the role of computing in climate science dr. robert bishop
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The Role of Computing in Climate Science
Dr. Robert Bishop
WMO Information System (WIS)
Workshop on Information Access Enablers
Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010
Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!
Icelandic Ash Cloud: Mantle-Crust-Glacier-RiversWeather-Climate-Agriculture-Economy-Society
The Bigger Picture
CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTH
SOLAR SYSTEM
CIVILISATION
21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration
The Whole Earth – An Holistic Approach
• Seamless• Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)• Multi-science (physical & socio-economic)
The New Grand Challenge
We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos
for over 200 years!• In Research• In Research Funding• In Publishing• In Conferences • In University Faculties • In Government Departments
1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations
Yokohama Earth Simulator Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6
Best Dedicated Climate Machines(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)
Worldwide
Ranking
Organisation
Country
Peak
Teraflops Sustained
Teraflops Supplier
# 31 JAMSTEC JAPAN 131.07 122.40
NEC
SX-9
# 33 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 34 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 35 DKRZ GY 151.60 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 54 NAVO USA 117.13 90.84
CRAY
XT5
We need to use ‘best in class’ technology to deal with the
complexity of weather, climate, environment and their socio-
economic interaction,hence ……
ICES: a peak performance facility
• Hardware
• Software
• Data
• Science
• People
ICES Top Priorities
• Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 5 of machines worldwide• Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to
national and regional Earth & Climate centres worldwide• Enable climate science to reach comparable levels of spatial
and temporal resolution as NWP• Evolve open source Earth system models by integrating
elements from climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences• Drive breakout hierarchy of nextgen Earth-Climate models• Support training of next generation ‘holistic thinkers’• Provide info-briefings on Earth & Climate to International Organisations & NGOs
ICES and Disaster Risk Management
•Community Resilience
•Adaptation & Mitigation
•Planning & Relief
Strategies
•Precursor Signals
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTHSYSTEM
CLIMATE & WEATHER
SOCIALSYSTEMS
SOLARSYSTEM
ICES and Geoengineering
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTHSYSTEM
CLIMATE & WEATHER
SOCIALSYSTEMS
SOLARSYSTEM
•Climate Remediation
•CO2 Removal
•Solar Radiation Management
•Unexpected Consequences
Proposed ICES Computing Resources• Dedicated High Performance Computing - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)
• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion & image analysis - auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering
• Low cost power availability (nuclear, hydro, solar)• Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU• Green Computing, Cloud Computing• Citizen Science Computing• Google Earth, WolframAlpha
HPC Computing Architectures (We need to compute ~ 1000 x real-time)
• Homogeneous vs heterogeneous • Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom• Programming languages, software tools & middleware• Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory• Power management, flops/watt• Silicon-Photonics. • Quantum?
Earth Modelling Software• Grid Size• Parameterisation• Algorithm development• Coupling, linkages & feedbacks• Representation of physical processes• Integration of the socio-economic processes• Initial & boundary condition determination• Uncertainty estimates & management • Statistical & ensemble methods• Hierarchy of models• Multi-models• Stochastics• Nextgen
Earth Data Challenges
• Data assimilation• Historical data re-analysis• Data access, archiving & meta-data• Data quality control & harmonisation• Data availability (in situ, remote sensing)• Sparse data (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica)• Model output-data validation & verification• Model output-data storage (or re-compute?)
Observation & Data Sources
• Airborne & Satellite Remote Sensing: Envisat, MeteoSat, SMOS, GOCE, GOES-R, LandSat, SBIRS
• In Situ: AWS, Radar, Lidar, Broadband Seismic
• Mobile: Aircraft, Ships, Argo Buoys, Autos? Cell Phones?
• Socio-economic: GDP, Land Use, Food, Water Resources, Energy, etc.
Core Actor’s Network
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) - World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)• Group on Earth Observations (GEO)• European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)• National Meteorology Bureaus• National Geological Surveys • National Climate Centres• Research Universities
Extended Actor’s Network
• ESA, NASA, JAXA, EUMETSAT, CGMS • IOC, 21stC-OI, SIO, WHC, JAMSTEC• BGS, BRGM, USGS, ERI• GEOSS, GCOS, GMES• ENES, ACRE, ESFRI• CSIRO, CALIT2, NCAR, COLA• CNRS (CC-IN2P3), PRACE• UK Agencies: DEFRA, DECC• US Agencies: NOAA, NSF, DOE, DOD
ICES Organisation Structure
• Geneva-based • Not-for-profit Foundation• Public-Private Partnership• Broad Scientific Participation • Inter-disciplinary Governance• Participation by Int’l Organisations• Experts Committee, Ethics Committee
Why Public-Private Partnership?
• Fast• Agile• Simple• Flexible• Responsive• Non-political• Independent• New sources of funding
Why Geneva?
• International city, neutral country, trusted • Science literate, educational infrastructure• Proximity to global policy bodies:
UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF WHO, UNHCR, ICRC
WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU
• Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities
ICES Funding
• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private
- overflow capacity for national and regional centres- development of nextgen integrated climate/Earth models
• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, and 1/3 products and services, such as:
- test bed for large scale construction projects- disaster risk management
- industry specific services- policy-making support- decision support- ‘what if’ scenarios- geoengineering
ICES Foundation MembersBoard members:Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer
Bankers: UBS
Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers
Expert Committee:Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMOProf. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva Director, Institute for Environmental SciencesProf. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng. Ecole Polytechnique Federal LausanneDr. Michael Rast Head of Programme Planning Office Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes European Space Agency
Ethics Committee: tba
Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.
Recent Major Natural Disasters Date Country Lives Lost Cause
April-May 2010 Iceland - volcanic ash cloud
April 2010 China 2000+ 6.9 quake
April 2010 Brazil 200+ rain, mudslides
March 2010 Uganda 350+ rain, mudslides
Feb 2010 France 50+ tempest, sea walls
Feb 2010 Chile 700+ 8.8 quake, tsunami
Jan 2010 Haiti 250,000+ 7.0 quake
April 2009 Italy 300+ 6.3 quake
Feb 2009 Australia 250+ bushfires
May 2008 China 70,000+ 8.0 quake
Aug 2005 USA 1,800+ hurricane, levees
Dec 2004 Indonesia 225,000+ 9.3 quake, tsunami
Aug 2003 Europe 30,000+ heat wave
The Father of Modern Meteorology
Before the Age of ComputingIn 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British
mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers
to sit in tiers around the interior circumference of a giant globe.
ICES and Society
•Research•Integration
•Development•Discovery & Innovation
•Communications•Teaching•Training
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTHSYSTEM
CLIMATE & WEATHER
SOCIALSYSTEMS
SOLARSYSTEM
ICES in a Nutshell• Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates
climate, weather, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic sciences
• Next-generation modelling and simulation techniques• Support for national & regional climate centres• Teaching, training, capacity building• Decision support, communications• Dedicated supercomputing• Global networking• Visual intensity
~200 professionals including seconded experts
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Early 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
Late 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Present Day
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
Early 2010s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
DynamicVegetation
AtmosphericChemistry
Weather
Climate Change
ClimateVariability
Extending Weather & Climate Observations
Evolution of Forecasting Accuracy
from ECMWF
Weather & Climate Communities(A Convergence of Methodologies)
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days
ECMWF today: 5~10 days Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level
• Climate modelling: WCRP today: 100~1000 years
Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level
• The 10-year Challenge: Seasonal to inter-annual predictions
Global to regional to local forecastingCoarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolutionExtreme weather early warning
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