war and democracy - igos
DESCRIPTION
Assessing the effect of Inter-governmental organisations in promoting world peaceTRANSCRIPT
Inter-GovernmentalOrganisation
(IGO)
ANABELLE NG | ANG DE RONG | DAVID ARDIANSYAH | NGUYEN NHI ANH TRI | NICOLE KUEK
ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace? Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom
ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet
October
201331
October
179531
…Zum ewigen Frieden
ARTICLE 1
The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885-1992 John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
…the world has been at peace for the past half-century.
What factor causes it?
…Realistvs Liberal (Kantian)
at dyadic and systemic level.
Numerous research….
…consensus on Democratic Peace theory
LESS… on economic interdependence and IGOs’
Conceptual Synthesis of Realist and Liberalist Theories Extension of Temporal Domain on Trade and IGOs
Address Realist theory about Hegemons and Kantian Systemic Influences
….to provide empirical support for the theory
…Kantian Systemic Influences
Democracy…
Economic Interdependence…
Joint Membership in IGO
….decrease dispute
Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Cross sectional time series with
logistic regression
dyad year 1885-1992 all dyads globally
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
MID Involvement
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Joint IGOs membership
Capability Ratio
Alliance
Contiguity
Distance
Major Powers
Joint membership only significant when….
Strong and statistically significant support for
Democracy and Economic Interdependence.
considering relative system measure and between
politically relevant dyads.
ARTICLE 2
Do Intergovernmental Organisation Promote Peace?
Charles Boehmer, Erik Gartzke and Timothy Nordstrom
IGOs…
…increase the probability of conflict, ?
What are the effects of… on peace?
IGOs
Impact of IGOs are debatable and its efficacy contradictory
IGOs seem to have a non-uniform effect on state behaviour
Lack of explanation as to how IGOs influence dispute behaviour
Bargaining
Theory
an increase in…
institutionalisation…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease dispute
membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs
Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Logistic
regression BTSCS
temporal range
non-directed
dyad year1950-1991 all dyads
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
Involvement or
Onset
Joint IGO, IGO Mandate
Floor Member Contention
Major Power Contention
Difference in Floor-Major
Power Contention
Diplomatics Missions Low
Democracy Low
Interdependence Low
Allies
Major Power Dyad
Capability Ratio
Contiguity
Distance
membership alone does not affect the probability of MIDs
an increase in…
institutionalisation…
….not supported
an increase in…
member cohesion…
security mandate
….decrease dispute
with security mandate…
Only interventionist (highly institutionalised) IGOs…
significantly reduce interstate conflict.
ARTICLE 3
Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace
Jon Pevehouse and Bruce Russet
link between…
IGO and peace is not robust
Type of IGO…
that promotes peace
socialisation
Credible commitment
dispute settlement
a revised interpretation that emphasises the benefits of particular
types of IGOs so as to address conflicting prior research
…increased in membership of
democratic IGO promote peace
Technique Unit of Analysis Temporal Range Spatial Doman
Logistic
regression dyad year 1885-2000 all dyads
Dependent Variable Independent Variables Control Variables
Fatal MID Democratic IGO
Democracy
Economic Interdependence
Contiguity
Distance
Major Power
Cumulative MIDS
Joint IGO
π
the more joint memberships in IGOs composed of democracies,
will engage in fatal MIDs.
the less likely it is that states in a dyad
(both democratic and non democratic)
Link…
Research Design
Article 1 Article 2 Article 3
CAPRATIO, DEML, DEPENDL, ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS,
CONTIGUITY, DISTANCE exclude ALLIES, MAJOR PWRS and CAPRATIO
META questions?
Heuristics
Empirical support
Predictions and Extrapolation
Falsifiability
Relative correlation
‘+’
threat to Internal validity
anomalies
reverse causality
Isolation of factorsTweaking
Qualitative vs quantitative
‘-’
“It’s democratic IGOs, stupid!”- U.S. President
…danke