the cuban-american community & the new u.s.- cuba relations · cuban migration to the u.s....

The Cuban-American Community & the New U.S.-

Cuba Relations

Jorge DuanyCuban Research Institute

Florida International University

Main ObjectivesTrace development of Cuban exodus since 1959

Examine similarities & differences among migrant waves

Analyze diverse views about U.S. policy toward Cuba

Assess Cuban-American contributions to Cuba’s development

The Postrevolutionary Exodus

Cuban Migration to the U.S. after 1960 (Thousands)

0

100

200

300

1960–69 1970–79 1980–89 1990–99 2000–9

Population of Cuban Origin in the U.S. (Millions)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1960 1980 2000 2014

Five Main Migrant Waves

Golden Exiles (1959–62)• 248,070

persons

Freedom Flights (1965–73)• 260,561

persons

Mariel Exodus (1980)• 124,779

persons

BalseroCrisis (1994)• 30,879

persons

Post-Soviet Exodus (1995– )• 549,013

persons

“The Golden Exiles” (1959–62)

Cuban Refugees, 1959–62, & Cuban Population, 1953 (%)

0 15 30 45

Farm

Service

Skilled, semi-skilled, &unskilled

Clerical & sales

Professional & managerial

Cuban refugees Cuban population

Operation Pedro Pan (1960–62)

“Freedom Flights”

(1965–73)

Comparing the First & Second Waves of Cuban Refugees

1959–62 1965–73

Median age at arrival (years) 40.4 40.2

Female (%) 53.9 57.6

White (%) 98 96.9

Born in Havana (%) 62 63.2

High school graduates (%) 36 22

Professional & managerial (%) 37 21

Cuban Adjustment Act (1966)

“The Refuge,” 1967

Resettled Cuban Refugees, 1961–72

New York

New Jersey

California

IllinoisFloridaLouisiana

Massachusetts

Texas

ConnecticutPennsylvania Elsewhere

The Mariel Boatlift (1980)

A Marielito in a Refugee Camp

Comparing 1980 & 1973 Cuban Refugees

1980 1973Median age at arrival (years) 34 40.3Single (%) 42.6 17.1Black or mulatto (%) 12.6 3.1Born in Havana (%) 48.4 41.1Mean number of relatives at arrival 3.1 10.2Average years of education in Cuba 9.1 8.6No knowledge of English (%) 57.4 44.8Professional & managerial in Cuba (%) 14 10Current median earnings per month ($) 523 765

Cuban Migration to the U.S. since 1989 (Thousands)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

The BalseroCrisis (1994)

A Balsero in Miami

“Wet Foot / Dry Foot” Policy (1995)

Cubans Interdicted by U.S. Coast Guard (Thousands)

0

1

2

3

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Cubans Legally Admitted to the U.S. (Thousands)

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Cuban Immigrants & Cuban Population, 2012 (%)

0 15 30 45

Service

Skilled, semi-skilled, &unskilled

Sales & office

Professional, technical, &managerial

Cuban immigrants Cuban population

Recent Legal Changes

New Wave of Cuban Rafters

Undocumented Cuban Migrants (Thousands)

0

1

2

3

4

Oct.2014

Nov.2014

Dec.2014

Jan.2015

Feb.2015

Mar.2015

Florida U.S.-Mexico Border

The “Intransigents”

A Growing Generation Gap

FIU Cuba Poll: Support for Unrestricted Travel to Cuba

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

1995–2014

1981–94

1974–80

1965–73

1959–64

Favor Oppose

FIU Cuba Poll: Support for U.S. Embargo of Cuba

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

1995–2014

1981–94

1974–80

1965–73

1959–64

Favor Oppose

FIU Cuba Poll: Support for Diplomatic Relations with Cuba

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

1995–2014

1981–94

1974–80

1965–73

1959–64

Favor Oppose

After D17?

Bendixen & Amandi: Support for Restoring Diplomatic Ties (%)

44 48

8

5140

9

Agree Disagree Don't Know/NoAnswer

Dec. 2014 Mar. 2015

Reopening Embassies

The Pope’s Visit to Cuba

Reconciliation among Cubans

Sending Money Home

Remittances to Cuba (US$ Billions)

0

1

2

3

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Remittance Agencies & Exchange Houses in Havana

“La Chopin”

Use of Remittances in Cuba, 2015 (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

No AnswerOther

Buy PropertyBusiness Investment

EducationSavingsLuxuries

Everyday Expenses

Means to Finance Small Businesses in Cuba, 2013 (%)

Sales63%

Remittances27%

Savings9%

Family Loans

1%

Self-Employment in Cuba (Thousands)

0

150

300

450

2000 2005 2010 2015

Sending Packages to Cuba

Transnational Trade

Cuban-American Visits to Cuba (Thousands)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Telephone Calls to Cuba (Millions)

0

20

40

60

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Cellular Phones in Cuba

The Future of U.S.-Cuba Relations

Conclusions

Changes in U.S. & Cuban regulations

Cuban-American contributions to Cuban economy

Diverse reactions to restoring U.S.-Cuba diplomatic ties

Five major waves of Cuban migration