telecom services predictions 2011 latin america
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Telecom Services Predictions 2011How to Start the New Decade on the Right Foot in
Latin America
José Roberto Mavignier, Industry Manager
Telecom ServicesTelecom Services
January 28, 2011
Today’s Presenters
Jose Roberto Mavignier, Latin America ICT Industry Manager
Frost & Sullivan
2
Focus Points
I. A Decade in the IndustryI. A Decade in the Industry
II. Revisiting 2010 Predictions
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III. 2011 Predictions
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
Colombia
Brazil
VenezuelaChileArgentina
Mexico
Latin America
Telecom Increased Importance on Latin American Economies
Telecommunications Revenues as % of Country’s GDP
4
0,0%
1,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: World Bank, ITU, Frost&Sullivan
2000 – 2,8% 2009 – 3,0%
2000 – 3,7% 2009 – 4,5%
2000 – 3,5% 2009 – 3,3%
2000 – 2,7% 2009 – 5,2%
2000 – 2,1% 2009 – 2,7%
2000 – 3,3% 2009 – 3,4%
A Look in the Decade: Fixed Telephony’s Rise and Fall
NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS AND LINES PRESENTED GROWTH.
2000 – 21,4 2009 – 24,5
Fixed Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants)
2000 – 17,8 2009 – 21,6 2000 – 21,4 2009 – 20,9
2000 – 18,1 2009 – 17,2 2000 – 12,6 2009 – 17,9 2000 – 10,4 2009 – 24,2
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Sources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan
TRAFFIC AND REVENUES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED.
VAS AND BROADBAND.
COMPETITION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
NEW BUSINESS MODELS.
A Look in the Decade: Mobility Predominance
PENETRATION NEAR TO 1 LINE PER PERSON.
2000 – 17,6 2009 – 126,1
Mobile Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants)
2000 – 13,3 2009 – 90,5 2000 – 22,1 2009 – 96,7
2000 – 5,7 2009 – 91,9 2000 – 14,4 2009 – 77,4 2000 – 22,4 2009 – 104,5
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RAPIDLY EXPANDED COVERAGE.
CLIENT-ACQUISITION SHIFTED TO ARPU INCREASE.
MERGES AND ACQUISITIONS.
CORPORATE APPLICATIONS MARKET RISING.
Sources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan
MOBILE BROADBAND: EMAILS, SOCIAL NETWORKS, MOBILE ADVERTSING, M2M
A Look in the Decade: Datacomm Preparing for the Future
DATACOMM PENETRATION HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY.
IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INFORMATIZATION, MPLS DEPLOYMENT.
TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTION TOOK PLACE.
IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INTERNET USAGE, COST-REDUCTION.
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TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTION TOOK PLACE.
REGIONAL AND NATIONWIDE BACKBONES.
FIBER, DOCSIS 3.0, VDSL, ADSL2+ - RESIDENTIAL MARKET EVOLVING
Revisiting 2010 Predictions
How Were Frost & Sullivan’s Hits and Misses in Latin America?
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2010 Predictions: Hits, Partial Hits and Misses
ULTRA BROADBAND
BROADBAND VAS
MVNOs
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WIMAX
MOBILE MARKETING
2011 Predictions
A Snapshot of Telecom Services Market Trends in
Latin America.
10
Prediction #1: Mobile Payment will Gain Traction
BANKS, CREDIT CARD COMPANIES, ACQUIRES AND OPERATORS
MARKET DEVELOPMENT GAINING MOMENTUM
Oi PAGGO: FIRST SERVICE DEPLOYED IN THE REGION
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IMPORTANT DRIVERS: 3G PENETRATION, PARTNERSHIPS AND JOINT-VENTURE PUSHES, SECURITY
MOBILE BANKING GROWING FAST
NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION MASSIVE PROJECTS
Prediction #2: TV/INTERNET Convergence More Popular
7.3 MILLION TV SETS SOLD IN LATIN AMERICA ON Q2 2010.
GOOGLE TV / APPLE TV / YOU TUBE
IPTV INITIATIVES IN LATIN AMERICA: UNE, TELSUR, MAXCOM, GVT (FIBER, VoD)
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MULTI-PLATFORM CONTENT DELIVERY GAINING TRACTION.
PENDING REGULATORY ACTS MIGHT BE IMPACTING DRIVER
Prediction #3: Telcos Expanding Presence on IT Services
CLOUD COMPUTING KEY GROWTH AREA
SERVICE DEPENDS UPON CONNECTIVITY.
TELCOS HAVE BILLING METHODOLOGY, DATA CENTER CAPABILITY, CAPACITY
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TELCOS GAINING EXPERTISE
LACK OF A MORE COMPLETE PORTFOLIO AND EXPERTISE
GROWING NUMBER OF TELCOS IN THE MARKET
Prediction #4: Government Initiatives Getting Stronger
GOVERNMENT’S ROLE AUGMENTING IN THE REGION
BRAZIL – TAXES EXEMPTION FOR LOWER CLASSES
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT.
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NATIONAL BROADBAND ROLL-OUT PLANS
UNIVERSALIZATION ALSO FOR TELEPHONY
DISTANT, RURAL COMMUNITIES PROJECTS – BRAZIL, VENEZUELA, CHILE
Prediction #5: Ultra Broadband will Ignite the Market
NEW DIGITAL LIFESTYLE.
COMPETITION BEING IMPORTANT DRIVER – ATTACKERS X INCUMBENTS
PRICES WILL START TO SLOWLY DECLINE. - TELEFONICA
BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
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BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS, SUCH AS CONNECTED HOMES, IPTV.
HIGH DEPLOYMENT COSTS, TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES
VENEZUELA AND MEXICO FAR BEHIND.
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for or Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of
your company. (myfrost@frost.com) 1-877-GoFrost (1-877-463-7678)
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth (www.gil-global.com)
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� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep
abreast of innovative growth opportunities
(www.frost.com/news)
Your Feedback is Important to Us
Growth Forecasts?
Competitive Structure?
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
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Emerging Trends?
Strategic Recommendations?
Other?
Please inform us by rating this presentation.
Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies
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For Additional Information
Tatiana Brull
Corporate Communications LA
Marketing Communications Executive (+55 ) 11 3065-8445
tatiana.brull@frost.com
Cecilia Baruel
Sales Director
Brazil
(+55) 11 3065.8444cecilia.baruel@frost.com
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José Roberto Mavignier
Latin America Industry Manager
Information & Communication Technologies
(+55 ) 11 3065-8463
joseroberto.mavignier@frost.com
Fernando Serra
Sales Director
Latin America
(+54) 11 4777-1550
fernando.serra@frost.com
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