unclassified u.s. navy task force climate change robert winokur oceanographer of the navy (acting)...
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UNCLASSIFIED
U.S. NavyTask Force Climate Change
Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting)
March 2012
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Climate Change
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Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin
Arctic Warming is 2 x the Rest of the World
Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008
The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat
Mean surface temperature 2001-2007 relative to baseline period 1951-1980, from:The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009
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U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change
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Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments
Roadmaps
Science & Network
Assessment
Monitor
Conditions
UpdateRoadmaps
Inform Policy &Resource Decisions
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Navy Climate Change Concerns
Near-term Increasing Arctic maritime activity Partnership opportunities Energy security initiatives
Mid-Term Sea level rise impact on installations Water/resource challenges Potential increase in Humanitarian
Assistance/Disaster Response
Wild-cards Ocean acidification Abrupt climate change Geoengineering
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Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives
II. Safeguard U.S. maritime interests in the region
IV. Strengthen existing & foster new cooperative relationships in the region
V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready
III. Protect the American people, our critical infrastructure, & key resources
I. Contribute to safety, stability, & security in the region
Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic
Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010
Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited; Unclassified
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6Enabled & informed by sound science UNCLASSIFIED
Navy Installation Vulnerability
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Physical Impacts
Inundation Wetlands Erosion patterns & rates Surface/ground water supplies Water tables Tidal flows & currents Storm & flood damage
Eglin Air Force Base
Camp Lejeune
Camp Pendleton Naval Station Norfolk
Naval Base Coronado
Navy Study
• Identify most vulnerable installations• Local and regional infrastructure • Prioritize spending• Maintain mission readiness
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Naval Studies Board Recommendations
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Navy action is already underway
Support research &development
Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops)
Address partnership demands
Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities
Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions
Support ratificationof UNCLOS
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It’s all about water
The
Atla
ntic
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Partnerships
National Unified OperationalPrediction Capability (NUOPC)
Earth SystemPrediction Capability (ESPC)
• Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership• A managed National multi-model
ensemble prediction system.• A common modeling framework
linking operations and research.
• ESPC is a coherent, national effort to extend atmospheric, oceanic and Arctic predictions from days to months, years
and decades to meet current and future Naval warfighting and force readiness requirements.
Critical Dependence on Space Observations
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Accomplishments & Developments
Navy Arctic Studies- Mission Analysis- Arctic CBA- Arctic Env CBA*
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OSD-Policy Arctic
Report to Congress
USN-USCG Staff Talks
Arctic Security
Roundtable2012
Naval War College- Fleet Arctic Ops Game
Thule AB Resupply
ICEX 2011 &Science Ice
Exercise Plan
Arctic CHODConference
Arctic Collaborative Workshop
Recent Accomplishments:(Feb 2011 – Jan 2012)
Key Upcoming Events:
Leadership visits &
staff talks
OSD-Policy Arctic
Report to Congress
NASA IceBridge
Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice
numerical prediction
Support for UNCLOS Accession
NASA CASIWorkshop
Conferences
USNA Interns & Curriculum Development
Naval Studies Board study
Asia Pacific Military Medical Conference 2012
Marine Corps University Journal
Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience)
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Facebook.com/NavyTFCCgreenfleet.dodlive.mil/climate-change/
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BACK-UP
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The Team…
Engaged nearly 600 individuals from over 175 organizations
INTERAGENCY INTERNATIONALNATIONAL
DOD
SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL
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