the state of fibre and key market trends · the state of fibre and key market trends. uk fibre...
Post on 18-Jun-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Erzsébet Fitori, Director GeneralFTTH Council Europe
The State of Fibre and key market trends
UK Fibre Connectivity Forum3 June 2019, London
Overview
The State of Fibre: FTTH/B Market Panorama
Fibre for 5G: a Story of Convergence
Copper Switch-Off and Migration to Fibre
The State of Fibre: FTTH/B Market Panorama
FTTH/B figures – September 2018
As of September 2018 in Europe39*: • 59.6 million FTTH/B subscribers• Almost 160 million FTTH/B Homes Passed
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)
• EU28 has a stronger position in the whole European region (EU39) • By Sept. 2018, half of FTTH/B deployments took place inside the EU28 countries:
increasing trend compared to previous years
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
General Ranking: FTTH/B Homes passed
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018
+ 43.1 %
+ 40.5 %
+ 22.8 %
+ 17.4 %
+ 15.1 %
Italy
Poland
UK
Portugal
Germany
17 countries with more than 2m.
HP
EU28 : 11 countries in the
Ranking
Top 5 annual growth rates –Sept 2017-Sept 2018
General ranking: FTTH/B Homes Passed
General ranking – FTTH/B Subscribers
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018
European Ranking as of September 2018
• Penetration rates of European countries at September 2018 (FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)
• Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households
• Analysis of around 400 FTTH/B projects in Europe39 at September 2018
• Around 55% of total Homes in the region have been passed by Alternative ISPs, and approx.41% by incumbents (as compared to 21% by incumbents in 2011)
• Municipalities/Local Authorities, along with utilities when appropriate, will remain those ones thatwill help ensure an exhaustive coverage at term
Breakdown of FTTH/B Sockets deployed by type of player (%)Data comparison between Dec. 2011 and Sept. 2018
Top European countries –Breakdown in terms of Sockets deployed
Russia1
Spain2
France3
Ukraine4
Total Sockets deployed: 71,435,000 Incumbents: 33,200,000 Alternative ISPs: 38,235,000
Total Sockets deployed: 43,234,160 Incumbents: 20,800,000 Alternative ISPs: 22,375,000 Municip./Utilities: 59,160
Total Sockets deployed: 39,201,000 Incumbents: 10,906,000 Alternative ISPs: 26,565,000 Municip./Utilities: 1,730,000
Total Sockets deployed: 10,765,000 Alternative ISPs: 10,765,000
5Romania
Total Sockets deployed: 9,124,750 Incumbents: 2,107,000 Alternative ISPs: 7,017,750
FTTH/B growth by players
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
Drivers promoting FTTH adoption
Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex. Gigabit Society targets set for 2025)
Governments have been revising their Digital Infrastructure strategy to focus on Fibre and 5G leading to higher availability of public funds dedicated to enhancing fibre-based networks
Progressive switch-off of copper-based infrastructure and migration to FTTH networks
Data demands and video content continue to growth leading to higher bandwidth and lower latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)
Both incumbents and alternative ISPs shifting their core business towards FTTH
Municipalities/Utilities pushing to expand fibre networks in remote areas not always economically viable for private players
Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G convergence
Hurdles affecting FTTH adoption
Copper-based DSL & Cable improvements with new emerging variants could delay FTTH enhancement
Potential risk of mobile 5G broadband technology delaying FTTH in economically non-viable areas
Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies (however costs are following a downward trend YoY)
Non-feasible business model for isolated areas
Some initiatives are facing administrative barriers that are delaying fibre expansion in areas not yet covered (right of ways)
Fibre for 5G: a Story of Convergence
Fibre for 5G: Study background
Objectives of the project:
• Demonstrate the potential cost savings of convergence between 5G and FTTH/B
• Illustrate the differences between various scenarios:1. Area Density: Urban (high-dense) / suburban (medium-dense) / rural (low-
dense)2. Cell Density: conservative / medium / high3. Fibre count: high / low4. Cable deployment: underground / overhead5. Timing: separate FTTH and FTT5G / fully convergent FTTH + FTT5G
• Illustrate the impact of key factors on the total cost savings of a converged network
Assumptions: 9 Scenarios
Assumptions: Areas
Costs
INCLUDED
• OSP Fiber Network• Trenching• Ducts• Cables• Closures• Poles
• ISP Central Office• ODF• Racks
EXCLUDED
• Fiber ActiveEquipment
• 5G Active Equipment• 5G Site Acquisition• 5G Spectrum
Assumptions: Costs
Study Results
High Cell Density Medium Cell Density Low Cell Density
High Dense Area 74% -- 5,6% 75% -- 3,8% 96% -- 0,4%
Medium Dense Area 75% -- 7,2% 83% -- 3,2% 93% -- 0,8%
Low Dense Area 65% -- 6,6% 81% -- 2,7% 85% -- 1,9%
% of FTT5G saved by convergence -- % of extra investment to make FTTH 5G-ready
Copper Switch-Off &Migration to Fibre
Copper Switch-Off: Study background
Analysis focusing on status of switch-off process of PSTN and copper network
Focus on 10 selected countries: Estonia, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Netherlands, France, Poland, Germany, UK
Overview of benefits of switch-off process for operators & consumers
Overview of enablers & incentives of switch-off process
Overview of regulatory barriers/barriers
Source: WIK for FTTH Council Europe
Copper Switch-Off Progress
Limited progress towards copper switch-off in the 10 countries studied
Estonia and Sweden are clear leaders, more gradual process Spain, Portugal
Focus on migration to FTTC in Italy (partial switch-off)
Pilots in NL
No concrete plans in remaining 4 countries (FR, DE, UK, PL)
Source: WIK for FTTH Council Europe
Copper Switch-Off: Key Conclusions
Switching from copper to FTTH delivers benefits to both consumers and operators and improves the business case for FTTH
Limited progress towards copper switch-off in Europe so far
From the countries studied, only EE has made major steps to switch customers from copper to FTTH, while switch-off from copper to wireless has progressed in SE
More progress has been made towards PSTN switch-off (a prerequisite for copper switch-off). PT, EE, NL and DE should achieve all-IP by 2020, but other countries such as FR, PL and UK are not set to achieve all-IP until 2025
The reasons for the limited switch-off plans are diverse. In some countries FTTH has yet to be widely deployed. In others strict controls on exchange closure may be delaying switch-off. A lack of understanding of the benefits of fibre and challenges in switching to a fibre operator may also be hampering consumers from migrating in other cases.
Source: WIK for FTTH Council Europe
Copper Switch-Off: Key Recommendations
Member states and regulators could usefully act to enable copper and PSTN switch-off, and support consumer migration to FTTH:
• Facilitate PSTN switch-off as a precursor inter alia by encouraging operators to find solutions that support legacy equipment or inform consumers of alternatives
• Incentivise FTTH deployment and/or use of FTTH access by incumbents and avoid promoting continued reliance on copper and copper upgrades such as FTTC
• Review conditions (notice periods and wholesale obligations) for copper exchange closure
• Improve customer awareness by clearly distinguishing FTTH from FTTC in advertising
• Improve processes for switching between the incumbent and alternative FTTH platforms
Source: WIK for FTTH Council Europe
Thank you for your attention!
Erzsébet FitoriDirector General
FTTH Council Europeerzsebet.fitori@ftthcouncil.eu
Background slides
General ranking - FTTH/B Coverage
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
General ranking - FTTH/B Takeup
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
High Dense Area – High Dense Cells
Cost FTTH
8,51M€
Cost FTT5G1,85M€
Cost FTTAll converged
8,99M€
Value of convergence
Extra FTTH investment to be 5G ready
0,48 M€
8,51 M€
=
Extra Investment on top of FTTH to make it 5G ready
5,6 %
1,37 M€
1,85 M€
Percentage of the FTT5G cost that could
be saved through convergence
= 74 %
Inputs: 5G Parameters
Assumptions and Objectives
• Heterogeneous 5G Network: Macro Cells [MC] (on dominant rooftops): current 4G Macro Sites considered
if availableSmall-Cells [SC] (on lamp posts)In High-dense area: additional indoor hotspots in train station, university
campus, cultural centre, ..• Carrier frequency:
3,5 GHz (MC and SC)26 GHz (SC*)
Two sectors, pointing in opposite directions• Beamforming
Beam-switching technique• Target:
Minimum data rate in streets (& optionally indoor)For different target outdoor coverage percentages
* not in low-dense area
Inputs: 5G Parameters
Assumptions and ObjectivesHigh Cell Density Medium Cell Density Low Cell Density
High Dense AreaMC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%
SC @ 26GHz: 95%+ indoor hotspots
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%SC @ 26GHz: 50%+ indoor hotspots
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%SC @ 26GHz: indoor
hotspots only
Medium Dense Area MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%SC @ 26GHz: 95%
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%SC @ 26GHz: 50%
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%SC @ 26GHz: 25%
Low Dense AreaMC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 70%*
(indoor: 30%)no SC at 26GHz
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 98%*(indoor: 55%)
no SC at 26GHz
MC+SC @ 3,5GHz: 100%*
(indoor: 92%)no SC at 26GHz
(*) % of “populated” area / villages
FTTX Parameters
Architectural and Material Assumptions• FTTH (Fiber to the Home / Residential)
P2MP / GPON with 1:32 splitter in Distribution Points2 fiber per Home (1 active, 1 spare)Distribution Points / Cabinets per 60 to 96 HomesUndergound network, with Microducts and Air Blown Fiber cablesMid span access Feeder cables of 96 or 48 fibers, dropping bundles of 8 fibers
per cabinet• FTT5G (Fiber to the Antenna for 5G)
Fibers per site: 3 scenariosHigh fiber count – P2P: 12 active + 12 spare fibers Low fiber count – P2P: 4 active + 4 spare fibersHigh fiber count – P2MP: 12 active + 12 spare fibers, grouped per 4 antennas on an aggregation point with 1:4 splitters
• FTTAll (Converged)Hybrid GPON and P2P / Share Distribution Ducts, Cabinets, Feeder
Cables&Ducts
top related