weekly market update 11-10-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa11-10-16.pdf · 13 open positions...

1

Weekly Market Update 11-10-16

©2016·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.

Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

3

1

DonaldTrumpwillbethenextPresidentoftheUnitedStates.Youpaymeforanalysis,soIwanttostressthateverythingIamabouttowritetoyouisnottobeconsideredanendorsementorreflectingmypersonalviews.Thisisstrictlyanalysis.TrumpwillbePresidentandweneedtointegratethatintoourforecasts.Thebigissuestonoteare:

1) Trumpisinheritingarecessionaswellasadebtcrisis.2) $USDSHOULDbeplungingasriskassetsignite

Regarding#1,asI’venotedpreviouslytheUSisonthevergeof,ifnotalreadyinarecession.Thedatathathasnotbeenmassagedforpoliticalpurposesisclearhere.Onthatnote,Iexpectaspatofterribleeconomicdatatobeunleashedinthecomingweeks.TheObamaadministrationhastakenaccountinggimmickstolevelsbeyondanythingClintonorW.Bushaspiredto.Thenarrativeofarecoverywillbeunravelinginthecomingmonthsasthebean-countersrevisetheirmodelsaspoliticalpressureisreduced.SoIfullyexpecttoseethedatabegintoplungeshortly.Andwewilllikelyhavearecessionannouncedthistimenextyear.Moreover,theUSisnowsportingaDebttoGDPratioof105%.ThisisaGREECElevelofdebtsaturation.HowTrumpwillworkwiththisIhavenoidea.HehasemphasizedreturningtheUStogrowth,buttherealityisthatinflationislikelytheonlyrealoption.Themarketshavesmelledthis.InflationexpectationsERUPTEDhigheryesterday.

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 11-10-16

4

2

Moreover,bondssoldoffaggressively(yetmoreevidenceofacominginflationaryspike).Globallybondinvestorslost$1trillionyesterday.

5

3

Remember,thebondbubbleisTHEsinglelargestissuetobeconcernedwith.Thebondbubbleisbiggerthananythinginthehistoryofbubbles.Weallknowhowitwillend(disaster).Howwegettherewillremaintobeseen.Fornow,itappearsthebondmarketisattemptingtobottom.TheinitialshockofaTrumppresidencyisnowbeingdigested.Butweneedtoholdhere.Thelong-termbondETF(TLT)isWAYoutsideitsBollingerbands.ThisisBEYONDoversold.Weneedtoseeasharprallyheresoon.

6

4

DittoforshortertermTreasuries(UST).

7

5

AswellasEmergingMarketBonds(EMB).

Alloftheabovechartsaretellingusaninflationaryshockhasjusthit.Similarly,Copperhasgoneparabolicbreakingoutofits7-yearbullishfallingwedgepattern.

8

6

Thissuggestscopperat$3.00isinthecards.Oilistryingtofigureoutwhichismoresignificant…inflationoranincreaseinUSoilproductionviaTrump’senergyproposals.ThislineNEEDStoholdhere.

9

7

ThesameistrueforGoldregardingtrendlines.Remember,thisasseteasilymoves1%+perdaysovolatilityisexpected.Butweneedareversalheresoon.

10

8

Indeed,Silverisshootingthroughtheroof.Duringperiodsofheightenedinflation,SilveroutperformsGold.Thisappearstobethecase.

Theoneitemthatgivesmepauseisthespikeinthe$USD.The$USDistestingtheuppertrendlineofitsdownwardtradingchannel.ThisNEEDStoreverseNOWandstartcrashingdowntothelowertrendline.

11

9

Iftheabovesoundsconflicting,letmegiveyouananalogy.Ifyou’reeverbeenpunchedbysomeone,orhityourhead,youknowtheinitialshockleadstobeingflusteredanddazed.Duringthisperiodyourbodyflailsaroundabitasyoutrytoorientyourselfandgetyourfeetbeneathyouagain.Thisisthestatusofthefinancialmarketstoday.Bonds,Silver,andstocksareallSCREAMING“inflation.”Oil,GoldandtheUSDollararesignalingaflighttosafety/deflation.Mycurrentshort-termviewisasfollows:IbelievethatOilandGoldaresellingoffashedgefundsreposition(hedgieswereHUGELYoverexposedtotheseassetclasses).The$USDisrampingbasedonaflighttosafetyfromthesell-offinbonds.Ibelievethiswillreversebeforethemiddleofnextweek.Long-term,Ibelievethe$USDisabouttoreverseandcollapsetobelow90.Thisbondplungeisoverdone.Inflationiscreepingupinnumerousdatasets.Copper,thesmartestcommodityon

12

10

theplanetissignalingthistoo.However,thewisethingtodorightthissecondiswatchandwait.Themarketsaretryingtosortoutwhatishappening.TheSMARTmoneyisseeinginflationbutwehaveyettogetfullconfirmationsfromthe$USD.Thereissimplynoreasontotakeactiontoday,particularlywiththeweekendahead.ButweneedtoseeGoldreboundearlynextweekalongwithOil.Oncethathappens,thepathforthemarketsisclear.I’vegotaloadofnewtradesI’mitchingtohaveusopen.ButIwantconfirmationofwhatI’mseeingfirst.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourusualweeklymarketupdate.Untilthen…

ChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

13

OPEN POSITIONS

STOCKS PORTFOLIO POSITION SYMBOL BUY

DATE BUY

PRICE CURRENT

PRICE GAIN/ LOSS

Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $87.34 -3% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $10.44 -33%

Conoco-Phillips COP 11/2/16 $43.46 $44.79 3%

Schlumberger SLB 11/2/16 $77.93 $80.06 3%

Chevron CVX 11/2/16 $105.53 $107.72 2%

Apache APA 11/2/16 $58.46 $57.94 -1%

ChinaETF ASHR 11/7/16 $24.80 $24.76 0%

Gerdau GGB 11/7/16 $3.36 $3.77 12%

CopperMiners COPX 11/7/16 $17.90 $20.84 16%

BONDS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NVG 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.55 30%

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon11/10/16at11:30AMPriceincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97

14

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,266.00 13% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $18.58 14%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $11.95 -23%

GoldMinersETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $23.46 3% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 10/5/16 $37.52 $38.87

4%

SilverWheaton SLW 10/5/16 $22.59 $21.13 -6% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 $11.38

10%

BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 $15.99 3%

NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $4.19 8%

NaturalGasTrust UNG 10/5/16 $8.71 $6.98 -20%

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon11/10/16at11:30AM

15

SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $4.13 $4.77 -15% Barclays(SHORT) BCS 7/5/16 $7.92 $10.03 -27% FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $23.80 -2% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $10.78 $22.04 -2% Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $484.19 $741.00 -53% AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 $17.55 -14%

*Averagepriceof$385.37and$583Pricesasofmarket’scloseon11/10/16at11:30AMPriceincludedividends

CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 $105.73 -3%