the future of news(papers)
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Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Future of News(papers)A review of business models,
experiments, innovations, and more
Seth C. LewisSchool of Journalism, UT-Austin
seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Overview
• State of the newspaper industry• Fundamental shift from print to online• Emerging forms of journalism• But, wait— show me the money!– Are these really profitable business models?– How should we restructure the newsroom?– Seeing a post-print future
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
State of theNews(paper) Industry
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
In a word …
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
UGLY
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Problem 1: Circulation
• For U.S. dailies, 50M — lowest level since 1946
• But population has doubled since then• So, newspaper penetration is half what it was– Then: 36 of 100 American adults bought paper– Today: 18 of 100
• Newspaper circulation should be 92 million
Newspaper circulation, revenue and market share figures from Alan Mutter, Jeff Jarvis, PEJ
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Falling for decades …
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
… but spiraling since 2003
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Problem 2: Revenue
• 2007: steepest decline in 60 years• Down 9.4% to $42 billion• “If you liked 2007, you’re going to love 2008”• Online salvation? Not yet …– Online ad revenue accounts for 7.5% of total
revenue, but declined by 14% in Q1-Q2 2008
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Problem 3: Market Value
• Overall– 11 top public newspaper companies down 50%
(or $50 billion!) since 2004
• McClatchy: down 95% since 2005• Lee: down 92% since 2004• NYTimes: down 75% since 2002• Gannett: down 65% since 2004• Gatehouse: virtually wiped out — down 97%
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Newsroom jobs lost
2007: 2,185
2008: 8,118 so far
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
What’s happening this week
• Christian Science Monitor drops print
• Gannett: 10% workfoce cut
• More circulation woes (’07 to ‘08)– Avg: -5%– Atlanta: -13%!
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“The world needs journalism now more than ever.
We just don’t need paper.”
— NYTimes.com reader
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Fundamental shift:analog --> digital
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Economics of print to online
• Guiding principle: Rational choice theory– Vin Crosbie: It’s not just the Internet that’s killing
newspapers– Rather, it’s that choice has proliferated by a
magnitude of Google
• Information surplus (“data smog”)• Newspapers vs. all things interesting online
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Disrupting the news model
• Owned and controlled
• Centralized• One size fits all• One-way• “Perfection” as the
standard packageSource: Jeff Jarvis
• Never starts, never ends
• Transparency• Input and
collaboration• Powered by links• Enables networks
Product Process
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Disrupting the news model
See Jeff Jarvis
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
New models for news
• Pros …– Hyperlocal coverage– Link model– Non-profit ventures– Narrow and deep
• Amateurs …– Citizen journalism– Crowdsourcing
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Bringing In the User:Emerging Forms of Journalism
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
What is user-generated content?
• Digital media content created and distributed by end-users formerly known as the audience
• Better put, it’s “stuff from us” • Takes many forms:– Blogs– Wikis– Social networking– Visual communication sharing (Flickr, YouTube)– And much more
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
UGC and Web 2.0: key characteristics
• Architecture: Web is the platform; distributed, open-source feel to the software
• Participation: End-users play key role in creating, rating and debating content
• Network effects: Value added as people use it• Dynamic content: Metadata, mashups, etc.• Rich user interface• Collectivity: The crowd knows more than any one
person individually
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Creating platforms, not content
• Now, it’s all about open — open-source, open standards, open to everyone. No gates.
• Web publishers create platforms and let users create the content
• From one-way to multi-way communication• From sealed-off information silos to empty
warehouses waiting to be filled with “stuff”
Source: Mark Briggs, “Journalism 2.0”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Rise of citizen media
• “In 2006, citizens made it clear that they wanted a voice. In 2007, more ways of doing that began to emerge and that voice became stronger. Now, 2008 looks to be the year the mainstream press tries to lure citizens toward creating the content within their own outlets.”
– State of the News Media 2008
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Example 1: Citizen Journalism
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.eduJay Rosen, 2008
Jay Rosen’s definition
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
“When the people formerly known as the audience employ the press tools they have in their possession to inform one another, that’s citizen journalism.”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
How does this work in practice?
• You write about a city council meeting on your blog
• Capture eyewitness moment with your digital camera and post to a news site
• Grab video of something newsy and post to YouTube
• In other words …– Create, augment, or fact-check media on their
own or in collaboration with others
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
How online news sites use citizen-J
Pros in charge Amateur control
Opening up to comments
Add-on reporter
Citizen bloghouse
Stand-alone citizen site; minimal editing
Hybrid: pro + citizen
Wiki-style
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Example 2: Crowdsourcing
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Key principles
• The crowd is dispersed• The crowd has a short attention span• The crowd is full of specialists• The crowd produces mostly crap• The crowd finds the best stuff
Source: “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe (2006)
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Crowdsourcing and Journalism
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Crowdsourcing, in journalism, is the use of a large group of readers to report a news story. It differs from traditional reporting in that the information collected is gathered not manually, by a reporter or team of reporters, but through some automated agent, such as a website.
Source: Robert Niles
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
A spectrum of input
• From the simple …– Reading documents (a la Dallas Morning News case)– Sending in photos (of polling places, for instance)
• … To the more challenging …– Researching and writing articles
• The point– The collective efforts of non-specialists can add up to
more than one expert individual– Dan Gillmor: “my readers know more than I do”
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
How it works
• Lend us your eyes• Help us gather data• Submit your photos/videos• The keys …– Keep it simple– Keep it directed– Provide an easy, automated interface
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Lending Us Your Eyes
• Dallas Morning News and the JFK files– “Given the volume, we haven't been able to review
most of the files. That's why were calling on you. Here's your chance to review never-seen-before materials related to the JFK assassination.”
• RocDocs– “We’re inviting you to help us be watchdogs”
• Work of TPM Muckraker
(Hat tip: JP Digital Digest)
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Gathering ‘everyday’ info
• WNYC– “Are you being gouged?”– Gas-guzzlers on the street
• GasBuddy• Problems at polling stations in Cincy?
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
And more
• Full articles written by users …– Example: NowPublic
• … or edited by users– Example: Wikinews
• Beyond journalism– Google Image Labeler– Amazon Mechanical Turk
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Like citizen journalism, but …
• … crowdsourcing is easier– Users are given bite-sized tasks to accomplish– Time commitment can be small
• Unlike more traditional notions of “citizen journalism,” crowdsourcing does not ask readers to become anything more than what they’ve always been: eyewitnesses to their daily lives.
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Is crowdsourcing the future?
• “The failure of one citizen journalism Web business after another this year ought to be showing news publishers that a business model based on readers doing reporters’ jobs for free isn’t working.” (Robert Niles)
• But be warned …– Open-source journalism is tough– You have get the division of labor just right
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Show me the money!(or, can any of these ventures pay for themselves?)
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Short answer:
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Not yet.
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Let’s assume current conditions continue
(same biz model, etc.)
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Crossing the Chasm:From Print to Online Revenue
“It’s going to be really bloody, incredibly devastating. And I think
there are going to be a lot of major metros that don’t make it.”
— Mark Potts, recoveringjournalist.com
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Crossing the Chasm
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Crossing the Chasm
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Is there hope in innovation?
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Future Business Models
• New cost structures– Blow up the newsroom as we know it– Focus on efficiency, lowering fixed costs
• Adopt the network model– For ads and news content– Do what you do best, and link to the rest
• Public/non-profit financing• New “side-door” revenue (via data, services)
— See Jeff Jarvis’ presentation
Seth Lewis • seth.lewis@mail.utexas.edu
Or, be like Google
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