the perfect storm:

The perfect storm:Are your clients prepared for the

longevity revolution?

Agenda• The perfect storm

• Life expectancy past and present

• Medical advances

• Life expectancy in future

• More than ever, a long term business

• Our solution

The blurring line between science and science-fiction

The perfect storm• Exponential advances in

Biotechnology Nanotechnology Robotics and AI

• Transformative demographic shift as baby boomers enter retirement

The law of accelerating returns

The law of accelerating returns• First life forms took billions of years to evolve

• First technological steps - sharp edges, fire, the wheel - took tens of thousands of years

• 19th century saw more change than in previous 9 centuries

• The first 20 years of 20th century saw more change than entire 19th century

• The internet did not exist barely a decade ago

• Rate of progress now doubling every decade

Ray Kurzweil, Inventor and Futurist

“We won't experience 100 years of technological advance in the 21st

century; we will witness in the order of 20 000 years of progress

(by today's rate)”

Life expectancy past and present

Historic life expectancy• In the 20s a thousand years ago

• 37 in 1800

• Now pushing 80

• Life expectancy at birth more than doubled over the last 200 years

Life expectancy explained• The expected number of life years remaining at a

specific age

• Not just one number Life expectancy at birth vs. age 65 Varies between different countries General vs. insured population

• Just an average

Frequency distribution

Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

Frequency distribution

Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

Frequency distribution

Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

Frequency distribution

Assumptions:Male aged 40, non-smoker, best rates.

Medical advances

Medical advances timeline

Modern medicine

420 BC

ID smallpox

910 1553 1590 1796 1816

Lung circulation

Microscope

Vaccination

Stethoscope

1st blood transfusion

1818 1870

Germ theory

1895

X-rays

1899

Aspirin

1842

Anesthesia

Medical advances timeline

Blood types

1901

Discovery of vitamins

1906 1907 1922 1928 1936

Blood transfusion

Insulin

Penicillin

Lobotomy

Pacemaker & polio vaccine

1952 1954

Kidney transplant

1963

Lung and liver transplant

1967

Heart transplant

1953

DNA discovered

Medical advances timeline

CT scanner

1971

MRI scanner

1980 1982 1996 1998 2003

1st artificial heart

Dolly

New cancer drugs

Human genome

Stem cells from skin cells

2007 2008

Robotic surgery

2010

1st face transplant

2010

1st artificial life

A peek into the future• Emerging technologies

• A few controversial possibilities

• In our lifetime?

• Prepare to be amazed!

“I spend most of my time assuming the world is not ready for the technology revolution that will be happening to them soon”

Eric Schmidt, Chairman of Google

Stem cell technology• Growing stem cells in a

lab• Disease-in-a-dish• Dead brain cells?

Just replace them• Would you like to order a

liver, a heart?

Nanotechnology• Ferry across the blood-brain barrier

• Creating organic and synthetic nanoparticles

• Robots in your bloodstream

Gotcha!

Genetics• Human genome project

• Gene therapy

• DNA maintenance

• Personalised treatment

Should I buy a pizza or have my genome sequenced today?

Telemedicine• A one-hour cancer detector on your phone. No

seriously

• How Intel and GE will monitor your grandma

• Beam me up Dr. Scotty – holograms in healthcare

Cisco's virtual doctor will see you now.

Assistive devices• The mouse’s days are numbered – control your laptop

with your eyes

• Speak and I shall obey – voice commands for your home appliances

• Brain-computer interfaces

Neurons and computers: they mix!

Amanda Boxtel, who has been in a wheelchair for 19 years, gets up

and walk across a stage with the help of an exoskeleton.

Dave MacCalman, a New Zealand quadriplegic, takes his first steps in

more than 30 years.

Artificial intelligence• They beat us in chess

• Then they beat us in a quiz game

• Now they are taking on healthcare

• The next frontier?

IBM’s Watson trouncing the competition in

Jeopardy

The fountain of youth• Slowing down aging

• Reverse and ultimately prevent aging?

• Homo Evolutis

My, what long telomeres you have!

Life expectancy in future

Exponential increase in life expectancy?

The pace of change has accelerated

Life expectancy at retirement has probably changed more in the past 10 years than in the previous

100 years

See how life expectancy is bound to increase even when taking a

conservative, linear view

Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

Impact of 1.5% mortality improvement

What happens if life expectancy continues to increase at an

exponential rate?

More than ever a long-term business

Changing financial planning landscape

Death

SavingDisability & illness

Financial planning implications• Assumed age at death in FNA?

• Assumed retirement age?

• Expiry age of risk benefits?

• How do you provide for living a long but costly life with an illness?

• How do you ensure sustainable premiums?

Changing financial planning landscape

Death

SavingDisability & illness Longevity

Our solutions

Our solutions• Some medical advances are to avoid disease

• Other advances are to aid people with disease

• Risk of outliving capital applies to both

Our solutions• Solutions for clients who do not claim

Reward for saving and protecting with us Claim event for surviving to age 80

• Solutions for clients who claim Point one above, plus Critical illness solution that keeps on paying Disability benefits that protect until age 100

Conclusion• Life expectancy has increased significantly

• Mind-boggling medical advances

• How much longer are we going to live?

• Profound implications for financial planning

• The solution