three revolutions transforming transportationalaink/smartdrivingcars/pdfs... · 2018-10-08 ·...

Three Revolutions – Transforming Transportation

June 25, 2018Webinar Registration: ___

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Edward Saltzberg

Managing Director

Security & Sustainability

Forum

Dan Sperling

Director, UC Davis

Institute of Transportation

Studies

Webinar Moderator

Robin Chase

Transportation Entrepreneur, Co-

Founder and Former CEO of

ZipCar

Austin Brown

Executive Director, UC Davis

Policy Institute for Energy, the

Environment and the Economy

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Agenda

1. Opening: Edward Saltzberg, Security and Sustainability Forum

2. Three Revolutions – Panelist Presentations (45 minutes)

Daniel Sperling, Moderator

Robin Chase

Austin Brown

3. Discussion Panel (15 minutes)

4. Audience Q&A: (25 minutes) - Use the box in the Go to Webinar window

5. Panel Summary (2 minutes)

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4

Moderator5

Dr. Daniel Sperling

Director, UC Davis Institute of

Transportation StudiesBlue Planet Prize-winning Professor of Civil

Engineering and Environmental Science and

Policy; lead author of IPCC, sharing 2007 Nobel

Peace Prize

Panel6

Austin Brown

Executive Director,

UC Davis Policy

Institute for Energy,

the Environment and

the Economy

Robin Chase

Transportation

Entrepreneur, Co-Founder

and Former CEO of

ZipCar

Dr. Daniel Sperling

Director, UC Davis Institute of

Transportation Studies

Blue Planet Prize-winning

Professor of Civil Engineering

and Environmental Science

and Policy; lead author of

IPCC, sharing 2007 Nobel

Peace Prize

The Three Transportation Revolutions… a call to action

Daniel Sperling

Distinguished Blue Planet Professor and Founding Director

Institute of Transportation Studies

University of California, Davis

and

Board Member, California Air Resources Board

Security and Sustainability Forum (webinar)

25 June 2018

Today’s Transportation System is Not Sustainable

Cities and Lifestyles are Too Car-Centric

Car-Centric LA

I-105 & I-110 with HOV Flyover

Car-Centric Monoculture is Extraordinarily Expensive and

Resource-Intensive

➢Road Infrastructure Cost

▪ Over $100 billion/yr (US)

▪ Plus other infrastructure costs to support sprawl

➢ Personal Cost

▪ $5000-$9000/year to own and operate a car (US)

• Car sits idle 95% of time (and transit accounts for only 1% of passenger travel)

▪ Total = $1+ trillion/yr (US)

➢Oil

▪ 70% of oil consumption (USA)

▪ $300-$500 billion/yr

➢ Climate Change

▪ 1/3 of GHGs (US)

Minimal “Systems” Innovation for 5+ Decades

Previous Transport “Revolutions”

Movement of People

1. Streetcars (~1890)

2. Automobiles (Oil) (~1910)

3. Airplanes (~1930)

4. Limited access highways (~1930s…1950s)

Movement of Goods

1. Canals (~1800)

2. Railroads (~1830)

3. Trucks (Oil) (~1910)

4. Airplanes (~1930)

5. Containers (~1950)

11

Shared

(pooled)

Electric

(ZEV)

Automated

(connected)

Electrification + Automation + Pooling

(All 3 Needed for Sustainable Transportation)

Electric Vehicles Will Dominate… Not If, But When(battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell electric)

Auto Industry Ready

• Automakers have developed the technology

• Supply chains in place

• Battery costs continuing to drop

Policies in Place

• Strong performance standards in all major markets to reduce GHGs (energy) (though “issues” in one large market)

• ZEV mandates in China and 30% of US

• Strong political declarations for EVs in many cities and some countries

Largest EV Markets in World: China #1, USA #2China accounts for ½ of sales, ¼ of oil displaced (out of 95m b/d today)

Ten

s o

f m

illi

on

s o

f b

/d

BNEF, Long Term EV Outlook, 2018

AVs Will Also Dominate (eventually)

… But Will They Be “Pooled” or Individually Owned?

• Ridehailing companies embrace “pooling”

▪ Lyft, Uber, Didi

▪ Lower price more customers (price elastic) more revenue more profit

• But ….

▪ Will travelers share rides

• …. at what price?

▪ Will Americans (and Europeans and Chinese) give up car ownership

• … under what conditions?

15

Source: Early findings from UC Davis/Berkeley “chauffer” study: Harb, M., Xiao, Y., Circella, G., Mokhtarian, P., & Walker, J., presented at TRB Meeting, Washington D.C., January 8, 2018.

Pooling is Crucial… Huge Increase in VMT With

Individually Owned AVs (“Hell Scenario”)

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0

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Co

mm

uti

ng

Mar

ket

Shar

e

DRIVE ALONE

CARPOOL

Reality Check …

Carpooling has dropped from 20% to 9% (US commuting)

Will Travelers Embrace “Pooling” and Relinquish Auto Ownership?

NO?!

• Large in-car time savings ($3000-$10,000/year) ($10-30/hr x 300 hours)

▪ Why bother sharing?

• Concerns about:

▪ Personal security (no “adult” in car)

▪ Longer and uncertain trip times

• Functional needs

▪ Families, sports gear, dogs, business/equipment

• Non-functional “needs”

▪ Status and image, entertainment, investment

Yes! If…

• Cars redesigned for privacy and security (passenger-centric)

• Increasingly large disincentives for single-occupant vehicles (and ZOVs)

• Increasingly large incentives for pooling (reg fees, congestion fees, curbspace, HOV lanes…)

First Disruption: TaxisIn US, taxis lost half the market and continuing to decline

Transit data from APTA, Taxi data from US Census, and projections from Schaller Consulting (2018)

Lyft/Uber

Will We Be Prepared for the Disruptions?

Pooling + Electric + Automated = Very Cheap, Clean Mobility

Opportunity Exists for Truly Sustainable Transportation!

Key Issues and Insights… Toward Pooling (and “Pricing”)

• Goal: VMT PMT

• Vision: Transition from car monoculture

• Strategy

1. Create choice

2. Create incentives and disincentives to support pooling and reduced car ownership

3. Help transit coordinate/collaborate with new mobility services

• Single integrated information and payment portal?!

4. Steer AVs to pooling (passenger-centric, incentives/disincentives)

• Large concern

▪ Cities at frontline of 3Rs, but starved for resources... ill-equipped to innovate (US)

▪ Same for transit

Three Revolutions By Daniel Sperling

Use discount code 4SPERLING to save 20%

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revolutions

Robin Chase

Transportation Entrepreneur,

Co-Founder and Former CEO

of ZipCar

Infrastructure is Destiny

Eisenhower Interstate Highway System 1956

+

Levittown, NY 1947-1951

+

US Netherlands

Km cycled/person/yr

47 864

% Obesity >15 yrs old

36% 12%40 years of Cycle-friendly infrastructure building

HUMAN NATURE(personal infrastructure)

We strongly favor convenience (EASY & CHEAP) economics

TAX & REGULATORY (ECONOMIC) INFRASTRUCTURE

We have underpriced:

● Air pollution

● Congestion

● Curb access (in conditions of scarcity)

● User fees for transportation infrastructure investment (in some countries)

With market pricing misaligned with reality, we are overconsuming car travel.

Over the last 100 years, we have specifically and proactively made personal carseasy and cheap.

Underpriced, Private vehicles as a solution have found their limits, clogging streets, arteries and the atmosphere

Global CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion by Sector

Source: Authors using data from US Census Bureau (2016)Source: Authors using data from IEA (2015)

Source: TomTom Traffic Index (2016)

World’s Most Congested Cities

© 2017 VENIAM, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

≤Our planetary infrastructure

TECHNOLOGYGPS, Internet, Wireless, Smart Phones, e-payment, Open Data, Electric

Batteries

Technology has made sharing easy

Car Sharing Transit Apps E-Hailing and Ride-Sharing

24% of people chose not to walk or bike

What would you do if e-hailing/ridesharing did not exist?

It has also made on-demand consumption and delivery easy and convenient with consequences for city retail, and street and curb use

E-Commerce as a Percent of Retail Shopping

Projections 2015-2021

Source: Statistica.com

2017 2030

60%.............

Enter self-driving cars…making car trips even cheaper (no driver!)

Driverless Car Market Projections:

By 2020…Honda (highway)Hyundai (highway)Toyota (highway)Renault-Nissan (in cities)

By 2021…Audi (fully)BMW (fully)Ford (fully)Volvo (highway)

(Source: techemergence.com, autonew.com)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bHXTWhALz9RRAzyqSQEyP_YqydNw7icw/view?usp=sharing

If we understand that people naturally choose easy & cheap,& INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINY

& AVS ARE IMMINENT (AT LEAST IN CITIES)

Over next 5 yearsWe need to specifically & pro-actively rework ourECONOMIC, PHYSICAL & DATA INFRASTRUCTURE

active & shared transport EASY & CHEAP

active & shared transport EASY & CHEAP…

MAKES SENSE!

Today’s personal car trips:75% of trips SPACE INEFFICIENT (single occupancy)45% of trips BIKEABLE < 4 miles (6.5 kms)15% of trips WALKABLE < 1.5 miles (2.5 kms)

& SAFER

We need to align siloed interests into a powerful global collaboration…

Around a common urban vision…

Sustainable, inclusive, prosperous, and resilient cities

depend on transportation that facilitates the safe, efficient, and

pollution-free flow of people and goods,

while also providing affordable, healthy, and integrated mobility

for all people.

City Ecosystem

Land use and buildings

Government revenues

Employment

Environment and energy

The business sector

Urban mobility

Policy

Public Benefit

The endorsers of the SHARED MOBILITY PRINCIPLES include:

Shared Mobility Principles for Livable Cities

1. Plan cities and mobility together2. Focus on moving people, not cars3. Encourage efficient use of space and assets4. Engage stakeholders in decision making5. Design for equitable access6. Transition towards zero emissions7. Seek fair user fees across all modes8. Deliver public benefits via open data 9. Promote integration and seamless connectivity 10. Automated vehicles must be shared

SharedMobilityPrinciples.org

The endorsers of the SMPs include:

#2 Move people, not cars#3 Encourage efficient use of space & assets

AV benefits are differentiated by population

density. AVsPersonal & Electric

Exurban

FAVESFleets of AVs that are Electric & Shared

Urban.

Safety benefits felt here.

Transformed land use (shared) & better air quality (electric) key

benefits here.

#2 Move people, not cars#3 Encourage efficient use of space & assets

60 people/lane/block 40 people/lane/block 12 people/lane/block

#7 Fair user fees across all modesTODAY: Cities express ambivalence

In San Francisco• $110 for a car parked illegally• $500 for an electric scooter parked illegally

In New York City• Personal cars will travel for free in Manhattan• Shared vehicles will be taxed $2.75/trip

<-Continuuuuummmmm->

Interoperability btwn modesCompetition w/in modes

#8 Public benefits via open data

SharedStreets.io

A chance to DO-OVER Cities

Today we have a unique and irreplaceable window of opportunity

• provides a concrete and visible time horizon for action, with• a built-in refreshment of our vehicle stock • a host of focusing problems for all stakeholders

INFRASTRUCTURE IS DESTINYWe have to get this transition right.

To summarize recommendations:

Start rationalizing policy to be consistent across all modes!

Reflecting real COSTS of• tail pipe emissions• Vehicle space efficiency (per square meter, with benefits for increased occupancy)• Congestion charging or reallocation of public rights of way to get more throughput of

people.

Standard DATA & reporting

EQUITY & ACCESS accommodations

Austin Brown

Executive Director, UC

Davis Policy Institute for

Energy, the Environment

and the Economy

The Three Transportation Revolutions… a policy roadmap informed by research

Austin Brown, Ph.D.

Executive Director

UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the

Economy

Security and Sustainability Forum (webinar)

25 June 2018

Today’s Transportation System is Not Sustainable

… and New Mobility is no Panacea

New Roles for PolicymakersPolicy Level Traditional Roles Example New Policy Needs

Federal • Provide transportation funding.

• Regulate the safety of the vehicle.

• Define jurisdictions. Support

modernization of transit funding.

• Regulate the “driver” when it is the

vehicle.

State • Set rules for operation, driver

licensing, insurance, and liability.

• Testing, registration and use of

automated vehicles.

• Set operational rules, incentives for

pooling and efficient operation.

• Modernize insurance and liability

rules.

City and Regional • Build and maintain infrastructure.

• Manage transit systems.

• Price empty or single occupant miles,

and access to congested areas.

• Modernize transit.

• Set rules for data sharing and use.

Example Research-Driven Policy OptionsTopic Research Shows… Policy Options

Data • We don’t know the range of

impacts of new mobility systems.

• Establish reasonable sharing

requirements.

• Develop data management plans and

systems.

Infrastructure • Charging needs will be different for

shared electric fleets.

• What we build will define how

people choose to travel.

• Plan infrastructure to advance public

goals.

• Account for new technology in

planning.

Emissions • Automation can increase VMT and

potentially emissions.

• Ensure most automated vehicles are

shared and electric.

Transit • In the current policy environment,

new mobility competes with transit.

• Modernize transit to leverage, not

compete with, new mobility.

Pricing • The user doesn’t always pay in the

current system.

• Services that are seen as “free”

are tough to price.

• Get pricing frameworks in place now.

• Base pricing on public impacts

(incentivize pooling).

Can’t we Just Wait and See? The Risk of “Free”

The User Doesn’t Always Pay Today

Priced Unpriced / Partially

Priced

Vehicle Infrastructure Use

Fuel Congestion

Accidents (via insurance) Parking

Time Pollution

Last Thoughts

• The transportation system could be much better.

• Safety, congestion, pollution, equity, efficiency, economic opportunity

• New technologies and business models are a risk and an opportunity.

• No one knows how long this will take. We have to talk about what we will demand from our transportation system.

• This is a unique time to get the policy framework in place to get benefits from automated vehicles (and minimize unintended consequences).

• Need all 3 Revolutions

• The role of public policy is to help us do the things that are hard but are still a good idea.

62

3 Revolutions Policy Initiative (at UC Davis)

Platform to engage governments, industry, NGOs, other researchers

Shared

(pooled)

Electric

(ZEV)

Automated

(connected)

dokbrown@ucdavis.edu

Thank You.

Panel Discussion and Q&A64

Austin Brown

dokbrown@ucdavis.eduRobin Chase

http://www.robinchase.org

Dan Sperling

dsperling@ucdavis.edu

Three

Revolutions

Use discount code

4SPERLING to save 20%

https://islandpress.org/books/

three-revolutions

Three Revolutions – Transforming Transportation

June 25, 2018Webinar Registration: ___

Access the Free SSF Webinar Archives

Subscribe for Webinar Alerts

www.ssfonline.org

Edward Saltzberg

Managing Director

Security & Sustainability

Forum

Dan Sperling

Director, UC Davis

Institute of Transportation

Studies

Webinar Moderator

Robin Chase

Transportation Entrepreneur, Co-

Founder and Former CEO of

ZipCar

Austin Brown

Executive Director, UC Davis

Policy Institute for Energy, the

Environment and the Economy