperennialhopeof‘decentralisation’,especiallyofmigrants.Migrantsshouldsomehowbepersuadedtosettleintheregionsratherthaninthemajorcities.Butgeographyand(European)settlementhistorysuggestthisprojectisunlikelyevertohaveabigimpact.
Regionalismwasthefirstandlastexcuseinthepopulationreviewof2010-11.ButasthefailedprojectsinitiatedbytheDepartmentofUrbanandRegionalDevelopmentinthe1970sandthefailureoftheproposedMultifunctionPolisinthe1980ssuggest,persuadingnewcomerstosettleenmasseinregionalareasisnotlikelytosucceed.Since1945Australiahasbeenexcellentatrawpopulationgrowthbutgetspoorgradesondecentralisation.Weremainoneofthemosturbanisednationsintheworld.Evenat1945,SydneyandMelbournehousedabout35percentoftheAustralianpopulation.Now40percentofus(andabout60percentofourtotalhousingmarketbyvalue)arefoundinjustthesetwocities,ofcloseto5mapiece.Around65percentofusliveintheeightcapitalcities,ofwhichsevenhugthecoast.113
‘Carryingcapacity’ornot,thisfitsthepicture,ofdryAustralia’sgeography,poorsoils,micro-scaleevolutionaryadaptations,andclimateandrainfallextremes.Itdidn’tfitwiththeNorthernAustraliaWhitePaper,114whichstokedtheoldgeographicalanxietiesofmakingabigcontinent‘safeandsecure’.Despitespecificregionalthreatsoflossofbiodiversitythroughextinction,thisPaperpromotedbroad-scaledamminganda4-5timeshikeintheregion’spopulation.
Canberraisrelativelyclosetocoastandstillcontinuesasourmaindecentralisationsuccesssincefederation.ArecentanalysisratesInnerSydney,BrisbaneandMelbourneasthemainwinnersfromtheprogramsince2013to‘decentralise’Canberra’sfederalpublicservants.115
Highpopulationgrowthdistortsoureconomicfutures
WillBigAustraliabebetterorkinderforusall?
AftertheGFC,ourbiggestboomofmodernhistory,and27yearsofaggregateeconomicgrowth,who’swinningfromBigAustralia?Whyisthegrowthlobbykeeneronitthanelectors?Focusingonequalityandopportunity,notthe‘racism’canard,whyare‘socialists’justaskeenas‘conservatives’?It’snotthateasy,tosortoutanywin-loseeffectsfromthepost-2000populationboom.Inanyevent,equalityofopportunitywasneverthemainpriorityofthegrowthlobby.
11
Duringthemigrationlullof1972-98,growthinaggregateGDPwasvolatile,butitwasofteninthe3-5percentrange.Since1998,ithastrackedatorabitunder3percent.DialdownBigAustralia,andthestoryofthe‘EconomicMiracle’maybeatrisk.Keepit,andwefaceotherrealpresentandfuturecosts.
BigAustraliadistortsfutureequalityconsiderations
ThoughotherOECDnationshavegreaterconcentrationsofwealth,Australiaisarichcountry,amongthetop10percent.But,ifhousingisthekeytohouseholds’accumulationofwealththenourshasbecomemuchlessaffordable,andinequalityhaswidened.Wecan’tdirectlyassesstheimpactofBigAustraliaitselfbecausewecan’tstudysomeotherAustralia,thesameastheonewehavebutwithlowpopulationgrowth.ButsomeEuropeancountrieshavelowerpopulationgrowthandlowerinequalitythanAnglonations.Pikettysaw‘strong’demographicgrowthasapotentialequaliser-notexcludingmore-developednations.TheUNhassaidsomethingsimilaraboutstrongeconomicgrowthandlowerinequality-includinginless-developednations.Conversely,along-runstudysuggestshighinequalityfuelshighpopulationgrowth.116
Surveyingthepast30years,theIMFratedAustraliaandotherrichOECDnations,plusIndiaandChina,asshowing‘largeincreases’inincomeinequality.117WhileMSKeatingisnotinclinedtoputusamongtheworstofnations,heascribeswideninginequalitymoretoa‘hollowingout’inmiddle-leveljobsthantotheavariceofPiketty’stop1percent.118Decryingthefocusontheupperechelons,IPAhasportrayedAustralianincomeandwealthinequalitiesasquitelow.119
Theyears2004-14includethemigrationpushandtheGFC,andduringthisperiodtheOECDsawourhighestincomequintilegainingmorethanthelowest.120Theeffectwasstrongerinwealthterms.Overthedecadefrom2005-16,theABSreckonedthatGiniinequalitiesforhouseholdincomeandwealthhadgoneup,ifonlyatthemargin.121At2015-16,medianhouseholdnetworthforthefirst(lowest)quintilewasunder$50,000,around$500,000forthethird,around$2mforthefifth.
Whilesomemaybaulkattheideathathighimmigrationincreasesinequality,aCBAstudypointstostallingper-capitaincomes,wagestagnation,andhousingunaffordability.122MSKeatingadjudgedthatrealwagesandincomeshaveusuallykeptpacewithproductivity.Butthismighthavechanged,sincethepeakoftheminingboom,andtherearefutureconcernsforequalityofopportunity.Theinfrastructure,service,andhousing,disparitiescreatedbyBigAustraliahavebigimplicationsforinequalityandintergenerationalinequity.DespitethisyoungerAustraliansseemlessinclinedthantheirelderstoperceivemigrationasbeingtoohigh.123
BigAustraliadistortsfutureeconomicconsiderations
Butperhapsequalopportunityisnotyourpriority.Maybeyouprefertofocuson‘dynamism’and‘innovation’.Butitisstilldebatablewhetherourhighpopulationgrowthisagreatforcefortheseeither.
Migrantsandtemporaryworkerscanbringnewvigour,ideas,andskills.Studiesinmanycontextslinkmigrationandinnovation.Butourhighmigrationseemstobedrivenbythegrowthlobby’sbasicdesiresfor(housing)activityand(GDP)growth,morethanaddressinginnovationgaps.Evidenceforthiscanbefoundinlimitationsonventure-capital,entrepreneurshipbarriers,unbalancedinnovationsupport,poorbusiness-researchcollaboration,and(aspertheAIGandNCVERreports)our‘digitalstall’.Challengingoursupposedmulti-factorproductivityslump,Fosteralsoseestheultimatedriversofourfutureproductivitygrowthasbeinginnovationandentrepreneurship.124Inhisview,weshoulddomoreworkonthese,andworrylessabout‘wagecosts’.
Despiteitsfocusonskills,ourhighmigrationisnotnecessarilythemostimaginativemeanstoextendanddiversifyaneconomytraditionallybasedon‘naturalresourcesandservices’.Here,anothernodtoLAandCalifornia,aninnovative,worldtop-teneconomy,with40mpeople,inhighlybio-diversesurroundings.Thislookslikeacaseagainstcarryingcapacityandpopulationbeingaproblem.Butthereremainstark
12
environment,water,wildfire,andpollutionproblems.Therearealsoinfrastructurestruggles,andinequalityishigh.125Theneedfortheirnewbullettraincapturestheheadlines,notanysupposedneedforpopulationgrowth.California’spopulationisgrowingatlessthan1percentayear,asisthatoftheUSasawhole.With4minLACity,and10mintheCountyentire,theLA‘SustainableCitypLAn’focusesonenvironment,economy,andequity–muchlesspopulationgrowth.
LikeAustralia,Californiaishighly‘multicultural’.AsinAustralia,theCaliforniaGreensshyawayfromdirectconsiderationofthepopulationquestion.However,thereisalsoalong-running‘CaliforniansforPopulationStabilization’group.Underlowerpopulationgrowthover2011-16,Californiaappearedtoimplementprogressivemeasuresforworkers’rights,safetynets,taxation,housing,whilemaintainingreasonableemploymentgrowthandgrowthinaggregateGDP.126
TheIMFisnotthefirsttosuggestthatautomationwillbekindertoeconomicgrowthandcapitalthantolabourorequality.127Howwouldour36mAustraliacomparewithCalifornia,Japan,andthemore-equalEuropeannations—allslowgrowinginpopulation?WouldhighpopulationgrowthleadustoEconomicMiracleII,withresearchandinnovation,abroaderpaletteofwinningindustries,companies,andexports,andenvironmentandopportunitysomehowpreserved?Orcouldwenotdobetteroverall,withouttheintenserelianceonaBigAustralia?
Forordinarycitizensatleast,itreallymatters,ifinfrastructureandservicescanever‘catchup’.Here,threeeconomicscribes(Holden,GittinsandVerrender)offerrecentvariationsonthesametheme.128WearasyouwillthekudosofBigAustraliaandtheEconomicMiracle,theyseemtobesaying,butalsoweartheveryrealbudgetaryimplicationsforinfrastructureandservices.
Thefirst(Holden),ifgenerallyfavouringmigration,seesnoautomaticper-capitarevenuebenefit:‘Thefederalbudgetshouldtreatthecostsandbenefitsofimmigrationsymmetrically,anditshouldfocusonthelong-runnottheshort-run.’Theothertwoarelesspro-migration.Buttheyalignwiththefirstasregardsthemarginaleconomicbenefits,andunder-fundedliabilities.
Recall,saysthesecond,carryingcapacity(Gittins).Themiraclefades,addsthethird,ifyoudivideGDPbypopulation(Verrender).Notso,theRBAmightcounter:weoutpacecomparatornationsonrealGDPpercapitagrowth.129ButtheconcernsoverourpopulationgrowtharedeeperthanpercapitaGDP–stretchedcities,strugglingservices,inequality,environmentalprofligacy,andourfutureeconomicbets.
Conclusion:loweringpopulationgrowth
IntheserviceofgrowthinaggregateGDP,national,state,andcityplansareonapopulation-growthtreadmillfordecadesahead.Butthenaturalandurbanenvironmentandtheelectorateareequallyworthyofastrongsay.
‘Lowerpopulationgrowthandlimitedmigration,’saysarecentmeta-analysis,130‘maycontributetoincreasednationalandglobaleconomicinequality.’InAustralia,perhaps,thereversedoesn’tapply.Withtheenvironment‘treadingwater’,thestatesstrugglingtokeepupservices,andelectorswearying,weoughttoreconsiderlowerpopulationtrajectories.
Othertaxandeconomicsettingsremainingsimilar,alessurgentpopulationpolicymightnotbetransformative.Butneitherwoulditbringruin.LowerpopulationgrowthcanmitigateStateoftheEnvironmentpressures.Andgiveusspaceforhonestenvironmentpoliciesthatdon’tsendusbackwards,onemissionsandStateoftheEnvironment.Lowerpopulationgrowthcouldmitigatethechronicinfrastructure,service,andcongestionissues.Andgiveusspaceformoreimaginativeandcreativepolicies,towardfutureprosperityandopportunity.
Shiftsineconomicorenvironmentpoliciescanspringmorefromthepoliticians,ormorefromtheofficials.Here,thesecondavenueisunlikely.Wereweevertochange,mostlikely,thatwouldhaveto
13
comefrompoliticiansatthetop.Somehaverecommendedanationaldebateasastartingpoint,aninquiry,evenaplebiscite.These,too,arenotwithouttheirevidentdrawbacks.
UnlikeAustralia,inNewZealand,votersgotarealchoice.Labourwenttothe2017election,witha30-40percentmigrationcut.Afteryearsofrapidpopulationgrowth,theirplatformruedgapsin‘housing,infrastructure,publicservices,andintraining’.131Their2018budgetoffersGDPgrowth,buttimewillreveal,theextentoftherebalancebetweenpopulationandinfrastructure.132In2017-18,theirnetmigrantgainfellby12percent.Tonote,NZhasFinanceandImmigrationMinisters,ratherthanaso-namedPopulationMinister.
ForanyAustralian‘circuitbreakers’onpopulation,therewouldneverbeanidealtime.Wheneconomicgrowthisflat,thereispressuretoincreasepopulationinordertoboosttheGDP.And,itcanbeargued,topropuphousingactivityandhousingprices.Wheneconomicgrowthisup,asduringtheminingbooms,industrywillpressuregovernmentstoraiseimmigration,tocoverlabourshortages.And,itcanbeargued,tomaskAustralia’sparsimoniouspublicfundingoftraininginessentialskills.
Shortterm,itmaybe,thatthemild‘reduction’inmigrationof2017-18willbepushednofurther.Thatwouldleaveusonveryhighimmigrationlevels.Mediumterm,it’spossible,thattheimbalancesbetweenourcarriedpopulationandourcarrying(orservicing)capacitymighttriggerarealpolicyshift.Ifthatmediumtermwerenow,andreviewingtheprevioussectionsitmaywellbenow,thesemightbeimportantelementsoftheshift.SomeoftheseideasaresimilartothepoliciesoftheSustainableAustraliaParty.133
CappermanentmigrationandreelinNOM
WeoughttoputtheMigrationprogramunderaceiling,ofperhaps80,000-90,000,similarto1990slevels.ThatisnotsoalarmingwhenweconsiderthatthebulkofthecurrentNOMsettlesinSydneyorMelbourne,andrepresentswell-suppliedskillsnotshort-suppliedjobs.BudgetNOMassumptionsrun20-25percentaheadofthemigrationplan.NOM,too,couldbereeledin.
Movetoapopulationpolicyoflessthan1percentgrowthannually
Ifourunusuallyhighpopulationgrowthlevels,andmoreoverthecostsofourpopulationgrowthpolicies,werepublicisedmore,itmightnotbesoeasy,forourprimeministerstoraiseimmigrationnumbersatwill.AsCalwellhadhis2percent,weshouldmovetoaceiling(notatarget)ofratherlessthan1percentgrowth,closertoOECDnorms.Ascomparedwithpresentshares,morewouldcomefromnaturalincrease,lessfromMigrationplustheHumanitarianintake.Withalowergeneralimmigrationceilingwecouldadmitmorehumanitarianmigrants.
Budgetforpopulation’slonger-termcostsasrigorouslyasforitsshorter-termGDPboosts
Evenatlowerlevelsofpopulationgrowth,letusmodifythefederal(andstate)budgetpractices.Asvigorouslyaswebanktheshort-termGDPgainsfrommigrationandpopulationgrowth,weoughttobudgetforthelonger-termservicingimplicationsandcosts.Aspartofthis,agreaterbudgetaryreflectionontrendsinincomeandwealthshareswouldbewelcome.
Realignourpopulationtrajectorywiththeenvironmentalconstraints
Whetherornotunderthenameof‘carryingcapacity’,letusputtheenvironmentalparametersandconstraintsbackintoourpopulationplans.Iftheseweretakenatallseriously,wewouldseetheneedtoredrawour2050(not2030)populationplanmuchcloserto30m.
14
Inthenationalinterest,establishaproperpopulationdirectorate
Briefly,in2010,thethenLaborgovernmenttacked‘Population’ontotheEnvironmentMinistry.In2018,‘Population’hasbeentackedontoa‘Cities,UrbanInfrastructure’Ministry.Butit’sstillbusinessasusual.Expertly,wedocumentourpopulationandimmigrationnumbers,ignoringourpopulationpolicyanditsimplicationsforenvironmentandelectors.Weshouldtrytosetupaholisticpopulationministryandagency,perhapsintheprimeminister’sportfolio.
Controlthetemporaryskillshortageentries
FromMarch2018,twostreamsofTemporarySkillShortage(TSS)replacethe457visas.Oneofthesestreamsstilloffersapathwaytoapermanentvisa.Again,ifweweretolowertheplannedmigrationintake,weshouldbeabletomanagetheTSSnumbers–andtheoverlyingNOMnumbers–withoutcreatingalargeoverhangvis-à-visplannedmigration.
Movebeyondthe‘borderprotection’boasts
Politiciansliketowrapthemselvesinpositiveaspectsoftheimmigrationprogram.Buttheir‘borderprotection’posturesareadistortionofwhoweoughttobe.IfweweretotakegeneralMigrationbacktowardsthehistoricallevels,weshouldatleastmaintainourmodestHumanitarianintakes,andphaseoutthepresentdetentionpractices.TheHumanitarianintake,takenonitsown,currentlyaddsratherlessthan1/10ofonepercenttoourannualpopulationgrowth.
15
References
1K.Betts,ImmigrationandpublicopinioninAustralia:howpublicconcernsabouthighmigrationaresuppressed,TAPRI,2018,p.1
2L.vanOnselen,HowardexplainsthepopulationPonzi,Macrobusiness,31January20143D.Wroe,Migrationintakefallsamidtougherscrutiny,SydneyMorningHerald(SMH),23May20184J.Zubrzycki,ArthurCalwellandtheoriginofpost-warimmigration,BureauofImmigration,MulticulturalandPopulationResearch,1995
5J.PhillipsandJ.Simon-Davies,MigrationtoAustralia:aquickguidetothestatistics,ParliamentaryLibrary,2017
6SeeT.Colebatch,'Citytotop7million,butatwhatcost?',TheAge,23October2009,p.17CommonwealthofAustralia,IntergenerationalReport2010,2010(InfactthethensecretaryofTreasury,KenHenry,spokeoutstronglyagainstthisprojectedgrowth.SeeColebatch,2009,op.cit.)
8J.PhillipsandJ.Simon-Davies,2017,op.cit.9QuotedinM.Coorey,'NewPMGillardrejects'bigAustralia'',AgenceFrancePresse,27June201010CommonwealthofAustralia,SustainableAustraliaSustainableCommunities–ASustainablePopulationStrategyforAustralia,2011
11ABCRadio,TheWorldToday,PMdeclaresneedforskilledmigration,3March2005<http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1315174.htm>
12 NOM(netoverseasmigration)wasintroducedbytheAustralianBureauofStatisticsin1981.From1947to1980thedatafornettotalmigrationcanbeusedasasurrogateforNOM.
13WorldPopulationClock,2018<http://www.worldometers.info/world-population>14D.Carrington,Worldpopulationtohit11bnin2100,GuardianWeekly,26September201415UN,WorldPopulationProspects:The2017Revision,201716UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,SustainableDevelopmentGoals,201517NASAClimate,Graphic:Therelentlessriseofcarbondioxide,201818P.Hannam,Concernslandclearingestimatesinaccurate,SMH,15May201819UnitedNations,WorldPopulationPolicies2013,2013,andthe2015update20K.Betts,Voters’attitudestopopulationgrowthinAustralia,TAPRI,2015a21AustralianAcademyofScience,Australia’spopulation:shapingavisionforourfuture,201222M.Krockenberger,PopulationGrowthinAustralia,TheAustraliaInstitute,2015,p.7;K.Betts,TAPRI,2018,op.cit.;D.Scutt,Australianpopulationgrowthispickingupspeedagain,thankstoimmigration,BusinessInsider,27September2017
23ABS,3101.0-AustralianDemographicStatistics,variousissues24Wikipedia,FamilyplanninginIran,2018https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_planning_in_Iran;S.Tellakat,Thailand:AnExperimentinFamilyPlanning,TheBorgenProject,2015<https://borgenproject.org/family-planning-in-thailand>
16
25CalculatedfromWorldBankdataat<http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG&country=#>
26K.Betts,Thetenuouslinkbetweenpopulationandprosperity,TheConversation,13March2015b27D.Smith,Unplannedgrowthmuststopnow,SMH,28March201828J.Zubrzycki,1995,op.cit.,p.129Inthosedaysthemeasureusedwasnettotalmigration.30J.PhillipsandJ.Simon-Davies,2017,op.cit.31ABCRadio,TheWorldToday,BobCarronincreasedimmigration,6March200032ABCRadio,2005,op.cit.33L.vanOnselen,2014,op.cit.34K.MackiewithS.Saunders,SucceedingandFailinginAustralianEnvironmentPolicy,2018,Section5.4,pp.98-106
35E.Dickinson,GDP:abriefhistory,3January2011,atForeignPolicy.com36R.Gordon,TheRiseandFallofAmericanGrowth,201637D.Coyle,GDP:ABriefbutAffectionateHistory,201438Hon.J.Shaw,Governmentsignalsnewapproachtomeasuringsuccess,14December2017<https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-signals-new-approach-measuring-success>
39G.Banks,Australia’seconomic‘miracle’,ProductivityCommission,speech,2003<https://www.pc.gov.au/news-media/speeches/cs20030801/cs20030801.pdf>
40J.Foster,TheAustraliangrowthmiracle,UniversityofQueensland,201441DepartmentofHomeAffairs,Migrationprogrammestatistics,2018<https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/reports-publications/research-statistics/statistics/live-in-australia/migration-programme>
42ABCNews,WheredoesAustraliarankonitsrefugeeintake?21September201643P.Lowe,DemographicChangeandRecentMonetaryPolicy,RBA,speech,8August201844L.vanOnselen,ImmigrationhasagedAustralia!Macrobusiness,19April201745J.PhillipsandJ.Simon-Davies,2017,op.cit.46B.Birrell,Australia’sskilledmigrationprogram:scarceskillsnotrequired,TAPRI,201847DepartmentofJobsandSmallBusiness,SkillShortageList-Australia,March2018,seeat<https://docs.jobs.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/skillshortagelistaus_8.pdf>
48SeeEconomicAnalysisUnit,DepartmentofImmigrationandBorderProtection,Australia’sMigrationTrends2013–14,2014,table2.1onp.23
49M.Krockenberger,2015,op.cit.,p.1450CommonwealthofAustralia,BudgetPaperNo.3,AppendixA,2018,pp.83-8451A.Clennell,PeterDuttondiscussedmigrationcuts,TheAustralian,14April201852A.Bolt,Abbott:slashimmigration.We’restrugglingtocope,HeraldSun,20February2018
17
53Theaverageoffshorehumanitarianpermanentintakewas15,800from2011-12to2015-16.See<www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/corporate/information/fact-sheets/60refugee>.
54B.Doherty,Unionsandbusinessgroupsunitetoopposecuts,TheGuardian,4May201855K.Betts,TAPRI,2018,op.cit.56R.Gittins,Immigrationreallyacheapandnastywaytogrowtheeconomy,SMH,18March201857Editorial,SMH,28March2018,samedayasD.Smith,above58K.Betts,2018,op.cit.59PlanningInstituteAustralia,Journeytowards50million,201660T.Piketty,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury,201461ABS,4655.0–AustralianEnvironmental-EconomicAccounts,2018,201862HouseofRepresentativesStandingCommitteeforLongTermStrategies,report,1994<https://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/489131>
63AustralianAcademyofSciences,symposium,jointstatement,1994,foundat<https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/09/22-years-still-waiting-population-policy>
64T.Flannery,BiologicalconsiderationsindetermininganoptimumhumanpopulationforAustralia,inAAS,Population2040Australia’schoice,1995,andfoundat<http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.172.8690&rep=rep1&type=pdf>
65Dept.oftheEnvironmentandEnergy,‘Australia,StateoftheEnvironment,Pressures,Overview’,2017<https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/overview/framework/pressures>
66P.Hannam,2018,op.cit.67R.Holton,Immigration,SocialCohesionandNationalIdentity,ParliamentaryLibrary,199768A.Markus,Immigrationandpublicopinion,inA‘Sustainable’Population?KeyPolicyIssues,ProductivityCommission,2011
69M.Krockenberger,2015,op.cit.,p.4;K.Betts,2015a,op.cit.70A.Markus,MappingSocialCohesion2017,201771K.BettsandB.Birrell,Australianvoters’viewsonimmigrationpolicy,TAPRI,201772K.Murphy,Australiansgrowingmoreconcernedovermigration,TheGuardian,24April201873LowyInstitute,2018LowyInstitutePoll,201874B.Doherty,2018,op.cit.,see‘Toptencountries’graphicatend75K.Betts,TAPRI,2018,op.cit.76P.Lowe,2018,op.cit.;N.Reece,WhyabigOzisbest,TheAge,12August2018;P.Hartcher,Planorperish:managementcansolvepopulationanxiety,SMH,11August2018.ForresearchpointingtothelimitedeffectofimmigrationondemographicageingseeProductivityCommission,MigrantIntakeintoAustralia:ProductivityCommissionInquiryReportNo.77,13April2016,2016,p.363;ProductivityCommission,Populationandmigration:understandingthenumbers,ProductivityCommission,Melbourne,2010(December),p.63;J.BrownandO.M.Hartwich,PopulateandPerish,ModellingAustralia’sDemographicFuture,CentreforIndependentStudies,2010mp.14;K.Betts,TheageingoftheAustralianpopulation:triumphordisaster?,CentreforPopulationandUrbanResearch,MonashUniversity,2014,pp.21-27<tapri.org.au>
18
77GreaterSydneyCommission,AMetropolisofThreeCities,2018;VictoriaStateGovernment,PlanMelbourne2017-2050,2017
78WAPlanning,Lands&HeritageandWAPlanningCommission,PerthandPeel@3.5million,201879BrisbaneCityCouncil,BrisbaneVision2031,201380LucyTurnbullisChiefCommissioneroftheGreaterSydneyCommission<www.greater.sydney/commissioners-chief-commissioner>.
81SeeR.Morton,'VETrorts'fedboguschildcareboom'',TheAustralian,6October2016,pp.1,4;J.HareandB.Lane,'Criminalownersanewconcern',TheAustralian,6July2011,p.25;G.Healy,'Privatecollegenumberssoardespiteregulators'crackdown',TheAustralian,24February2010,p.23;M.Clayfield,'Studentslefthighanddry-Collegecollapseputsvisasatrisk',TheAustralian,29July2009,p.2;B.Birrell,E.HealyandB.Kinnaird,'Thecooking-immigrationnexus',PeopleandPlace,2009,vol.17,no.1,pp.63-75<tapri.org.au>
82Thiswasaschemetoprovidevocationaleducationandtraining(VET)studentswithdeferredloansfortheirstudies.Someprivatecollegestoutedfordisadvantagedstudents,gavetheminadequatetrainingwhichmostcouldnotcompleteandleftthem(orthetaxpayer)withaheavyloadofdebt.SeeT.Dodd,'Hasthegovernmentlearntfromthisdisaster?',TheAustralianFinancialReview,5October2016,p.4.
83M.McGowan,Vocationaleducationfundingatlowestlevelinadecade,TheGuardian,13December2017
84M.Lilly,ThefutureofAustralianapprenticeships,AIG,201685P.Loveder,Australianapprenticeships:trends,challenges,andfutureopportunitiesfordealingwithIndustry4.0,NCVER,2017
86A.Tudge,DoorstopInterviewatMelbourneCPO,7August201887D.Scutt,Here’swhat’sdrivingpopulationgrowthacrossAustralia,BusinessInsider,14May201888DepartmentofEducation,QualitySchoolsfrequentlyaskedquestions,201889Whilethatisthegeneralgovernmentposition,itistobenoted,thatindividualprivateschoolsmaygetmuchlessthan80percentofSRS.
90C.Dovey,Schoolyardcrush:whySydney’sschoolsaresoovercrowded,TheMonthly,Feb.2015;H.Cook,Record1mstudentstosqueezeintoVictorianschools,TheAge,10October2016
91QueenslandGovernment,Firstnewstatehighschoolstobebuiltininner-cityBrisbanesince1963,JointStatement,8June2017
92OECD,Privateschools:whobenefits,PISAinfocus,201193 SeeWhatistheSchoolingResourceStandardandhowdoesitwork?<https://www.education.gov.au/what-schooling-resource-standard-and-how-does-it-work>
94C.BonnorandB.Shepherd,PrivateSchool,PublicCost,NSWTF,2015;J.CaroandL.Connors,FairnessnowGonski,TheSaturdayPaper,12May2018
95P.Singhal,UNagencyranksAustralia39/41countriesforqualityeducation,SMH,16June201796K.Gair,Secondbestintheworldisnoguaranteeofanequitablehealthcare,SMH,16July201797M.WadeandN.Gladstone,Sydney’scongestionattippingpoint,SMH,21May201898P.MeesandL.Groenhart,TransportPolicyattheCrossroads,RMIT,2012
19
99BureauofInfrastructure,TransportandRegionalEconomics,Urbanpublictransport:updatedtrends,2014,p.5100A.Burrell,$1bndesalpressuregrowsasrainsfail,TheAustralian,19June2017101WAWaterCorp,Streamflowhistorical,2018<https://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply/rainfall-and-dams/streamflow/streamflowhistorical>
102T.Hughes-D’Aeth,WritingtheWAwheatbelt,aplaceofradicalenvironmentalchange,TheConversation,18May2017
103H.Lambers(ed.),PlantlifeonthesandplainsinsouthwestAustralia,2014,p.42andsoon104D.Chau,Australianproperty‘severelyunaffordable’,ABCNews,23January2018;K.Burke,Australiarankedthirdleastaffordablecountryforhousing,Domain,2January2018
105D.Scutt,2018,op.cit.106J.Daley,B.CoatesandT.Wiltshire,GrattanInstitute,Howmigrationaffectshousingaffordability,TheConversation,5March2018
107B.PhillipsandC.Joseph,RegionalhousingsupplyanddemandinAustralia,ANUCentreforSocialResearchandMethods,2017
108SBSNews,MigrationtofuelageingAustralia:report,2March2017109R.KendallandP.Tulip,Theeffectofzoningonhouseprices,RBA,2018110B.BirrellandE.Healy,ImmigrationandtheHousingAffordabilityCrisisinSydneyandMelbourne,TAPRI,2018
111M.ThomasandA.Hall,HousingaffordabilityinAustralia,ParliamentaryLibrary,2016112K.Burke,2018,op.cit.113ThePopulationReferenceBureaulistsAustralia’spopulationas86percenturbaninmid2018.See<http://www.worldpopdata.org/table>.
114AustralianGovernment,OurNorth,OurFuture,2015115D.DingwallandM.Mannheim,WhereinAustraliaarethefederalpublicservants,CanberraTimes,2August2018
116EconomicHistorySociety,Inequalityfuelspopulationgrowth,release,30March2016117G.Hutchens,IMFsaysAustraliahasoneofthefastestrisingincomeinequalityrates,TheGuardian,12October2017
118M.Keating,Inequality,wagesandeconomicgrowth,9January2018at<johnmenadue.com>119D.WildandA.Bushnell,UnderstandinginequalityinAustralia,IPA,2017120OECD,OECDEconomicSurveys:AustraliaMarch2017Overview,2017121ABS,6523.0–HouseholdIncomeandWealth,Australia,2015-16,2017122M.Janda,PopulationgrowthmaskingAustralia’seconomicweakness,ABCNews,12July2017123A.Markus,2017,op.cit.,p.50;K.BettsandB.Birrell,2017,op.cit.,p.12124J.Foster,TheAustralianmulti-factorproductivitygrowthillusion,UniversityofQueensland,2014125V.D.Hanson,IsCaliforniacrackingup?WashingtonTimes,9August2017126I.Perry,CaliforniaisWorking,UCBerkeleyLaborCenter,14November2017
20
127A.Berget.al.,ShouldWeFeartheRobotRevolution?(TheCorrectAnswerisYes),IMF,2018128R.Holden,Obsessionwithshort-termburiesthebad–andeventhegood,AFR,4May2018;R.Gittins,2018,op.cit.;I.Verrender,ImmigrantsadvanceAustralianeconomy,butwhathappensifwe‘closethedoor?’ABCNews,24April2017
129G.Stevens,Theeconomicscene,AddresstoCEDA,RBA,3September2014<https://www.bis.org/review/r140903e.pdf>
130E.W.F.Peterson,TheRoleofPopulationinEconomicGrowth,SAGEOpen,2017131NewZealandLabour,MakingimmigrationworkforNewZealand,2016132NewsroomNZ,Budget2018:Govthalves5-yearKiwiBuildtargets,17May2018133See<https://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au/>.
top related