telecom services predictions 2011 latin america
DESCRIPTION
An analyst briefing presentation delivered by industry manager Jose Roberto Mavignier.TRANSCRIPT
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Telecom Services Predictions 2011How to Start the New Decade on the Right Foot in
Latin America
José Roberto Mavignier, Industry Manager
Telecom ServicesTelecom Services
January 28, 2011
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Today’s Presenters
Jose Roberto Mavignier, Latin America ICT Industry Manager
Frost & Sullivan
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Focus Points
I. A Decade in the IndustryI. A Decade in the Industry
II. Revisiting 2010 Predictions
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III. 2011 Predictions
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2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
Colombia
Brazil
VenezuelaChileArgentina
Mexico
Latin America
Telecom Increased Importance on Latin American Economies
Telecommunications Revenues as % of Country’s GDP
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0,0%
1,0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: World Bank, ITU, Frost&Sullivan
2000 – 2,8% 2009 – 3,0%
2000 – 3,7% 2009 – 4,5%
2000 – 3,5% 2009 – 3,3%
2000 – 2,7% 2009 – 5,2%
2000 – 2,1% 2009 – 2,7%
2000 – 3,3% 2009 – 3,4%
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A Look in the Decade: Fixed Telephony’s Rise and Fall
NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS AND LINES PRESENTED GROWTH.
2000 – 21,4 2009 – 24,5
Fixed Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants)
2000 – 17,8 2009 – 21,6 2000 – 21,4 2009 – 20,9
2000 – 18,1 2009 – 17,2 2000 – 12,6 2009 – 17,9 2000 – 10,4 2009 – 24,2
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Sources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan
TRAFFIC AND REVENUES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED.
VAS AND BROADBAND.
COMPETITION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
NEW BUSINESS MODELS.
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A Look in the Decade: Mobility Predominance
PENETRATION NEAR TO 1 LINE PER PERSON.
2000 – 17,6 2009 – 126,1
Mobile Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants)
2000 – 13,3 2009 – 90,5 2000 – 22,1 2009 – 96,7
2000 – 5,7 2009 – 91,9 2000 – 14,4 2009 – 77,4 2000 – 22,4 2009 – 104,5
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RAPIDLY EXPANDED COVERAGE.
CLIENT-ACQUISITION SHIFTED TO ARPU INCREASE.
MERGES AND ACQUISITIONS.
CORPORATE APPLICATIONS MARKET RISING.
Sources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan
MOBILE BROADBAND: EMAILS, SOCIAL NETWORKS, MOBILE ADVERTSING, M2M
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A Look in the Decade: Datacomm Preparing for the Future
DATACOMM PENETRATION HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY.
IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INFORMATIZATION, MPLS DEPLOYMENT.
TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTION TOOK PLACE.
IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INTERNET USAGE, COST-REDUCTION.
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TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTION TOOK PLACE.
REGIONAL AND NATIONWIDE BACKBONES.
FIBER, DOCSIS 3.0, VDSL, ADSL2+ - RESIDENTIAL MARKET EVOLVING
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Revisiting 2010 Predictions
How Were Frost & Sullivan’s Hits and Misses in Latin America?
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2010 Predictions: Hits, Partial Hits and Misses
ULTRA BROADBAND
BROADBAND VAS
MVNOs
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WIMAX
MOBILE MARKETING
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2011 Predictions
A Snapshot of Telecom Services Market Trends in
Latin America.
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Prediction #1: Mobile Payment will Gain Traction
BANKS, CREDIT CARD COMPANIES, ACQUIRES AND OPERATORS
MARKET DEVELOPMENT GAINING MOMENTUM
Oi PAGGO: FIRST SERVICE DEPLOYED IN THE REGION
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IMPORTANT DRIVERS: 3G PENETRATION, PARTNERSHIPS AND JOINT-VENTURE PUSHES, SECURITY
MOBILE BANKING GROWING FAST
NEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION MASSIVE PROJECTS
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Prediction #2: TV/INTERNET Convergence More Popular
7.3 MILLION TV SETS SOLD IN LATIN AMERICA ON Q2 2010.
GOOGLE TV / APPLE TV / YOU TUBE
IPTV INITIATIVES IN LATIN AMERICA: UNE, TELSUR, MAXCOM, GVT (FIBER, VoD)
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MULTI-PLATFORM CONTENT DELIVERY GAINING TRACTION.
PENDING REGULATORY ACTS MIGHT BE IMPACTING DRIVER
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Prediction #3: Telcos Expanding Presence on IT Services
CLOUD COMPUTING KEY GROWTH AREA
SERVICE DEPENDS UPON CONNECTIVITY.
TELCOS HAVE BILLING METHODOLOGY, DATA CENTER CAPABILITY, CAPACITY
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TELCOS GAINING EXPERTISE
LACK OF A MORE COMPLETE PORTFOLIO AND EXPERTISE
GROWING NUMBER OF TELCOS IN THE MARKET
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Prediction #4: Government Initiatives Getting Stronger
GOVERNMENT’S ROLE AUGMENTING IN THE REGION
BRAZIL – TAXES EXEMPTION FOR LOWER CLASSES
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT.
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NATIONAL BROADBAND ROLL-OUT PLANS
UNIVERSALIZATION ALSO FOR TELEPHONY
DISTANT, RURAL COMMUNITIES PROJECTS – BRAZIL, VENEZUELA, CHILE
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Prediction #5: Ultra Broadband will Ignite the Market
NEW DIGITAL LIFESTYLE.
COMPETITION BEING IMPORTANT DRIVER – ATTACKERS X INCUMBENTS
PRICES WILL START TO SLOWLY DECLINE. - TELEFONICA
BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
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BUNDLE OF SERVICES.
SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS, SUCH AS CONNECTED HOMES, IPTV.
HIGH DEPLOYMENT COSTS, TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES
VENEZUELA AND MEXICO FAR BEHIND.
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Next Steps
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For Additional Information
Tatiana Brull
Corporate Communications LA
Marketing Communications Executive (+55 ) 11 3065-8445
Cecilia Baruel
Sales Director
Brazil
(+55) 11 [email protected]
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José Roberto Mavignier
Latin America Industry Manager
Information & Communication Technologies
(+55 ) 11 3065-8463
Fernando Serra
Sales Director
Latin America
(+54) 11 4777-1550