war and democracy - igos

Inter-GovernmentalOrganisation

(IGO)

ANABELLE NG | ANG DE RONG | DAVID ARDIANSYAH | NGUYEN NHI ANH TRI | NICOLE KUEK

ARTICLE 1

The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett

ARTICLE 2

Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace? Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom

ARTICLE 3

Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet

October

201331

October

179531

…Zum ewigen Frieden

ARTICLE 1

The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett

…the world has been at peace for the past half-century.

What factor causes it?

…Realistvs Liberal (Kantian)

at dyadic and systemic level.

Numerous research….

…consensus on Democratic Peace theory

LESS… on economic interdependence and IGOs’

Conceptual Synthesis of Realist and Liberalist Theories Extension of Temporal Domain on Trade and IGOs

Address Realist theory about Hegemons and Kantian Systemic Influences

….to provide empirical support for the theory

…Kantian Systemic Influences

Democracy…

Economic Interdependence…

Joint Membership in IGO

….decrease dispute

Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman

Cross sectional time series with

logistic regression

dyad year 1885-1992 all dyads globally

Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables

MID Involvement

Democracy

Economic Interdependence

Joint IGOs membership

Capability Ratio

Alliance

Contiguity

Distance

Major Powers

Joint membership only significant when….

Strong and statistically significant support for

Democracy and Economic Interdependence.

considering relative system measure and between

politically relevant dyads.

ARTICLE 2

Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace?

Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom

IGOs…

…increase the probability of conflict, ?

What are the effects of… on peace?

IGOs

Impact of IGOs are debatable and its efficacy contradictory

IGOs seem to have a non-uniform effect on state behaviour

Lack of explanation as to how IGOs influence dispute behaviour

Bargaining

Theory

an increase in…

institutionalisation…

member cohesion…

security mandate

….decrease dispute

membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs

Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman

Logistic

regression BTSCS

temporal range

non-directed

dyad year1950-1991 all dyads

Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables

Involvement or

Onset

Joint IGO, IGO Mandate

Floor Member Contention

Major Power Contention

Difference in Floor-Major

Power Contention

Diplomatics Missions Low

Democracy Low

Interdependence Low

Allies

Major Power Dyad

Capability Ratio

Contiguity

Distance

membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs

an increase in…

institutionalisation…

….not supported

an increase in…

member cohesion…

security mandate

….decrease dispute

with security mandate…

Only interventionist (highly institutionalised) IGOs…

significantly reduce interstate conflict.

ARTICLE 3

Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace

Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet

link between…

IGO and peace is not robust

Type of IGO…

that promotes peace

socialisation

Credible commitment

dispute settlement

a revised interpretation that emphasises the benefits of particular

types of IGOs so as to address conflicting prior research

…increased in membership of

democratic IGO promote peace

Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman

Logistic

regression dyad year 1885-2000 all dyads

Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables

Fatal MID Democratic IGO

Democracy

Economic Interdependence

Contiguity

Distance

Major Power

Cumulative MIDS

Joint IGO

π

the more joint memberships in IGOs composed of democracies,

will engage in fatal MIDs.

the less likely it is that states in a dyad

(both democratic and non democratic)

Link…

Research Design

Article 1 Article 2 Article 3

CAPRATIO, DEML, DEPENDL, ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS,

CONTIGUITY, DISTANCE exclude ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS and CAPRATIO

META questions?

Heuristics

Empirical support

Predictions and Extrapolation

Falsifiability

Relative correlation

‘+’

threat to Internal validity

anomalies

reverse causality

Isolation of factorsTweaking

Qualitative vs quantitative

‘-’

“It’s democratic IGOs, stupid!”- U.S. President

…danke