towards rethinking project portfolio management the … · rethinking project portfolio management...

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSOR

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

AARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

TOWARDSRETHINKING

PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

THE FIRST STEP

WHO AM I?

2

› Educations & Certification› PhD in Information Systems, Aalborg

University› M.Sc. in Social science (Cand.soc), Aalborg

University› Certified Project Manager

(PRINCE2, MS Project, IPMA)

› Experience› Started at Aarhus University 1. Oct. 2017› External lector at ITU› Municipality of Copenhagen› Projectum› Økonomi- og Erhvervsministeriet

› +10 years experience in project and portfolio management

› Teaching

› Projects and business development

› IT Projects and program management

› IT projects and portfolio management

› Agile portfolio management

› IS Philosophy of Science and Research

› Research Areas

› Rethinking project portfolio

management

› Agile and adaptive project portfolio

management

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

AGENDA

• Background

• Project portfolio management research

• Identifying challenges

• Five fundamental challenges

• What next?

Background

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

FIRST STEP IN OUR RESEARCH PROCESS

• This is the first step in a future thorough research

of the academic literature on project portfolio

management

• The presented results are preliminary

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

METHOD

• We analyze a PPM model, whish in your view

represents an “ideal type” of the dominant PPM

literature

• We challenged this model with contributions

from the academic literature and experts

• Thus, we provide insights regarding some of the

fundamental challenges in PPM

• This provides insights to suggest new directions

in future PPM research

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

SEARCH FOR THE DOMINANT PPM LITERATURE

• Many citations means that many other research

contributions has taken the respective PPM

model into account

Database Search result

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

TOP TEN OF MOST CITED PPM MODELS

• Search conducted 11.11.17 via Google Scholar

• Utilized keywords: project portfolio management

• Review of the first 15 search pages in the search result

• Used the search result to at top 10 of the most citied PPM articles/books

Rank Contribution Citations*

1 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio Management for New Product

Development." (2006).

1254

2 Turner, J. Rodney. Handbook of project-based management. McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing, 2008. 1230

3 Archer, Norm P., and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "An integrated framework for project portfolio selection."

International Journal of Project Management 17.4 (1999): 207-216.

906

4 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "New product portfolio management: practices

and performance." Journal of product innovation management 16.4 (1999): 333-351.

808

5 Cooper, Robert, Scott Edgett, and Elko Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio management for new product development:

results of an industry practices study." r&D Management 31.4 (2001): 361-380.

717

6 Engwall, Mats, and Anna Jerbrant. "The resource allocation syndrome: the prime challenge of multi-project

management?." International journal of project management 21.6 (2003): 403-409.

492

7 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "Portfolio management in new product

development: Lessons from the leaders—I." Research-Technology Management 40.5 (1997): 16-28.

431

8 Ghasemzadeh, Fereidoun, and Norman P. Archer. "Project portfolio selection through decision support."

Decision support systems 29.1 (2000): 73-88.

419

9 Cooper, Robert G., Scott J. Edgett, and Elko J. Kleinschmidt. "New problems, new solutions: making portfolio

management more effective." Research-Technology Management 43.2 (2000): 18-33.

415

10 Jeffery, Mark, and Ingmar Leliveld. "Best practices in IT portfolio management." MIT Sloan Management

Review 45.3 (2004): 41.408

PPM research

THREE RESEARCH FIELDS DOMINATES PPM RESEARCH

Project Management New Products

Development

Information

Systems

Cooper et al (1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006)Archer and Ghasemzadeh (1999, 2000)

(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999)

AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM MODELS

(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999/2007)

AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM

Identifyingfundamental

challenges

IDENTIFYING CHALLENGES

1. Input from experts, e.g. Prof.Martinsou(two PPM contributions in top 25)

2. Mind mapping existing knowledge

3. More work to do..[..]

Fivefundamentalchallenges

CHALLENGE 1#

Project goals are defined early, but values is

created much later (Matinsou, 2017):

•The environment may change due to

uncertainties (Martinsou et al., 2014)

•Stakeholders may change preferences (Ward et

al., 2008)

CHALLENGE 1#

“it’s hard to alter course when you’re being swept down a large waterfall . . . Too much up-front planning means too much change management downstream” (Cooper, 2016)

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

CHALLENGE 2#

Important decisions may be made decentralized

(Frey and Buxman 2014)

•Finding out what the ”customer” need

•Decentralized resource- and funding allocation

TREND DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

Adapted from Bernstein et al (2016)

FROM ORG CHARTS TO WORK CHARTS

Adapted from Bernstein et al (2016)

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

CHALLENGE 3#

PPM is not a strictly rational process (Christansen

and Varnes, 2008)

•Decisions are made on the basis on “logic of

appropriateness”

•Actors interpret and negotiate in PPM

interpretsinterprets

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

CHALLENGE 4#

Decision making has conscious and unconscious

biases (Kahneman et al., 2003)

•Often we think we know (first and second level

thinking) (Kahneman et al 2003)

•Sometimes subordinates lies to decision makers

(Flyvbjerg et al., 2002)

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

CHALLENGE 4#

ANCHORING BIAS

• Do you know where the numbers came from?

Can there be unsubstantiated numbers? ...

Extrapolation, from history? ... A motivation to

use a certain anchor?

• Reanchor with figures generated by other

models or benchmarks, and request new

analysis.

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

CHALLENGE 5#

Context matters, one size does not fit all (Nolan

and McFarlan 2005)

• Strategic and operational importance of

projects has influence on extent and intensity of

PPM activities (Nolan and Mcfarlan, 2005)

• Different contexts favors different settings e.g.

agile vs. classic projects management (Rigby et

al., 2016)

IMPORTANCE OF PROJECTS AND EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF PPM ACTIVITIES

(Nolan and Mcfralan, 2005)

CONTEXTS AND DIFFERENT PROJECTS MANAGEMENT METHODS

(Rigby at al., 2016)

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

(Archer and Ghasemzadeh, 1999)

AN IDEAL TYPE OF CLASSIC PPM MODELS

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

What is next..?

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

FUTURE DIRECTION FOR RESEARCH

Some ideas:

•Build on excising frameworks/models

• e.g. SAFe or Christansen and

Varnes (2008)

•Suggestions…?

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

EXTENT INSIGHTS FROM CLASSIC PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

(Adopted from Svejvig and Andersen, 2015)

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

QUESTIONS (IF TIME AVAILABLE)

1. Which of the five challenges do you see

as the most important related to your

organization’s PPM?

2. What solutions could be suggested?

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

FINAL QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS?

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

REFERENCES

Archer, Norm P., and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "An integrated framework for project

portfolio selection." International Journal of Project Management 17.4 (1999): 207-216.

Archer, Norm, and Fereidoun Ghasemzadeh. "Project portfolio selection and

management." Morris, P./Pinto, JK (2007), The Wiley Guide to Project, Program &

Portfolio Management (2007): 94-112.

Bernstein, Ethan, et al. "Beyond the holacracy hype." Harvard Business Review 94.7/8

(2016): 38-49.

Christiansen, John K., and Claus Varnes. "From models to practice: decision making at

portfolio meetings." International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management 25.1

(2008): 87-101.

Cooper, Robert G. "Agile–Stage-Gate Hybrids: The Next Stage for Product Development

Blending Agile and Stage-Gate methods can provide flexibility, speed, and improved

communication in new-product development." Research-Technology Management

59.1 (2016): 21-29.

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

REFERENCES

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Mette Skamris Holm, and Soren Buhl. "Underestimating costs in public

works projects: Error or lie?." Journal of the American planning association 68.3 (2002):

279-295.

Frey, Thorsten, and Peter Buxmann. "The importance of governance structures in IT

project portfolio management." ECIS. 2011.

Kahneman, Daniel, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony. "Before you make that big decision."

Harvard business review 89.6 (2011): 50-60.

Martinsuo, M., Korhonen, T. and Laine, T. (2014) Identifying, framing and managing

uncertainties in project portfolios. International Journal of Project Management 32 (5)

732-746

Matinsou, Mia 2017: lecture at implement 28 September 2017

Markowitz, Harry. "Portfolio selection." The journal of finance 7.1 (1952): 77-91.

Nolan, Richard, and F. Warren McFarlan. "Information technology and the board of

directors." Harvard business review 83.10 (2005): 96.

LARS KRISTIAN HANSEN

6 NOVEMBER 2017 ASSISTANT PROFESSORAARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

REFERENCES

Rigby, Darrell K., Jeff Sutherland, and Hirotaka Takeuchi. "Embracing agile." Harvard

Business Review 94.5 (2016): 40-50.

Svejvig, Per, and Peter Andersen. "Rethinking project management: A structured

literature review with a critical look at the brave new world." International Journal of

Project Management 33.2 (2015): 278-290.

Ward, Peppard & Daniel (2008). Building Better Business Cases for IT investments, MIS

Quarterly Executive 7 (1).

THE END

AARHUS UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT