strategies in the 2008 presidential campaign christopher arterton dean of the gspm

805 21st Street, NW, Suite 401 Washington, DC 20052 202-994-6000 www.gspm.gwu.edu

The Graduate School of Political Management

POLITICS FROM A NEW PERSPECTIVE

Strategies in the 2008 Presidential Campaign

Christopher ArtertonDean of the GSPM

Definition of Strategy in Electoral Politics

A road map defining an objective* and

specifying the means* to achieve it

* Precision and concreteness matter!

Elements of Strategy in Electoral Politics

1. Goals – coalition of voters to support candidacy

2. Available Resources – money, staff, volunteers

3. Deployment of Scarce Resources

4. Messages

Messaging in Electoral Politics

POLICIES: Proposals advanced by candidate

IMAGES: Unique qualities of candidate

NARRATIVE: Unique history of candidate

FRAME: Question to be decided by election

McCain’s General Election Strategy (A)

Goals:

• Unify party particularly social conservatives • Reach toward undecided voters in middle• Attract women disaffected by treatment of

Clinton• Focus on “Bush states” from 2000 and 2004

McCain’s General Election Strategy (B)

Resources:

• Federal Public Funding: $84 million • RNC Party Funds: $150 Million (?)• Party committees in “Red States”• Choice of Vice-Presidential Running

Mate• Highly Centralized Campaign Structure

McCain’s General Election Strategy (C)

Messaging:

• “Mavericks” will reform Washington • National Security Expertise: “Country First”• Obama: Cultural “Celebrity” (Not Leader)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ocngIAeXjQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id1IKJGVkvg

4. Obama: Untested and Inexperienced5. Obama: “Tax-and-Spend Liberal” 6. Obama: “Un-American”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w

Obama’s General Election Strategy (A)

Goals:

• Unify party particularly Clinton supporters • Reach toward undecided voters (“Change

Election”)• Mobilize Young Voters (18 to 30)• Increase African-American & Hispanic turnout• 35 states = multiple paths to Electoral College

victory

Obama’s General Election Strategy (B)

Resources:

• Ability to raise money ($151 Million in September)

• Three million plus on mybarackobama.com• Organization built during primary campaign• Wholly owned campaign organization • Cohesive structure of “insurgent” campaign• 80% of public believing nation on “wrong track”

Obama’s General Election Strategy (C)

Messaging:

• “Change we can believe in” • “Yes we can!” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTji3oiUKnA

• Middle-class tax cut http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BDyz4J-QA

• Jobs, healthcare, environment, energy independence

• McCain = Bush http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PluoMotgl2w

Competing Frames: McCain

This election is about

► effective, experienced leadership; a genuine hero

► a choice for “mavericks” that can and will change

Washington (except in matters of national security)

► choosing a team that will put “Country First”

► times are too critical to elect Obama

an untested, unknown leader

with liberal policies, and

ties to radical elements

Competing Frames: Obama

This election is about

► Change … change we can believe in

► Uniting Americans in a quest: “we are all one people”

► “This is our time” (for greatness): generational shift

► Republican policies have produced the economic crisis

► McCain equals third term for Bush

► Choosing a candidate that embodies change & progress

low key persona and moderate policies

bi-partisan approaches to public policy

the first African-American president

Electoral College Results 2004 and 2008

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/

BATTLEGROUND 2008 Tracking Poll

October 23, October 26 - October 29, 2008

N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%

42%43%43%42%43%43%

42%41% 41%45%

47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%

43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%

43%44%44%41%

11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%

McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%

Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%

Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

Week 1

Week 2

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15

UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)

44%40%

9% 9% 9%11% 11%

24%24%22%26%25%

41%44% 45%

43%41%

35%35%

25%20%22% 22%

19%21%17%

28%24%

Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31% 25% 26% 22% 24% 24% 25%

Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41% 43% 44% 45% 41% 44% 40%

Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17% 21% 19% 22% 22% 20% 25%

Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 8%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for president this year -- are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL BRING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON

28%28%28%28%

59%58% 57%61%

57%55%52%

McCain 34% 32% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28%

Obama 52% 55% 57% 61% 58% 57% 59%

9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?IS A STRONG LEADER

46%45%

46%46%

50%52%

51%48%

44%43%

41%43%

37%37%

McCain 48% 52% 51% 50% 46% 46% 43% 45% 46%

Obama 43% 37% 37% 41% 41% 43% 46% 43% 44%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?WILL CREATE JOBS*

51% 51%

37%36%

33%32%34%

38%39% 39%

53%52%

49%47%

McCain 33% 39% 39% 38% 34% 32% 33% 36% 37%

Obama 54% 48% 47% 49% 52% 55% 53% 51% 51%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?KEEPING AMERICA SAFE AND SECURE

55%56%

57%55% 55%57%

37%39%37%35%37%36%33%

McCain 57% 55% 55% 57% 52% 56% 55%

Obama 33% 36% 37% 35% 39% 37% 37%

9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS

40%39%

37%36%38%

43% 43%

47%46%

45%44%43%

McCain 41% 43% 43% 41% 38% 36% 37% 39% 40%

Obama 47% 43% 44% 45% 46% 49% 47% 45% 48%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Obama?WILL UNITE THE COUNTRY

52% 53%

33%32%33%34%

37%36%

52%52% 53%

49%47%

McCain 33% 36% 39% 37% 34% 33% 32% 33% 32%

Obama 53% 50% 47% 49% 52% 53% 52% 52% 53%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME

53% 52%

35%35%37%

39%39%42%

53%52% 53%51%

48%48%

McCain 33% 39% 42% 39% 37% 35% 35% 38% 38%

Obama 53% 48% 48% 51% 52% 53% 53% 53% 52%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Who better represents this quality: John McCain or Barack Obama?SHARES YOUR VALUES

44%43%

40%42%

43%45%

47%47%

46%46%

McCain 43% 46% 45% 45% 43% 42% 40% 43% 44%

Obama 46% 43% 46% 46% 47% 50% 50% 47% 47%

5/7 8/1 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?

7% 7% 6% 6%

20%21%22%21%19%20%

18%18%

30%27%27%

32%34%

32%32%35%

6% 5%6%7%

Extremely comfortable 18% 20% 18% 19% 21% 22% 21% 20%

Very Comfortable 27% 32% 27% 31% 27% 30% 27% 30%

Somewhat Comfortable 37% 31% 35% 32% 32% 29% 34% 32%

Not at all Comfortable 7% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?

24%21%

9%9%8%9%7%

9% 10%11%

16%14%

18%16%17%18%

43%43%39%

42%40%40%39%40%

24%21%25%25%

Extremely comfortable 11% 9% 10% 7% 9% 8% 9% 9%

Very Comfortable 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 18% 16% 16%

Somewhat Comfortable 40% 39% 40% 40% 42% 39% 43% 43%

Not at all Comfortable 27% 25% 21% 25% 24% 24% 21% 23%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate – John McCain, or Barack Obama -- do you think is running a more negative campaign?

13%9% 7% 8% 8% 7%

19% 21% 19%

57%52%

56%53%

47%42% 44%

15%14% 14%13%12%12%

4%4%4%6%4%5%9%9%8%10%

28%32%

20%21%

McCain 50% 42% 44% 47% 53% 56% 52% 57%

Both 10% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 13%

Neither / No difference 9% 9% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4%

Undecided 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 8% 8% 7%

Obama 21% 28% 32% 28% 20% 19% 21% 19%

8/8 9/11 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/15 10/22 10/29

40%39%39%39%40%40%40%41% 41%42%41%

42%43%43%42%43%43%

42%41% 41%45%

47%48%48%47%47%45%46%45%

43%43% 45%45%44%45%45%45%44%

43%44%44%41%

11%12%12%13%12%12%12%12%13%13%14%14%13%12%12%11%12%14%13%14%14%

McCain 45% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 42% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39% 39% 40%

Obama 41% 44% 44% 43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 45% 46% 45% 45% 45% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47%

Barr 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nader 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Unsure 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

Week 1

Week 2

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/28 9/29 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9 10/12 10/13 10/14 10/15

UNAIDED BALLOT (N=800)

SUMMARY (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

► … the economy tanked (63% said most important: 53/44)*

► … Bush disapproval (51% strongly disapproved: 82/16)

► … a “Change Election” (34%: 89/9)► … he raised more money ($639M to $360M

for McCain)► … the African-American turnout (11% in ’04;

13% in ’08: 95/4)

SUMMARY Cont. (with Exit Poll Data): Obama won because ….

► … the Latino vote (9% of electorate; 67/31)► … the young voters (+1% in ’08 to 18%:

66/32)► … the gender gap (men = 47%: 49/48;

women = 53%: 56/43)► … a surge in turnout (17% did not vote in

’04: 71/27; increase from 124M to 126M)► … better organization (26% contacted by

Obama: 64/34; versus 18% contacted by McCain (38/60)

strategies in the 2008 presidential campaign christopher arterton dean of the gspm

change change

obamathis election

mccainthis election

bush http

elements of strategy

unamerican http

undecided voters

middleclass tax cut

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