transportation leadership you can trust. 12 th trb transportation planning applications conference,...
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Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
1212thth TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX2009, Houston, TX
presented by
Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel BeaganCambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 18, 2009
Climate Change in Travel Demand Models
Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
2
Presentation Outline
I - What is climate change
II - Impacts on transportation and land use
III - Policies and measures to mitigate climate change
IV - Incorporate climate change in travel demand models
Credit: Rose Fyson, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
3
I - What is Climate Change
Credit: Ninita Machava, Pedro Livinga,Vasco Macuácua,Rebeca Gomes,Rebeca Mavuia.Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
4
A Definition
Changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land surface properties
Radiative forcing
Increases in global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and N2O due to human activities
The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change
Methane and N2O are primarily due to agriculture
5
The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect
Source : The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation
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GHGs and Temperature Trends
Source : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC
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Global and Continental Temperature Change
Source : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, IPCC
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United States Temperature Change
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II - Impacts on Transportation and Land Use
Credit: Students at Charupeeth School of Fine Art, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
10
Impact of Climate Change on Transportation
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeAnd VariabilityAnd Variability
• Temperature changeTemperature change• Precipitation changePrecipitation change• Accelerated sea Accelerated sea level riselevel rise• Increased storm Increased storm surge and intensitysurge and intensity
TransportationTransportationDecision MakingDecision Making
• Systematic planningSystematic planningand investmentand investment• Project developmentProject development• OperationsOperations• MaintenanceMaintenance• System AssessmentSystem Assessment
TransportationTransportationImpactsImpacts
• LocationLocation• System DesignSystem Design• Emergency mgmt.Emergency mgmt.• Investment LevelsInvestment Levels
Source : Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, FHWA
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Impacts on Land Use and Transportation
Water Scarcity
Insurance restrictions
Increases in very hot days and heat waves
Increases in Arctic temperatures
Rising sea levels
Increases in intense precipitation events
Increases in hurricane intensity
12
Operational Impacts
Rising sea levels
• Operational Impact : More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges and more severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes in development patterns
Increases in intense precipitation events
• Operational Impact : Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions and increased flooding of evacuation routes
More frequent strong hurricanes
• Operational Impact : More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations and more debris on roads and rail lines
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III - Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Credit: Ashley Cecil, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
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Policy Recommendations
Incorporate climate change into long term capital improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations, and emergency response plans
Better investment analyses and design approaches to B/C effects of making infrastructure more robust
Better coordination and communication between various agencies
Include needs of transportation decision makers in climate change research
15
Policy Recommendations
Better integration of transportation with emergency response and evacuation plans
Knowledge sharing of best practices across various institutions to address impacts of climate change
Incentives to mitigate climate change impacts
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Policy Recommendations
Include climate change as a factor in the development of Include climate change as a factor in the development of public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 years; and require collaboration in plan development with years; and require collaboration in plan development with agencies responsible for land use, environmental agencies responsible for land use, environmental protection, and natural resource management to foster protection, and natural resource management to foster more integrated transportation–land use decision makingmore integrated transportation–land use decision making
Source : TRB Special Report 290 : Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation
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Mitigation Analysis
Models should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to measures taken to mitigate climate change
The models should be able to answer questions such as
• Impacts of carbon taxes on travel behavior
• Impacts of congestion pricing
• Impacts of changes in transit service
• Impacts of changes to land use
Models should support mitigation policy options
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IV - Incorporate Climate change in Travel Demand Models
Credit: Gukzik Lau, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
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The Modeling Process
Land UseLand Use
Traffic Traffic AssignmentAssignment
Trip GenerationTrip Generation
Trip DistributionTrip Distribution
Mode ChoiceMode Choice
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Climate Change in Demand Models
Climate ChangeClimate ChangeScenarioScenario
5 to 9 F 5 to 9 F increaseincrease
Map USGC geography Map USGC geography to model geographyto model geography
Measure CC scenario Measure CC scenario impacts on impacts on
sociodemographic, sociodemographic, physical and transportationphysical and transportation
characteristicscharacteristics
Incorporate Incorporate into TD modelinto TD model
processprocess
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Land Use Models
Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Current land useCurrent land use
• Zoning plansZoning plans• Environmental Environmental and regulatoryand regulatory
ConstraintsConstraints• DevelopableDevelopable
areasareas
Land Use ModelsLand Use Models
Variability inVariability in• Households/TAZHouseholds/TAZ• Employment/TAZEmployment/TAZ
• Attraction Attraction LocationsLocations
Model changesModel changes •Reduction in Reduction in control totalscontrol totals• Increase in Increase in
transportation transportation costscosts
• Loss of Loss of employmentemployment
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Trip Generation Models
Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Households/TAZHouseholds/TAZ• Employment/TAZEmployment/TAZ
• Special Special generatorsgenerators
Trip GenerationTrip Generation ModelsModels Variability inVariability in
• Trip Ps and AsTrip Ps and As
Model ChangesModel Changes •Reduction in tripReduction in trip
rates rates • Increase in Increase in residential residential
density density
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Trip Distribution Models
Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Trip Ps and AsTrip Ps and As
• SkimsSkims• Trip LengthsTrip Lengths
Trip DistributionTrip Distribution ModelsModels Variability inVariability in
• Trip OD pairsTrip OD pairs
Model ChangesModel Changes • Changes in Changes in
friction factors friction factors • Network Network availability availability
• Access Availability Access Availability
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Mode Choice Models
Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in
• Vehicle AvailabilityVehicle Availability• SkimsSkims
• Destination Destination access access
• Land use changesLand use changes
Mode ChoiceMode Choice ModelsModels
Variability inVariability in• Mode SharesMode Shares
• Mode OD pairsMode OD pairs
Model ChangesModel Changes • More joint trips More joint trips
• Increases in vehicleIncreases in vehicleoperating costsoperating costs• More transit More transit
crowding crowding
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Assignment Models
Changes due to Changes due to Climate Change inClimate Change in• Mode OD pairsMode OD pairs
• SkimsSkims• Network availability Network availability
AssignmentAssignment ModelsModels
Variability inVariability in• VMT, VHTVMT, VHT
• Congested speedsCongested speedsand timesand times
• total vehicles ontotal vehicles onNetworkNetwork
• GHG estimationGHG estimationModel ChangesModel Changes
• Restricted capacity Restricted capacity • Speed restrictionsSpeed restrictions• increased transit increased transit
networksnetworks
26
Summary
Transportation planners and modelers need to be at the climate change table
The impacts of climate change should be included in development or testing of alternatives during the LRTP cycle
The process proposed here offers a relatively simple way to include climate change in travel demand models
The model should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to climate change mitigation strategies
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
1212thth TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX2009, Houston, TX
presented by
Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel BeaganCambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 18, 2009
Climate Change in Travel Demand Models
Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International
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