unlocking the potential of fuel to improve transport ... amer ffw... · unlocking the potential of...

Unlocking the Potential of Fuel to

Improve Transport Efficiency

Amer A. Amer, Fuel Chief Technologist

Saudi Aramco R&DC

KAUST Future Fuels Workshop, 7-9 March 2016

Saudi Aramco: Company General Use

• Saudi Aramco, R&DC Fuel Technology Overview

• Global Petroleum Supply and Demand

• Transport Challenges and Opportunities

• Fuel Technology Research Portfolio

• Final Thoughts

• Way Forward

Outline

Saudi Aramco – Fully Integrated Energy Enterprise

260.2billionbarrels oil reserves

284.8trillionscf gas reserves

1 in 8 barrels of the world’s total crude oil production

4.5millionbpd global refining capacity

2012 Numbers

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Billion Barrels

Trillion Barrels

Proven Reserves R/P Ratio

Annual Production

Global Petroleum Demand and Supply Projections

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Millions

Historic Projections

Non-OECD

* Growth primarily in Asia

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy

Outlook 2014, DOE/EIA – 0484(2014), September 9,2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy

Outlook 2014, DOE/EIA – 0484(2014), September 9,2014.

U.S. Geological Survey World Conventional Resources Assessment Team,

2013, Supporting data for the U.S. Geological Survey 2012 world

assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources: U.S. Geological

Survey Digital Data Series DDS–69–FF, various pages,

http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-ff/.

World Oil Demand Oil Production and Reserves

Petroleum demand will grow (mostly in non-OECD countries) and will not be

constrained by supply

Research & Development Center

Downstream Domains – Maximizing ValueStrategic Domains

Sustainability

Transport Fuel Technology: Holistic approach to innovation

- Promote the development and adoption of cost-effective and sustainable

oil-based transport solutions

- Early concept prove-out to technology demonstration and stakeholder

engagement

System Approach

to Reducing GHGs

Transport Fuel Technology: Holistic approach to innovation

- Promote the development and adoption of cost-effective and sustainable

oil-based transport solutions

- Early concept prove-out to technology demonstration and stakeholder

engagement

Center was inaugurated in March 2013

2,798 ft2 office space

Research facility - 10-year collaboration with IFPen

Fuel/engine matching programs leading to vehicle

demonstrators (Advanced CI and SI engines)

Global Footprint and Network – Major Enabler

PhD45%

Center was inaugurated in October 2015

50,000 ft² lab and office space

Proximity to auto manufacturers and technology providers

Technology integration (LDV and HDV)

Strategic transport analysis

Other20%

MSc30%

PhD42%

Aramco Fuel Research Center - Paris Aramco Research Centers – Detroit

• Around 60% of oil goes to transport

• Around 90% of transport energy is from

• Over 1.1 billion passenger cars and 255

million commercial vehicles

• Over 4.5 billion liters each of gasoline &

diesel and 1 billion liters of jet fuel

each day

• Alternatives will play a role but cannot

grow without restraint or fast enough to

take a significant share of transport

energy

Improving transport efficiency using oil-

based fuel is essential

Co-development of fuel/engine systems

Transportation continues to be heavily reliant on oil

OECD Europe

OECD Asia

OECD America

Non-OECD

Sources: Intl. Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2013 - Current Policies Scenario; World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios Jazz Scenario (Freeway); U.S. Energy Information Agency, Intl. Energy Outlook 2013 - Reference case

2010 2020 2035

International Energy AgencyWorld Energy CouncilU.S. Energy Information Agency

• Transport accounts for 14.0% of global GHG emissions

- Third after power generation and industrial processes AND

comparable to agricultural byproducts

• Stringent targets for Low Carbon Vehicles (LCV)

• More Diesel and Jet fuel demand and higher

octane requirement to meet LCV target

Challenges: GHG Reduction and CO2 abatement mandates

Source: http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/improving-conversions-between-passenger-vehicle-efficiency-standards, 2014

• Driving complex and costly engine

systems and after treatment

requirements for Diesel road transport

- Diesel engines are inherently more

efficient than gasoline engines

• Driving drastic choices for marine

transport

- Fuel switch from Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) to

LS Diesel in Emission Controlled Areas

- HFO desulphurization

- On-board scrubbing systems

• Knock is much more challenging in

bigger/slower engines, hence no

alternative to compression ignition in

commercial transport

Challenges: Increasingly stringent emission standards

• Diesel demand to meet emissions

• Despite massive growth in personal vehicles, energy demand for this sector will not

grow proportionately, due to

- Larger scope for efficiency improvement

- Shorter driving distances, hybridization, and smaller cars

• Global transportation demand growth is mostly driven by commercial vehicles

Challenges: Disparity in transport sector growth

Source: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil, 2016

• Despite massive growth in personal vehicles, energy demand for this sector will not

grow proportionately, due to

- Larger scope for efficiency improvement

- Shorter driving distances, hybridization, and smaller cars

• Global transportation demand growth is mostly driven by commercial vehicles

Challenges: Disparity in transport sector growth

Source: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, ExxonMobil, 2016

• More Diesel demand to meet growth

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

J+D/G RatioEJ / year

World Energy Council - Freeway Scenario

Gasoline Jetfuels Diesel J+D/G Ratio

Stringent Emissions

GHG and CO2 Mandates

Growth Disparity

Challenges: Demand imbalance consequence

• Impact on the Oil Industry

- Around $30 Billion CapEx projects to increase capacities of EU refinery units that

boost distillate production AND significant capacity reductions in units that boost

gasoline production1

- $100s of Billions industry-wide AND surplus in “low Octane gasoline”

Sources: http://www.ngk.co.jp/english/news/2008/0611.html and www.theicct.org/info/documents/PVstds_update_apr2010.pdf1 CONCAWE 2013 report # 1/13R “Oil refining in the EU in 2020, with perspectives to 2030” For the 2009-2015 period

Stringent Emissions

GHG and CO2 Mandates

Growth Disparity

Challenges: Demand imbalance consequence

• Impact on the Oil Industry

- Around $30 Billion CapEx projects to increase capacities of EU refinery units that

boost distillate production AND significant capacity reductions in units that boost

gasoline production1

- $100s of Billions industry-wide AND surplus in “low Octane gasoline”

Sources: http://www.ngk.co.jp/english/news/2008/0611.html and www.theicct.org/info/documents/PVstds_update_apr2010.pdf1 CONCAWE 2013 report # 1/13R “Oil refining in the EU in 2020, with perspectives to 2030” For the 2009-2015 period

• Implications

- More diesel and jet fuel needed compared to gasoline AND increase in octane of gasoline pool

“Homeless Hydrocarbons” negatively impacting refinery sustainability

• Potential Solutions

- More hydroprocessing to satisfy increased demand for middle distillates - Expensive

- Increased adoption of LNG or CNG for heavy duty applications

• constrained by availability, energy density, and infrastructure

- More octane boosting to supply higher octane gasoline (>98 RON)

• cannot grow without restraint or fast enough

• only relevant to LDVs

- Develop efficient and clean compression ignition technology which can use easily manufactured

low Octane/low Cetane fuels (aka GCI)

• given the negative sentiment surrounding the Diesel fuel, a new fuel can reestablish the compression ignition

technology as a viable pathway to improve the efficiency of internal combustion engine

• compression ignition is the right technology with the “wrong” fuel

- Develop a technology that can reduce engine average Octane requirement

Implications and solutions

Two competitive technologies to address the challenges

Low Octane Gasoline

Fuel/Engine Matching

New Engine Concept

Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) Technology OverviewLow NOx and Low Particulates

• Control of particulates and NOx much easier with

fuels with high ignition delay - “Gasoline-like”

• Inject low-octane gasoline in a “diesel” engine

much earlier in the cycle compared to diesel fuel

• Higher ignition delay allows more time for mixing

before combustion

• In–cycle control of combustion phasing by injection

timing as in a diesel engine

tillati

Hydrotreating

Isomerization

Alkylation

Catalytic Reforming

Octane Boosting

“Homeless H/Cs”

• Higher efficiency compared to gasoline engines

• Lower cost compared to diesel engines

• Makes use of “Homeless hydrocarbons”

• Helps improve Well-to-Wheels emissions (lower C/H)

• Fuel used is lower in Aromatics

• GCI need to work with existing market fuels initially

Gasoline Engine

Diesel Engine

GCI Concept Engine

Low Octane Gasoline

GCI Technology Positioning

System Level Efficiency / CO2

Engine Technology Development

Fuel Change

Aramco’s Area of Interest

Fuel m

p in f

Automotive manufacturers

(focus on market fuels)

Saudi Aramco GCI Program

Octane on Demand (OOD) Technology OverviewD

Hydrotreating

Isomerization

Alkylation

Catalytic Reforming

Octane Boosting

• Higher Octane requires more energy intensive upgrading processes in the refinery

• Higher Octane is only required at limited operating conditions

• Full potential of downsizing/boosting technology will not be realized

• OOD uses two fuels to attain only the necessary anti-knock quality based on real-time

engine requirements

• OOD reduces average Octane requirement of gasoline engines

- Lower octane fuel (RON ~60-90) for urban driving (e.g. low Octane gasoline)

- High octane fuel (RON ~105-110) to extend the performance envelope (e.g. butanol, MTBE,

methanol, ethanol, ETBE, DIB)

• Two-tank/dual-fuel, on-board reforming and separation concepts

“Homeless H/Cs”

• Oil-based fuels have significant potential for delivering a reduction in GHG

emissions through deploying affordable, efficient and clean solutions

- when fuel and engine optimized as one system, the burden is shared between the oil

and auto sectors (Well to Wheel (WtW)) and even Cradle to Grave

- when such systems are deployed broadly (e.g. commercial transport, off-road and

even stationary power generation) to maximize the impact on GHGs

- and when low Octane gasoline fuel is utilized (GCI and OOD) ensuring refinery

sustainability

• More diesel and jet fuel demand compared to gasoline AND increase in octane

of gasoline pool

- this trend will be accentuated by growth in alternatives (EVs for passenger cars)

- great challenge to the refining industry – huge investments ($100s of billions

globally) AND surplus of “low-octane gasoline”

Final Thoughts

• Using low Octane gasoline fuel can present a viable pathway to mitigate the

projected shift in demand and reduce average octane requirement

- For LDV, GCI presents a viable and competitive pathway to improve the efficiency of

the gasoline engine using abundant gasoline-like fuels

- For HDV, GCI presents a viable and competitive pathway to potentially reduce the

operating cost and complexity of the Diesel engine while retaining its efficiency

• using low Octane gasolines shifts the after treatment requirement from soot/NOx to HC/CO

• compression ignition engines is the only option for this sector

• GCI Flavors

- Low engine content for emerging markets – emission standards are lagging

- High engine content for markets with stringent emission standards – Full time GCI

• Octane on Demand reduces average octane requirement further enabling

future downsized and boosted engines and relieves refinery stressors

Final Thoughts

• Share in the risk and cost of development and implementation

• Well-to-Wheel (WtW) approach to avoid shifting the burden to other sectors.

System Approach

to Reducing GHGs

Challenge in gaining

stakeholder

acceptance

Stakeholder Acceptance is Key to New Technology Adoption

Collaborative/consortia

approach to deliver a

“win-win” for all

Thank You

Amer A. Amer, Fuel Chief Technologist

Saudi Aramco R&DC

amer.amer.4@Aramco.com

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