using data to play (and forecast) the future - play the future - strata data conference nyc 2017
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Parisa Foster, Co-founder Play The Future
Using data to play (and forecast) the future
Friday, 6 October, 17
Friday, 6 October, 17
Buzzword warning: “wisdom of the crowd”
Friday, 6 October, 17
The Good Judgement Project
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Friday, 6 October, 17
Friday, 6 October, 17
!
Friday, 6 October, 17
Play The Future: turning big data into entertainment
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Friday, 6 October, 17
If it can be measured, it can be played
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What makes a good prediction?
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InformativeSpecific
Context
Data
Entertaining
Dissecting a “good” predictive question
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Can we accurately predict the future?
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Numerical input Slider input
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Accuracy points based on accuracy percentage
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The initial calculation for numerical....and its problems
|outcome value - predicted value|% accuracy = 100% - x 100%
outcome value
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The revised calculation for numerical input
|outcome value - predicted value|% accuracy = 100% - x 100%
range max - range min
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Slider: based on position...much simpler!
Position % accuracy
1 100
2 0
For 2 choices:
Position % accuracy
1 100
2 85.7
3 71.4
4 57.1
5 42.9
6 28.6
7 14.3
8 0
For 8 choices:
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So....can we accurately predict the future?
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68.7%
75.7%
80.4% 80.8%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. Dr. Tim Chartier SuperFuturists
March Madness prediction tournament: accuracy
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Results Dr. Tim Chartier’s Research Team
Tournament Winner Angela O.
Which team will win the NCAA Men’s Division Tournament? North Carolina Gonzaga Gonzaga
How many total points will be scored in the final NCAA Tournament game?
136 132 130
In the final tournament game, how many points will the highest scoring player score?
22 22 22
In MM:SS, how long will the NCAA.com video of Saturday’s Dunks of the Day be?
00:56 1:03 1:03
At 13:00 ET on Saturday, what % of people on NCAA.com will think Oregon will win vs. NC?
58% 46% 47%
In °F, what will the temperature be in Phoenix, AZ at 11ET on Sunday?
57° 67° 67°
What will the point difference be at the end of the year’s NCAA championship game?
6 6 6
How many combined Twitter followers will this year’s NCAA finalists have at 11 ET, Sunday?
702,756 689,999 690,000
Who will be named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player?
Other (Joel Berry II) Nigel Williams-Goss Nigel Williams-Goss
In MM:SS, what will the time on the clock be when the last 3-pointer is scored?
17:34 16:45 16:45
How many total steals & blocks will Monday’s NCAA Championship winner have?
15 12 12
What will the difference in field goals made be between the winners of each semifinal game?
4 5 5
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“Usually, the person who wins the whole thing won’t be an expert. Why? Experts will go with the best odds on many
items and life involves both odds but then luck. If you have thousands or even hundreds of entries, often someone who
has randomness can win. Why? They have some skill, as they have to, but they capture the randomness through luck
on their own. There is skill though in knowing how much luck to integrate—unless you just got exceedingly lucky!”
Dr. Tim Chartier
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43.7%
86.4%
70.1%
95.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. Ben Zauzmer SuperFuturists
Tony Awards prediction tournament: accuracy
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64.9%
79.8%
91.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Futurists Avg. Futurists Med. SuperFuturists
Oikos branded predictions: accuracy
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What differentiates the “SuperFuturists”?
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Gut feeling
Statistical models
Calculator
Ask/collaborate with a friend
Expert's prediction (when available)
Online research
Second hint
First hint
SuperFuturists
Futurists
Tools or methods used to accurately predict
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Is prediction a skill learned over time?
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70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
1
48
95
142
189
236
283
330
377
424
471
518
565
612
659
706
753
800
847
894
941
988
1035
1082
1129
1176
1223
1270
1317
1364
1411
1458
1505
1552
1599
1646
1693
1740
1787
1834
1881
1928
1975
2022
2069
2116
2163
2210
2257
2304
2351
2398
2445
2492
2539
2586
2633
2680
2727
2774
2821
2868
2915
2962
3009
3056
3103
3150
3197
3244
3291
3338
3385
3432
3479
3526
3573
3620
3667
3714
3761
3808
3855
3902
3949
3996
4043
4090
4137
4184
4231
4278
4325
4372
4419
4466
4513
4560
4607
4654
4701
4748
4795
4842
4889
4936
4983
5030
5077
5124
5171
5218
5265
The avg. of SuperFuturists’ accuracy increases over time
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70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
1
48
95
142
189
236
283
330
377
424
471
518
565
612
659
706
753
800
847
894
941
988
1035
1082
1129
1176
1223
1270
1317
1364
1411
1458
1505
1552
1599
1646
1693
1740
1787
1834
1881
1928
1975
2022
2069
2116
2163
2210
2257
2304
2351
2398
2445
2492
2539
2586
2633
2680
2727
2774
2821
2868
2915
2962
3009
3056
3103
3150
3197
3244
3291
3338
3385
3432
3479
3526
3573
3620
3667
3714
3761
3808
3855
3902
3949
3996
4043
4090
4137
4184
4231
4278
4325
4372
4419
4466
4513
4560
4607
4654
4701
4748
4795
4842
4889
4936
4983
5030
5077
5124
5171
5218
5265
Erratic beginning followed by steady increase over time
70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
300thavg:80%
600thavg:81%
2500thavg:82%
4000thavg:83%
First 20 predictions
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60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
1 8 15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
78
85
92
99
106
113
120
127
134
141
148
155
162
169
176
183
190
197
204
211
218
225
232
239
246
253
260
267
274
281
288
295
302
309
316
323
330
337
344
351
358
365
372
379
386
393
400
407
414
421
428
435
442
449
456
463
470
477
484
491
498
505
512
519
526
533
540
547
554
561
568
575
582
589
596
603
610
617
624
631
638
645
652
659
666
673
680
687
694
701
708
715
722
729
736
743
750
757
764
771
778
785
792
799
806
813
820
827
834
841
848
855
862
869
876
883
890
897
904
911
918
925
932
939
946
953
960
967
974
981
988
995
Similar trend applies to regular Futurists...
20thavg:68%
100thavg:70%
250thavg:72%
500thavg:73%
750thavg:74%
1000thavg:75%
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To conclude...
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If it can be measured, it can be played
The crowd isn’t wise; but a select group are
Practice makes (almost) perfect
We predict you’ll remember:
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Friday, 6 October, 17
parisa@playthefuture.com
Let’s predict the future by playing it!
Friday, 6 October, 17
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