tap - trends analysis and projections hav meeting may 2013
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TAP - Trends Analysis and Projections
HAV Meeting May 2013
Agenda• On The Books Hotel data
Meyers Norris Penny (MNP) Updated Reports• Citywide data• TAP Report snapshot• Optimal Business Mix• TAP Report Full
Hotel Data - Business on the Books: Effects of Citywide Conventions on Occupancy
*Source: Vancouver Hotel Business on the Books - MNP
2008: 100 out of 365 Days OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 10%Hotels 300 rooms or less 6%
2009: 65 out of 365 Days OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 9%Hotels 300 rooms or less 5%
2010: 105 out of 365 Days OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 12%Hotels 300 rooms or less 5%
Hotel Data - Business on the Books:Effects of Citywide Conventions on Occupancy
*Source: Vancouver Hotel Business on the Books - MNP
2011: 117 out of 365 Days OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 16%Hotels 300 rooms or less 3%
2012: 97 out of 365 Days OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 12%Hotels 300 rooms or less 6%
AVERAGE 2008 - 2012 OccupancyHotels 300 rooms or more 12%Hotels 300 rooms or less 5%
Hotel Data - Business on the Books:Historical Occupancy
Average Daily Occupancy: 2006 - 2012
% by Actual Date% by Actual Day of the week, Week of the Month
*Source: Vancouver Hotel Business on the Books - MNP
Hotel Data - Business on the Books:Attendance Change for Conventions held in Vancouver
Average Increase from Year Prior: 2004 - 2012
17.5% - in Canada4.4% - in US17.3% - International 10.6% - Average Increase
*Source: Vancouver Hotel Business on the Books - MNP
2013 Daily Forecast Analysis
2014 Daily Forecast Analysis
2013 City Wide Room Nights
January February March April May June July August September October NovemberDecember0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Verbal Definite Room NightsDefinite Room Nights
2014 City Wide Room Nights
January February March April May June July August September October November December0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Verbal Definite Room NightsDefinite Room Nights
2015 City Wide Room Nights
January February March April May June July August September October November December0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Verbal Definite Room NightsDefinite Room Nights
OPTIMAL BUSINESS MIX
2020
WHAT SHOULD BE OUR OPTIMAL BUSINESS MIX?
CONTRACTGROUP
TRA
NSI
ENT
/ IN
DEP
END
ENT
• Comp set, hotel data from STR by segments
• Coalition defines shared goals for 2020
Competitive Set
Canada• Metro and Downtown
• Calgary• Montreal• Ottawa• Toronto• Vancouver
U.S.• Metro and Downtown
• Denver• Los Angeles• Portland• San Diego• San Francisco• Seattle
Destination Performance2007-2012
2007-2012Average Annual Vancouver Calgary Montreal Ottawa Toronto Denver LA Portland San Diego San Fran SeattleOccupancy Group 25% 20% 19% 23% 23% 31% 24% 21% 32% 25% 22% Transient 45% 47% 44% 44% 46% 34% 39% 50% 38% 49% 48% Contract 2% 4% 2% 5% 3% 2% 6% 2% 3% 4% 3% Overall 72% 70% 65% 72% 72% 67% 68% 73% 73% 77% 73%Rate Group $173 $173 $158 $144 $171 $147 $122 $119 $183 $186 $159 Transient $166 $208 $145 $144 $161 $145 $121 $129 $164 $171 $153 Contract $92 $114 $82 $75 $95 $64 $58 $57 $78 $103 $77 Overall $166 $193 $147 $141 $161 $145 $116 $124 $168 $172 $152RevPar Overall $119 $136 $95 $101 $115 $97 $79 $90 $123 $133 $110
CANADA (Downtown) US (Downtown)
Optimal Mix (Draft)2020 TargetsDowntown Metro Downtown Metro
Occupancy Overall 72% 67% 77% 72%
Occupancy by Quarter Q1 62% 60% 68% 65% Q2 79% 72% 83% 77% Q3 86% 80% 88% 83% Q4 61% 58% 67% 64%
Occupancy by Segment Group 25% 22% 27% 24% Transient 45% 43% 48% 46% Contract 2% 2% 2% 2%
ADR (2013 dollars) Overall $166 $138 $172 $143 Group $173 $145 $180 $152 Transient $166 $138 $170 $142 Contract $92 $78 $92 $78
RevPar (2013 dollars) Overall $119 $93 $132 $104
2007-2012 Avg Annual 2020 Target
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