sustainable heating and cooling in sweden · sustainable heating and cooling in sweden dr. monica...

Sustainable Heatingand Cooling in Sweden

Dr. Monica AxellBusiness Development Manager, RISE Division Built Environmentmonica.axell@ri.se

Expected energy developments

• Heating demand will remain significant

• Cooling demand will grow rapidly

• Flexibility more and more important

• Sector coupling – Buildings-Transport-

Industry

Sustainability

District Heating

and Cooling

Oil and GasBiomass Boiler

Electricity

Heat Pumps

Energy

Sweden

Supplied energy to district heating 1980-

2017

Other

Peat

Fossil

Renewable

Recovered

Heat demand

RISE — Mallpresentation 6

Utilisation Waste

Upgrading/(vehicle fuel)

Heating

Flaring

Power production

Industrial use

Other use

Missing data/losses

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

Heat Pump sales in Sweden 1982-2018

*Air-Air

Liquide-Water

Exhaust Air

Air-Water

* Air-Air HP: Sales figures estimated from 2012 due to low numbers of

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*

Annual sales; Refrigeration & A/C, MSEK

Air Conditioning Industrial/Commercial

Market for cooling is growing in Sweden

Heat pumps are the most effective individual technology, but require competitive pricing of

electricity vs. gas to win

The era of oil and gas

Biomass, waste and independent Micro-Grids will play a niche role for local solutions

Heating grids are (where available/ new build in dense areas) the best option (scale effect …)

BiomassCombined

H/P

District Heat

Heatpump

The bi-polar world The heating future

Due to slow change rate, available infrastructure, and price gas willstay in the market for a long time

Oil becomes obsolete

Gas

Oil

Source: Pöyry, prognos AG, team analysis

Coal and direct electricity heating will fade out

Today Future

11

Green Gas

???

…will this come?

The heating market will change

Flexible system

temperatures

(°C)

Heating grids development

200 °C

150 °C

100 °C

50 °C

0 °C

System

temperature

1880 1930s 1970s 2010s

1st gen (>200°C)

2nd gen (>100°C)

3rd gen (80-100°C)

4th gen (<60(70)°C)

Warm hybrid

Cold hybrid

Low energy demands

Smart grid

(optimum interaction

of energy sources,

distribution and cons.)

2-way DH

Pre-insulated pipes

Industrialized compact

substations (insulated)

Metering and

monitoring

Pressurized hot water systems

Heavy equipment

Large stations

Steam Bidirectonal

Can deliver cooling and heating

Active components in buildings

Flexible temperatures

2:a gen smart grid

Recycles all thermal flows

5GDH

™

– Decarbonisation of the heating sector

– 14 EC countries (90 % av Europes heating market)

• Simulation of scenarios - 2050

• Conclusions:

– CO2 reduction with 86% - baseline 1990 (heating and cooling market)

– Well known technology:

• District heating in urban areas

• Heat pumps (individual or in district heating grid )

13

• District Heating - 50 % of heat demand

2050

– 12% today

• Large heat pumps - 25% of heat demand

– 95 GWth

• Heat pumps offer flexibility

• 95 GWth => 30 000 heat pumps in Europes

DHC - grid 2050 (assumption 3 MW in

average)

14

Europé DHC 2050 - HRE4

Källa: Heat Roadmap Europe

HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050

• 1,2 GW installed HP-capacity => 4

GW

– 1000 st new HP - 3MW

• 4,5 TWh/år =>12 TWh/år

– Less hours - full load

– HP is used to offer flexibility

15

Sweden 2050 (HRE4)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

De

live

red

en

erg

y (T

Wh

)

Installed heat capacity, Europe

DHC from HP in Sweden (TWh/år)

• Build 2007, 44 apartments - Energy efficient

• DHC –return - Floor heating and DHW

• Production DHW:

– Pre heating : Heat exchanger – DHC return

– Booster HP:

• Heat source : DHC return

• Heat demand: 88% DHC-return, 12% el

• Experience:

– Economy: In Karlstad: YES but depends on the cost of DHC

16

Kvarteret Seglet, Karlstad

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Today Celsius…

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