the indian voter in 2014bihar 40% punjab 43% haryana 25% uar pradesh 33% gujarat 41% andhra pradesh...

TheIndianVoterin2014

DeveshKapurNeelanjanSircarMilanVaishnav

March25,2014

The“LokSurveys”

•  Why?–  TounderstandthesocialandpoliBcalreconfiguraBonstakingplaceacrossIndiatoday

•  What?–  MulB‐year,panelsurveyof65,000households

•  How?–  Piggy‐backoffquarterlyCMIE“ConsumerPyramids”survey

•  When?–  Biannually

Surveycalendar

Q4‐2013:

Pre‐elecBonsurvey

Q1‐2014:

“AspiraBons&AnxieBes”

Q3‐2014:

Post‐elecBonsurvey

Keyfindings

•  Theelectoralhorse‐race

•  FivemythsabouttheIndianvoter?–  RegionalparBesaresurging–  Goodeconomics≠goodpoliBcs–  VotersarefedupwithdynasBes

–  LackofinformaBonbreedscriminality–  Voteyourcaste,notcastyourvote

Theelectoralhorse‐race

TheboFomline

EsBmated2014voteshare*

UPA 23%

NDA 31%

*LokSurveyconductedbetweenOct‐Dec2013

TheboFomline

CSDS(7/2013)

Lok(4Q/2013)

CSDS(1/2014)

HT‐Cvoter(1/2014)

Times‐Cvoter(1/2014)

ABP‐Nielsen(2/2014)

UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23%

NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31%

BigGainsforNDA

*Note:LokSurvey;MaharashtraandPunjabprojecBonsincludecoaliBonpartners

8%12%

11%15%

7%11%

6%9%

0%‐7%

13%5%

9%23%

0%

WBUPTNRAJPUNORIMPMAHKERKARHARGUJCTGBIHAP

BigLossesforUPA

*LokSurvey;MaharashtraandKeralaincludecoaliBonpartners

4%‐9%

‐3%‐10%

‐8%0%

‐9%‐7%

‐4%1%

‐22%‐6%

‐13%9%

‐22%

WBUPTNRAJPUNORIMP

MAHKERKARHARGUJCTGBIHAP

Urban‐ruraldifferences

24%22% 23% 24%

28%

33%

27%

32%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Ruralilliterate Ruralliterate Urbanilliterate Urbanliterate

UPA NDA

Voteshare(%

)

Source:LokFoundaBon

Socialbasesofsupport

19% 21% 21%

31%35%

42%

35%

25%23%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

UpperCaste OBC SC ST Muslims

UPA NDA

Voteshare(%

)

Source:LokFoundaBon

Actualseatsharewilldependon:

•  Campaigneffects

•  Candidates

•  Alliances

1.Areregionalpar4esrising?

RelaTveVoteShareInIndia’sNaTonalElecTons

Source:ElecBonCommissionofIndia

All‐IndiavoteshareesTmates

CSDS(7/2013)

Lok(4Q/2013)

CSDS(1/2014)

HT‐Cvoter(1/2014)

Times‐Cvoter(1/2014)

ABP‐Nielsen(2/2014)

UPA 29% 23% 28% 23% 22% 23%

NDA 29% 31% 36% 34% 36% 31%

UPA+NDA 58% 54% 54% 57% 58% 54%

Reversaloffortune?

31.5

2321.5

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009(actual) 2014(projected)*

UPA NDA

Voteshare(%

)

Source:LokFoundaBon

2.Goodeconomics≠goodpoli4cs

Theeconomydominates

25%

21%

18%

14%

8% 7%5%

3%

EconomicGrowth

CorrupBon InflaBon PersonalIncome

LawandOrder

AccesstoGovt

Benefits

Leadership IdenBty

Source:LokFoundaBon

Growth:largestate‐levelvariaTon%ofrespo

nden

tsinflu

encedbygrowth 43% 43%

41%38%

32% 31%28%

22%21% 20%

19%17%

13%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

CTG PUN GUJ WB RAJ TN KER KAR AP MP HAR MAH UP BIH

Source:LokFoundaBon

TopelecTonissue,bystate

Kerala 43% Chhaosgarh 43% Maharashtra 29%

Bihar 40% Punjab 43% Haryana 25%

UparPradesh 33% Gujarat 41%

AndhraPradesh 26% WestBengal 38%MadhyaPradesh 25% Rajasthan 32%

TamilNadu 31%

Karnataka 22%

CorrupBon Economicgrowth InflaBon/pricerise

Source:LokFoundaBon

AreMuslimvotersdifferent?

9%

14%

21%

3%

21%

7%4%

22%

7%

14%

21%

3%

18%

8%

5%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

AccesstoGovt

PersonalIncome

CorrupBon IdenBty InflaBon LawandOrder

Leadership EconomicGrowth

Muslims All‐India

Source:LokFoundaBon

Bharatvs.India?

9%

16%

19%

2%

19%

8%

4%

23%

5%

12%

23%

4%

17%

6% 6%

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

AccesstoGovt

PersonalIncome

CorrupBon IdenBty InflaBon LawandOrder

LeadershipEconomicGrowth

rural urban

Source:LokFoundaBon

3.Arevotersfedupwithdynas4es?

DynasTcismamongMPs

20%

80%

2004

DynasBcBes

NodynasBcBes

29%

71%

2009

DynasBcBes

NodynasBcBes

Source:KanchanChandraandAnjaliThomasBohlken

DynasTcpreference?

54

46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

No Yes

%prefertovotefordynasBccand

idate

Source:LokFoundaBon

WhyvoterspreferdynasTes

Reason Percent

Better at doing politics because it is their occupation

45%

Likely to succeed because of greater exposure to politics 40%

Makes it easier to deliver services 15%

Source:LokFoundaBon

4.Lackofinforma4onbreedscriminality

Lawmakersandlaw‐breakers?

Source:Vaishnav(2014)

%ofLokSabhaM

embe

rsofP

arliamen

t

15%

19%

24%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2009

Seriouscharge Minorcharge

Uncoveringsupportforcriminalcandidates

26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

DirectQuesBon%willingtovoteforcand

idatewith

seriouscharges

Source:LokFoundaBon

HOWMANYofthefollowingcandidatestroubleyou?

ControlGroup

1.  WealthyCandidate2.  PoorCandidate3.  IndependentCandidate

ExperimentalGroup

1.  WealthyCandidate2.  PoorCandidate3.  IndependentCandidate

HOWMANYofthefollowingcandidatestroubleyou?

ControlGroup

1.  WealthyCandidate2.  PoorCandidate3.  IndependentCandidate

ExperimentalGroup

1.  WealthyCandidate2.  PoorCandidate3.  IndependentCandidate4.  Candidatewithserious

criminalcharges

Uncoveringsupportforcriminalcandidates

48%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

ListExperiment DirectQuesBon%willingtovoteforcand

idatewith

seriouscharges

Source:LokFoundaBon

Supportvs.prevalence

AP

BIH

CTG

GUJ

HAR

KAR

KER

MAH

MP

ORI

PUN

RAJTN UP

WB

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Supp

ortforcan

dida

tes

withseriou

scharges

2009CandidateswithseriouscriminalchargesSource:LokFoundaBon;ADR

5.Voteyourcaste,notcastyourvote

IdenTtyranks8/8

25%

21%

18%

14%

8% 7%5%

3%

EconomicGrowth

CorrupBon InflaBon PersonalIncome

LawandOrder

AccesstoGovt

Benefits

Leadership IdenBty

Source:LokFoundaBon

Casteandvotechoice46%

36%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Co‐ethnicaffinity Ethnicbias

%ofrespo

nden

tsdem

onstraBn

g“bias”

Source:LokFoundaBon

HOWMANYstatementstroubleyou?

ControlGroup

•  Acorruptcandidatewins•  Anuneducatedcandidate

wins

•  Aneducatedcandidatewins

ExperimentalGroup

•  Acorruptcandidatewins•  Anuneducatedcandidate

wins

•  Aneducatedcandidatewins•  An[UpperCaste/OBC/SC]

candidatewins

UncoveringcastediscriminaTon

36%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ethnicbias(direct) Ethnicbias(list)

%ofrespo

nden

tsdem

onstraBn

g“bias”

Source:LokFoundaBon

IdenTtypredictsvotechoice,notelectoraloutcomes

26%

42%

25%

35%

17%

25%23% 23%

9%12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2009

2014

2009

2014

2009

2014

2009

2014

2009

2014

UpperCaste OBC SC ST Muslim

%ofrespo

nden

tsvoB

ngfo

rNDA

Source:LokFoundaBon

Conclusion

•  Indiansocietyischangingand,withit,thepreferencesofIndianvoters

•  WhilethemajorityofIndiaremainsrural,ruralIndiaisincreasinglyshapedbyurbansensibiliBes–  Classicrural‐urbandivideisgeongblurred

•  SocialbiasconBnuestobeendemicinIndia–  However,thesebiasesaffectthelevelsofpoliBcal

supportbasedonsocialidenBBes,notchanges

Conclusion(cont’d)

•  ThechangesinvoBngbehaviorarebeingdrivenmainlybyeconomicfactorsandgovernance

•  ThiselecBonisclearlyavoteforchange.PotenBallyitisapivotalelecBonthatcouldfundamentallyaffectIndia'strajectory

•  …ButwewillnotreallynotknowthatunBlmid‐May!

Thankyou

Web: hpp://indiaintransiBon.com

hpp://carnegieendowment.org

Twiper: @MilanV

@NeelanjanSircar

Print: SundayTimesofIndia

“IndianVoter:InsideandOut”