the potential and limits of foresight/ futures …referat stationare altenhilfe [1] paracelsus med...

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D r . K e r s t i n C u h l s

F r a u n h o f e r I n s t i t u t e f o r S y s t e m s a n d I n n o v a t i o n R e s e a r c h

THE POTENTIAL AND LIMITS OF FORESIGHT/ FUTURES RESEARCH

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1. Chances

2. Limits

3. Education

4. Ask the right questions!

Agenda

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What i s Fores ight? Our unders tanding

Foresight is the

structured debate

about complex futures

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Fores ight

Foresight is the

structured debate

about complex futures

structured: systematic approach by applying methods of futures research, science-based, based on new theories of futures research

structured debate: interaction of relevant actors, active preparation for the future or different futures, orientation towards shaping the future

complex: consideration of systemic interdependencies, holistic view

futures: open view on different paths into the future, thinking in alternatives

long- and medium-term view

no planning, but a step on the way to planning (strategic foresight)

no prediction

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Systemat ic Exp lorat ion of D i fferent Futures (Futures Research def in i t ion)

present possible future(s)

desirable future

probable future(s)

vision

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Zukunftsforschung (Freie Universität Berlin):

Zukunftsforschung beschäftigt sich mit möglichen, wahrscheinlichen und wünschbaren zukünftigen Entwicklungen. Denn auch wenn sich die Zukunft nicht vorhersehen lässt, zeichnen sich doch schon heute wichtige Entwicklungsstrukturen in ihren Grundzügen ab. Die Leitplanken des Möglichen, Wahrscheinlichen und Wünschenswerten sind in diesem Sinn durch wissenschaftliche Verfahren und im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs bestimmbar. Dies ist die Aufgabe der Zukunftsforschung.

Futures Research deals with possible, probable and desirable future developments. Even if the future cannot be predicted, major development emerge already today in their basics. The guardrails of the possible, probable and desirable can be determined in this sense by scientific methods and in social discourses. This is the task of future research.

Futures Research

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Phases of Fores ight

1. Stocktaking

(diagnosis phase)

2. Outlook

(explorative phase )

3. Judgement

(assessment phase)

4. Making Choices

(selection phase)

5. Outcomes/ Action

(implementation phase)

Results

Results

Results

Results Results

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Phases of Fores ight – adapted to EFFLA

Results

Results

Results

Results Results

1. Strategic

Intelligence

2. Sense-

Making

3. Selecting

Priorities

4. Implementation

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T ime Hor izon

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Fores ight : D i fferent methods address d i fferent quest ions

present

probable futures

Preferred futures

Possible futures

Visions Where do we want to go?

What may happen?

What is the potential of the present?

How to get there?...

How to be prepared?...

What are our possibilities and choices?

Where are we now?

What are chances?

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Chances

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T ime Hor izon

from

perspectives

different

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for future developments

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use creativity methods

http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http://thelucidplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/creativity.jpg&imgrefurl=http://thelucidplanet.com/riding-your-flow-8-steps-for-enhancing-your-creativity-and-productivity/&h=1536&w=1536&tbnid=s3TJLJqKfUaclM:&zoom=1&tbnh=122&tbnw=122&usg=__Cz1xwzbqAkg3PH9WhhDHPhG2Xek=&docid=I7ESwuWtvhhrxM

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emsaal.itcilo.org

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trends: ongoing, existing, but often overlooked

what is new – for you? Others may already know it…

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Limits

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Family Robot Jibo (myjibo.com) http://www.blickamabend.ch/digital/ bald-realitaet-der-soziale-roboter-fuer- zuhause-id2995202.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Honda_ASIMO.jpg#file

Honda ASIMO

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binfind.com

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Major limit

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• often: a lot of objectives • sometimes: even contradictory • Hidden Agendas

impactlearning.com

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forbes.com

photo: Cuhls

ALTERNSFORSCHUNG SOCIETYANDAGING

UnivHeidelberg

[9]

UnivBremen

[6]

UnivMunich

[6]

UnivGottingen

[5]

UnivRostock

[5]Charite

UnivMed

Berlin[4]

TechUniv

Munich[4]

MaxPlanck

InstDemog

Res[4]

HumboldtUniv[3]

UnivBonn[3]

UnivErlangenNurnberg

[3]

UnivJena[3]

UnivMainz

[3]

FreeUniv

Berlin[2]

MaxPlanck

InstMedRes[2]

UnivWurzburg

[2]

UnivZurich

[2]

NBER[2]

DIAL[2]

SiemensAG[2]

TechUniv

Berlin[2]

TUKaiserslautern

[2] UnivDusseldorf

[2]

UnivFreiburg

[2]UnivHalle

Wittenberg[2]

UnivHamburg

[2]

UnivKarlsruhe

[2]

UnivKlinikumTubingen

[2]

UnivKonstanz

[2]

UnivMannheim

[2]

UnivMarburg

[2]

UnivRegensburg

[2]

FraunhoferIZM[2]

UnivKlinikumFreiburg

[1]

UnivKansas

[1]

KerckhoffInst[1]

UnivHelsinki

[1]

JointInstNuclRes[1]

CRC[1]

JenLabGmbH

[1]

UnivGothenburg

[1]

ISS[1]

UnivFlorence

[1]

UnivDortmund

[1]

UnivCopenhagen

Hosp[1]

IntevatGmbH

[1]

UnivClin

Munster[1]

UnivCardiffWales

[1]

UnivCalifSan

Francisco[1]

UnivBundeswehr

Munchen[1]

InstStudyLabor

[1]

EvangelHeimstiftung

TheolEth[1]

UnivAugenklin

Bonn[1]

UnivArizona

[1]

UnivAlbertoHurtado

[1]

UnileverCorpRes[1]

IFAM[1]

TsingHuaUniv[1]

HuddingeUnivHosp

[1]

DukeUniv[1]

SyrianCtr

TobaccoStudies

[1]

SocialSciResCtr[1]

ShellSolarGmbH

[1]

SERIDAServRegInvest

DesarrolloAgroalimentar

[1]

SachsInd

Museum[1]

ReferatStationareAltenhilfe

[1]

ParacelsusMedUniv[1]

OttoVon

GuerickeUniv[1]

NorfolkNorwich

UnivHosp

[1]

NIKHEF[1]

NewYorkBloodCtr[1]

NestlePurina

PetCareCo[1]

GermanAerosp

Ctr[1]

NatlInst

StandTechnol

[1]

NatlBurEconRes[1]

MuseeNatlHistNat[1]

MicrodropTechnol

Muehlenweg143[1]

MetalorTechnol

SA[1]

MedUniv

Lubeck[1]

ArbeiterErsatzkassen

VerbandEV[1]

DalianUniv

Technol[1]

MaxPlanck

InstEvolutionaryAnthropol

[1]

MaxPlanck

InstDemographic

Res[1]

CurtinUniv

Technol[1]

MassachusettsGenHosp

[1]

MassGenInst

NeurodegeneratDis[1]

LohmannBirkner

HlthCare

ConsultingGmbH

[1]

LMUMunchen

[1]

LeibnizInst

FreshwaterEcol

InlandFisheries

[1]

LCGBiosci

[1]

UnivStuttgart

[1]

VetPathol

Associates[1]

KlinikumGrosshadern

[1]

KarlFranzens

UnivGraz[1]

UnivTexas

[1]

AlbertEinstein

CollMed[1]

IRD[1]

IntUniv

Bremen[1]

InstTheoret

ExptPhys[1]

ClinUrol

RheinRuhr[1]

InstHigh

EnergyPhys[1]

ETH[1]

EssenUniv[1]

VerbandAngestellten

KrankenkassenEV[1]

ChemnitzUniv

Technol[1]

AuburnUniv[1]

HospSantaMaria

[1]

HopLariboisiere

[1]

HarvardUniv[1]

HahnMeitner

InstBerlinGmbH

[1]

GSF[1]

GESifoGmbH

[1]

DessauMedCtr[1]

GeorgetownUniv[1]

BocconiUniv[1]

CtrSuisseRechSci[1]

FraunhoferInst

BiomedTechnol

[1]

CtrGenomRegulat

[1]

UnivS

BohemiaCeske

Budejovice[1]

VrijeUniv

Amsterdam[1]

UnivTubingen

[1]

AcadSci

CzechRepublic

[1]

AxaronBiosci

[1]

UnivUtrecht

[1]

UnivOsnabruck

[1]

MaxPlanck

InstMetRes[1]

YamanashiMedUniv[1]

DIWBERLIN

[1]

DIW[1]

ArgonneNatlLab[1]

DESY[1]

AmaxaGmbH

[1]

UnivMemphis

[1]

UnivNewcastle

[1]UnivOslo[1]

UnivUtah[1]

UnivPeshawar

[1]

MatResInst[1]

UnivRoma

LaSapienza

[1]

UnivMissouri

[1]

UnivNew

Orleans[1]

UnivNewcastle

UponTyne[1]

UnivPenn[1]

UnivKlinikumMunster

[1]

UnivMunster

[1]

UnivOviedo

[1]

from BMBF Foresight Cycle I

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- wrong est imations: Who knows i f we are

r ight? When we know, it i s sometimes to

late… path dependencies…

- even the best scient ists overest imate

their results (see Delphi surveys)

- see Kahnemann/ Tversky

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Future topics evaluated for

14 start fields

Topics, actors, recommended

action

in 7 new forms of future fields

2nd report

November 2007

%

1st report

Research

Workshop of

experts

Monitoring 1st

wave

Online

survey

Analysis of

potential:

Actors and topics

3rd report

%

%

% % % %

% % % %

% %

%

% %

%

% % %

% %

%

in 14 start

fields

Differentiated

evaluation

Synopsis of

researches

Monitoring 2nd

wave

… … …

Selection according

to criteria, re-

clustering

June 2009

%

%

%

%

%

%

… … …

… … …

… … …

… … …

… … …

… … …

… … …

Mapping of future

topics

First re-clustering

Topic searches BMBF Foresight

we have to keep it simple

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We do not ask what we do not know…

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and white spots…

schnittpunkt2012.blogspot.com

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Additional aspects from more recent foresight theory

Confirming trend bias

Overconfidence

Over-prediction

“end of history illusion”

Filters cannot be eliminated but opened up

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Education/ Training/ Awareness-rais ing/

Learn Foresight and understand its l imits

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Fores ight was concept iona l i sed to s tep back/ out of the da i l y bus iness

And think imagine dream

consider barriers consider chances…

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And change something make it happen

within your limits!

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Sorry

Foresight is nothing for couch potatoes or Business As Usual

Activity needed

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We cannot so lve a l l prob lems with Fores ight / Futures Research

Ask the right questions!

…and ask the question right…

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Anthropomimetischer Robotertorso - ECCEROBOT

Have a bright future!

For further information: Dr. Kerstin Cuhls kerstin.cuhls@isi.fraunhofer.de