ueda 2008 univ of alaska canary and climate
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The Canary in the Mine Shaft
Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate
Change Initiative
1
In September 2006, two dozen
mayors from 17 states came
together in Alaska to make
improvements in local actions to
address global climate change.
ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability
Headline Impacts
2
Rising temperatures
Thawing permafrost in communities
Increased Forest FiresChapman and Walsh, 2004
Zarling and Goering 2004
Local Impacts, Local Costs in Alaska
3
Public health costs
Economic sectors impacted
Infrastructure damage
Wildfire risk
Established Climate Change Task
Force
NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
(RISA)
•NOAA supports university-
based teams across the
U.S. to analyze how climate
impacts key sectors within a
region and how climate
information could help with
resource management and
planning within that region.
•RISAs create strong university partnerships with federal, state, and local stakeholders within a region.
•Example topics covered
include: Agriculture,
Wildland Fire, Water
Resources, Drought
Planning, Fisheries, Public
Health.
http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
What’s happening out there?
• Warmer temperatures – within 20 years
– Twice as many 85ºF days in summer (about a
week total)
– Above freezing winter (Dec. – Feb.) days
increase from 3-5 days
• Warmer temperatures – within a century
– 15ºF warmer in December and January
– 8-10ºF warmer in July and August
– Almost two weeks of 85ºF days in summer
– Twice as many winter days above freezing (~6
days)
Impacts on Fairbanks North Star Borough
4
What’s happening out there?
• Increased precipitation year-round
– Especially late summer
• Overall-drying since temperatures will be
increasing
– Increased evaporation and transpiration in
plants
• Flooding slightly more likely
– Due to extreme precipitation events
More Impacts
5
What’s happening out there?
• Natural Resources and Energy– Forestry, Hydrology, Air Quality, Permafrost
• Community Health and Human Services – Emergency Response, Public Health, & Air Quality,
Insects,
• Built Environment– Energy usage, Transportation, Construction,
Infrastructure, Sustainability & Cost Savings
• Growth and Economic Development
• Outreach and Education – Working with School District Curriculums
Impacted Sectors
Fairbanks North Star Borough
11
What’s happening out there?
• Natural Resources and Energy– Forestry, Hydrology, Air Quality, Permafrost
• Community Health and Human Services – Emergency Response, Public Health, & Air Quality,
Insects,
• Built Environment– Energy usage, Transportation, Construction,
Infrastructure, Sustainability & Cost Savings
• Growth and Economic Development – Economic impact
– Green jobs
– CO2 mitigation cost savings
• Outreach and Education – Working with School District Curriculums
Impacted Sectors
Fairbanks North Star Borough
11
The Economic Development
Sector Process• What is the economic impact of climate
change?
• What are the economic development
opportunities and threats presented by
climate change?
• What are we evaluating?
– Mitigation?
– Adaptation?
– CO2 emission mitigation?
Evaluating the Impacts &
Opportunities• Meet with local business folks and tell
them…
WHAT?
The Science
• Other teams were highly productive
– People could figure out the
• Impacts on land use
• Agriculture
• Transportation
• The economic development team faltered
– Can calculate economic impact
– What about economic development?
Economic Development
• Other communities talking about opportunities and threats presented by forestalling the climate change itself
– CO2 mitigation
– Green jobs
– Economic impact
• We were talking about economic development opportunities and threats from climate change itself
The Problem Child
• Economic development didn’t fit the mold!
• Data seemed irrelevant to local
businesses
– They could adapt to the changes presented
• Economic impact could be calculated – but
that is not economic development!
• Evaluated industry sectors
• Identified opportunities and threats
What Did We Find?
• Agricultural seasons changing
• Impacts of CO2 legislation
• Northwest Passage opening up!
• Expanded tourism opportunities
So What?• Extended/changed agricultural seasons
provide opportunities
• CO2 legislation provide big opportunities
and threats
• Northwest Passage provides BIG
opportunities and threats!
Conclusion
• By going through this process we identified
opportunities that needed long term focus to
turn into opportunity
– Northwest Passage
– Agriculture
• Role of university research group was crucial
• Role of cooperative extension service also
important in helping communities apply the
more esoteric climate change research.
The University’s Challenge
• Applying pure climate change research at the
community level
• Not everyone has access to climate change
researchers
• Collaborating with community, government and
university entities
• Geographically large. Climatically, economically
and socially diverse. Small population
• Varying levels of community and governmental
sophistication and resources
• Learning how to engage the communities
The Alaskan Plan
• Cooperative Extension Service
– Designing community engagement process
– Translating university climate change
research for community members
– Assisting community members in developing
climate change adaptation plans
– Assisting community members in identifying
and developing plans to pursue economic
development opportunities or mitigating
threats
But What About the Rest of the
Nation?• Model generalizable to other universities?
• National coordination beyond the obvious
agriculture and infrastructure impacts?
• National discussions beyond the business
opportunities of going green or mitigating C02?
• Coordinated regional approach?
• Or –` is it “so what?”
The Challenge
Our challenge is to bring together current
and continuing research with community
engagement to assist with risk reduction
and timely planning for community needs
and economic development.
Bob Wheeler
UAF Cooperative Extension Service
Association of Natural Resource
Extension Professionals National
Conference
• Focus Cooperative Extension and • Climate change
• Energy
• Multi-state (Regional) activities and focus
• June 2010
P.S. Man and polar bear are both safe!
Resources• Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and
Policy (ACCAP ) http://www.uaf.edu/accap/
• Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)
http://www.iclei.org/
• Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning
(SNAP): http://www.snap.uaf.edu/
• State Task Forces
http://www.akclimatechange.us
• UAF Cooperative Extension Services
(CES) http://www.alaska.edu/uaf/ces/
Presenter Contact Information
Dr. Kathryn Dodge
FNSB ARDOR Director
kdodge@fnsb.us 459-1309
Assemblymember Luke Hopkins
North Campus Manager, UAF
lukethopkins@yahoo.com 347-0066
Dr. Bob Wheeler
Professor of Forestry, UAF
ffraw@uaf.edu 474-6356
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