sunflower oil prices: trends, forecasts, factors to...
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SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES:TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS
TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS
July 11, 2017, Odessa / UKRAINE
Sunflower Oil Summit : Science & Industry
AGENDA
1-THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY
2 – SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS
3 – 2017/2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS
4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY
THE ROLE OF SUNOIL
GLOBALLY
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT IS AROUND
RECORD 560 MLN T.
SUNSEED IS
THE 3RD BIGGEST OILSEED FOLLOWING
SOYBEAN AND RAPESEED
WITH 8.8% ( RECORD 49.5 MLN T ) SHARE.
GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( MLN T )
Sunseed 49,5 9%
Others 53 9%
Soybean 350 63%
Rapeseed 68 12%
Cottonseed 39,5 7%
2016/17 Season, 560 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT IS AROUND
RECORD 190.0 MLN T.
SUNOIL IS
THE 4TH BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING
PALMOIL, SOYOIL AND RAPEOIL
WITH 9.75% ( RECORD 18.5 MLN T ) SHARE.
GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT ( MLN T )
Sunoil 18,5 10%
Others 25 13%
Soyoil 54 28%RapeOil 26,5
14%
Palmoil 66 35%
2016/17 Season,190 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
WORLD VEGOILS TRADE IS AROUND
RECORD 85.0 MLN T.
SUNOIL IS THE 3RD BIGGEST VEGOIL
FOLLOWING PALMOIL AND SOYOIL
WITH 12.0% ( RECORD 10.25 MLN T ) SHARE.
GLOBAL VEGOILS TRADE ( MLN T )
Sunoil 10,25 12%
Others 7,25 9%
Soyoil 12,25 15%
RapeOil 5 6%
Palmoil 47,5 58%
2016/17 Season, 85 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
AFTER BRIEF GLOBAL OUTLOOK,
LET’S LOOK AT THE MAJOR PLAYER
COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL SUNOIL
OUTPUT, CONSUMPTION AND
TRADE.
BLACK SEA BASIN
IS THE HEART OF
GLOBAL SUN
COMPLEX OUTPUT
AND TRADE.
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL
LEADER HAVING AROUND
RECORD 6.255 KMT
OF SUNOIL OUTPUT
WITH 34% SHARE GLOBALLY.
WORLD SUNOIL OUTPUT ( 1000 TONS )
Ukraine 6.255 34%
Russia 4.485 24%
Turkey 800 4%
EU-28 3.250 18%
Argentina 1.300 7%
Others 2.410 13% 2016/17 Season, 18.5 Mln T Total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
EU-28 IS THE GLOBAL LEADER
HAVING AROUND
RECORD 4.250 KMT
OF SUNOIL CONSUMPTION
WITH 23% SHARE GLOBALLY.
WORLD SUNOIL CONSUMPTION ( 1000 TONS )
China 1.250 7%
Russia 2.600 14%
Turkey 975 5%
EU-28 4.250 23%
India 2.150 12%
Others 7.025 39%
2016/17 Season, 18.25 Mln T Total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL
LEADER HAVING AROUND
RECORD 5.780 KMT
OF SUNOIL EXPORT
WITH 56% SHARE GLOBALLY.
WORLD SUNOIL EXPORT ( 1000 TONS )
Ukraine 5.780 56%Russia 2.000 19%
Argentina 700 7%
Turkey 675 7%
Others 1.095 11% 2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON;
INDIA IS THE GLOBAL LEADER
HAVING AROUND
RECORD 2.150 KMT
OF SUNOIL IMPORT
WITH 21% SHARE GLOBALLY.
WORLD SUNOIL IMPORT ( 1000 TONS )
India 2.150 21%
EU-28 1.600 16%
China 1000 10%
Turkey 860 8%
Others 4.640 45%
2016/17 Season, 10.25 Mln T Total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA
SUNOIL PRICES
&
REGIONAL GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS
FOLLOWING SUNOIL ROLE AND MAJOR GLOBAL PLAYERS,
NOW, LET’S BE FOCUSED ON GLOBAL PRICES OF SUNOIL IN RECENT YEARS AND LET’S COMPARE TO
OTHER VEGOILS PRICES.
FIRST, LET’S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB PRICES
AS PER
ROTTERDAM ( 6 PORTS ),
ARGENTINA AND BLACK SEA
SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON
477
1639
352200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800GLOBAL SUNOIL FOB PRICES, $/MT
Crude Sunoil (EU, 6 Ports, FOB Rotterdam) Crude Sunoil FOB Argentina Crude Sunoil FOB Black Sea
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD
AS YOU SEE;
1999/2000 SEASON IS THE BOTTOM WITH 352 AND 413 $/MT FOR ARGENTINA AND
ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY.
IN OCT 2000, ARGENTINIANAND ROTTERDAM FOB
PRICES WERE EVEN 294 AND 340 $/MT RESPECTIVELY.
AS YOU SEE ALSO;2007/2008 SEASON IS THE PEAK WITH 1.499, 1.501 AND 1.639 $/MTFOR BLACK SEA, ARGENTINA
AND ROTTERDAMRESPECTIVELY.
IN JUNE 2008, BLACK SEA, ARGENTINIAN AND
ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 1.774, 1.849 AND 2.045 $/MT
RESPECTIVELY.
SECOND, LET’S LOOK AT
CRUDE SUNOIL FOB
BLACK SEA PRICES SINCE
2000/2001 SEASON WHEN
UKRAINE STARTED TO BE
ONE OF THE MAJOR
GLOBAL EXPORTERS.
382
551 541612 636
549
763
1499
735
877
1302
11401090
851792 786
751
350450550650750850950
1050115012501350145015501650
CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES, $/MT
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD
AS YOU SEE;
2000/2001 SEASON WAS THE BOTTOM WITH 382 $/MT.
IN OCT 2000, 299 $/MT OF THE LOWEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN.
IN JUNE 2008, 1.774 $/MT OF THE HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN.
HOWEVER, WE EVEN EXPERIENCED AROUND 1.900 $/MT BY MID-JUNE 2008.
NOW, LET’S LOOK AT ROTTERDAM
SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES SINCE 1988/1989
SEASON
Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD
200300400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500160017001800
SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES, $/MT
Soyoil FOB Argentina Sunoil FOB Rotterdam RapeOil FOB Dutch RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia
EXCEPT SOME EXTREME SEASONS
( INCLUDING CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON
WITH RECORD GLOBAL CROP SIZE ), ROTTERDAM SUNOIL
WAS ALMOST THE MOST HIGHLY-PRICED
VEGOIL.
SUNOIL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE
FACTORS
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
1- USD/UAH & USD/RU PARITIES
UKRAINIAN GRIVNA &
RUSSIAN RUBLE CURRENCY
RATES ARE QUITE CRUCIAL
FOR SUNOIL EXPORTS.
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
2- FARMER SALES
SALES INTEREST OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN
FARMERS ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR CRUSHABLE
SUNSEED SUPPLIES AND CRUSHING MARGINS .
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
3- EXPORT DUTIES
UKRAINE HAS 10% AND RUSSIA
HAS 6.5% EXPORT DUTIES FOR
SUNSEED BY AIMING TO
PROVIDE MORE CRUSHABLE
LOCAL SUNSEED SUPPLIES .
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
4- TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES
TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES OF
SUNSEED AND SUNOIL ARE
DETERMINING THE ACTUAL
IMPORT SIZES.
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;5- TURKISH RE-EXPORTS
UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME, TURKEY IMPORTS DUTY-
FREE CRUDE SUNOIL FROM BLACK SEA AND RE-EXPORTS IT AS REFINED
MAINLY TO IRAQ AND SYRIA BY UTILIZING
ITS LOGISTICS AND CULTURAL ADVANTAGES.
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
6- REGIONAL TRADE AND POLITICAL CONFLICTS
PLEASE REMEMBER TURKISH
SUNOIL IMPORT BAN FOR
RUSSIAN SUNOIL IN BETWEEN
MID-MARCH AND
MID-MAY 2017.
REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS;
7- NEW REFINERY IN IRAQ
A NEW REFINERY FACTORY WAS JUST ESTABLISHED IN BABEL/IRAQ WITH
DAILY CAPACITY OF 2.000 TONS. THIS MAY REDUCE TURKISH REFINED
SUNOIL RE-EXPORTS TO IRAQ AND INCREASE CRUDE SUNOIL IMPORTS
FROM RUSSIA MAINLY VIA UMM QASR PORT IN PERSIAN GULF.
GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;
1- SUNOIL/OTHER VEGOILS PREMIUM
SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM VERSUS OTHER VEGOILS IS SO
IMPORTANT FOR PRICE ELASTIC DESTINATIONS SUCH
NORTHERN AFRICA AND IRAN FOREMOST.
GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;
2- PETROL PRICES
ALBEIT SUNOIL IS NOT BIODIESEL RAW MATERIAL
SO MUCH, IT’S ALSO INFLUENCED FROM OTHER
VEGOILS.
GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;3- WEATHER CONDITIONS
EL-NINO, LA-NINA AND OTHER LOCAL WEATHER PHENOMENA ARE QUITE
CRUCIAL FOR ACTUAL CROP SIZES OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS
TO BE CRUSHED FOR VEGOILS OUTPUT.
GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;4- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRADE
RULES
POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR
SUNOIL EXPORTERS/IMPORTERS AS WELL AS FOREIGN TRADE
LEGISLATION ARE NONE-NEGLIGIBLE.
GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS;
5- CURRENCIES
EUR/USD AND OTHER
CURRENCIES ARE ALSO THE
MAJOR DETERMINANTS IN
SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOIL
PRICES.
2017/18 SEASON PROSPECTS
BLACK SEA SUNFLOWER PLANTINGS BY SPRING 2017 WERE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016 ONES.
IN THIS CONNECTION, UNDER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS, DISLIKE UNFAVOURABLE ONES IN ESP. BALKANS BY SUMMER 2015 AND 2016, STILL PROMISING
NEW-CROP SIZES ARE LIKELY.
BESIDES, AS PER EARLIER PLANTINGS, EARLIER HARVESTINGS ( STARTING BY
MID EVEN 5-10 AUG 2017 ) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
NOW, LET’S LOOK AT OUR LATEST
2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED ACREAGES
NEW-CROP SIZE FORECASTS
BY MAJOR PRODUCERS.
2017/2018 SEASON GLOBAL SUNSEED PROSPECTS
Acreage, kha* Yield ( Kg/daa ) Crop Size ( kmt )
COUNTRY 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 2017/18 F 2016/17 No
Ukraine 6.350 6.350 236 13.500 - 14.000 15.000 1
Russia 7.750 7.750 148 10.500 - 11.000 11.500 2
Argentina 1.700 - 1.800 1.750 197 3.250 - 3.500 3.450 3
China 1.075 1.050 262 2.750 - 3.000 2.750 4
Hungary 660 650 292 1.750 - 1.900 1.900 5
Romania 1.100 1.025 185 2.000 - 2.200 1.900 6
Bulgaria 850 825 218 1.950 - 2.150 1.800 7
Turkey** 675 585 231 1.500 - 1.600 1.350 8
France 575 550 218 1.200 - 1.300 1.200 9
USA 575 625 192 1.000 - 1.100 1.200 10
Moldova 410 400 213 800 - 850 850 11
South Afr. Rep. 625 - 675 650 127 800 - 850 825 12
Kazakhistan 800 810 93 700 - 750 750 13
Spain 700 725 100 550 - 600 725 14
Serbia 200 200 313 575 - 625 625 15
Others 3.525 - 3.575 3.550 104 3.600 - 3.700 3.675 16
Total 27.570 - 27.770 27.495 180 46.425 - 49.125 49.500
* Planted Acreages Narrow-Range 47.000 - 48.000
** 150 - 175 kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.
SUMMING UP, REGIONALLY ;
• Ukraine, 13.5 – 14.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 15.0 ),
• Russia, 10.5 – 11.0 Mln T ( 16/17, record 11.5 ),
• Romania, 2.0 – 2.2 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.9 ),
• Bulgaria, 1.95 – 2.15 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.8 ),
• Turkey, 1.5 – 1.6 Mln T ( 15/16, 1.35 ),
• Moldova, 0.8 – 0.85 Mln T ( 15/16, 0.85 ).
.
UNDER NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS;
2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED GLOBAL NEW-CROP IS LIKELY
AS
47.0 – 48.0 MLN T.
VS RECORD 49.5 MLN T. OF 2016/17.
IF SO,
GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT & TRADE
MAY BE
AROUND 0.6 – 1.0 MLN T.
LESS THAN RECORD 2016/17 SEASON
ACCORDINGLY,
CURRENT EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS PRICE PREMIUM OF
SUNOIL VS SOYOIL
MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SIMILAR TO
EARLIER SEASONS EXCEPT CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.
ASIDE FROM SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS
( IN BLACK SEA ESP. ) FOR SUNSEED,
WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES,
FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT
PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL
ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS!!!
PRESENTATION
SUMMARY
• SUNOIL IS AMIDS THE MOST PRODUCED AND TRADED AGROCOMMODITIESOF THE WORLD.
• UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN BOTH GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT ANDTRADE.
• SUNOIL IS THE MOST HIGH-PRICED VEGOIL EXCEPT EXTREME SEASONSSUCH CURRENT 2016/17 ONE.
• BLACK SEA, THE HEART OF SUN COMPLEX, WHEREAS SUNFLOWER NEW-CROP ACREAGES ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016,BUT EXTRA-ORDINARY YIELDS MAY NOT BE REPEATED IN UKRAINE ANDRUSSIA FOREMOST.
• WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NEW-CROP POTENTIALS, 2017/18 NEW-SEASONGLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE MAY BE 0.6 – 1.0 MLN T LESS THANCURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.
• IF SO, CURRENT SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM ( EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS ) VSSOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NEXT 2017/18 SEASON.
• NEVERTHELESS, ARE WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMERWEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEEDNEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USDPARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBALECONOMICAL/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJORQUESTIONMARKS STILL.
Great thanks for your kind attention…
велике спасибі…
Большое спасибо…
THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 19-YEAR SECTOR
EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 )
VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com
veyselkaya@sunseedman.comSKYPE : SUNSEEDMAN
GSM : 00 90 542 273 50 63Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/SUNSEEDMAN
Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/in/SUNSEEDMAN
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