supreme flour world wheat presentation february 2014
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WORLD WHEAT
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
11/1212/1313/14
697 656 712
697 679 704
0 -23 8
0 2
World Production and Use
0 3
World Ending Stocks
0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
World wheat supply & demand
Date 11/12 12/13 13/14
Supply
Trade
Demand
Endingstocks
199 199 176
697 656 712
896 855 888
158 137 159
550 543 569
147 136 135
697 679 704
199 176 184
Exports/imports
Beginning stockProductionSupply total
Food & seedFeed & residualUse tool
0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0 6*Ending stocks
Global Ending Stocks and Price
0 7
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
0 8
International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.5% from last season, +56 million tons.
Approximately 19.2% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed and is currently US$1.52 / buschel.
Canadian production up by 38% from 2012/13 to a record 37.5 MMT but US production down 6% to 58 MMT
Black Sea production has rebounded to 105 MMT from 77.5 MMT in 2012/13 with exports expected to be 33% higher.
Argentine exports to fall 15% to 3 MMT vs. 5-year average of 7.57 MMT
0 9
Canada Situation
0 10
Black Sea Exports
0 11
U.S. Situation
0 12
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1795
1650*
3197
180
557
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
Limited small crop – 1,795 million tons (need to import 45% of requirement) = import parity driven
With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices (quality milling wheat less abundant).
Single largest driver of local prices is the weak currency (Rand).
Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 14 Feb 2014 – 760 310 tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 618 750 tons.
0 14
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