state population forecast: 2010-2040 presentation€¦ · comparison to prior forecast –migration...

OFMOFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

November 13, 2019

Office of Financial Management

Forecasting and Research Division

State Population Forecast: 2010–2040

Highlights of November 2019 Update

• Changes to the 2018 forecast assumptions

• Fertilityo The actual number of births in 2018 was 1,360 below our

estimate. 2019 estimated births are 3,725 lower.

o This decrease is consistent with national trends and may be a new normal, not a short-term trend.

o The 2019 update assumes lower long-term fertility rates.

• Migrationo Near-term migration received a moderate upward

adjustment due to improvements in the short-term economic outlook.

• Mortalityo No adjustments to life expectancies were made.

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Comparison to Prior Forecast – Migration

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2019, 90,200

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Actual/Estimated 2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast

Comparison to Prior Forecast - Components of Change

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0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Population Change Births Deaths Natural Increase Net Migration

2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast

+ 97,900

+ 2,300

+ 6,800

- 4,500

+ 102,400

Population Growth

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Washington’s Population Will Surpass 9 Million by 2036

1 M

2 M

3 M

4 M

5 M

6 M

7 M

8 M

9 M

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Washington’s Population is Aging

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827,700

1,281,700

1,766,100

2,016,200

117,300 140,000217,400

397,600

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Pop 65+ Pop 85+

Dependency Ratio

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19701.30

19801.63

19901.65

20001.71

20101.79

20201.57 2030

1.4020401.36

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Ratio of Working Ageto Non-Working Age

Old (75+)

Young Old (65-74)

Young (0-17)

Policy Relevant Population Change: 2019-21

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2.9%

8.9%

8.9%

1.8%

1.7%

2.1%

2.2%

4.3%

1.3%

3.1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Medical Assistance

Long-Term Care

Medicaid - Elderly

Medicaid - Adults

Medicaid - Children

TANF

Corrections

Juvenile Rehabilitation

Higher Education

K-12 Education

Projected Change

Population growth in specific subgroups will impact major budget areas although the magnitude will

depend on policy choices, economic factors, and social conditions.

Male Ages 18-39

Ages 17-29

General Population

Ages 75+

Ages 0-19

Ages 0-17

Ages 12-17

Ages 5-17

Ages 20-64

Ages 65+

Overall Population Growth

Summary

• The state population will surpass 9M by 2040

• Migration will continue to be the main contributor to state population growth between 2019 and 2040

• Net migration: 1.2M persons• Natural increase: 549K persons

• The state’s elderly population is increasing dramatically• 1 in 5 Washingtonians will be an elderly person by 2030• 2M residents will be 65 or older by 2040. This is 790K more

than today• The 85 and over population will nearly triple between now

and 2040 from 136K to 398K

• In 2040, the state will have 74 dependents for every 100 persons of working age

• 1.9M children (0-17)• 2.0M elderly (65+) • 5.4M persons of working age (18-64)

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Contact:

Mike Mohrman, State Demographer

Office of Financial Management

Forecasting and Research Division

mike.mohrman@ofm.wa.gov

360-902-0602

Rob Kemp, Senior Forecast Analyst

Office of Financial Management

Forecasting and Research Division

robert.kemp@ofm.wa.gov

360-902-7305

Website:

https://ofm.wa.gov/pop/stfc