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RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Installed Capacity
•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity Utilisation
Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion
Demand
Capacity= %
Freight Demand Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
Frei
gh
t (M
tpa)
Straight-line distance between MD's (km)
Total Freight on Surface Total Freight on Rail
Rail Addressable MarketShort Haul
>50
% o
f to
tal f
reig
ht v
olum
es
RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Installed Capacity
•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity Utilisation
Surface Forecast - all modesSurface Forecast - all modes
Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion
Demand
Capacity= %
Freight Demand Forecast
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Frei
ght
Tonn
es (
Mill
ions
)
Container/Tons
Automotive
Break Bulk
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Perishables
Total 2008 Forecast
Assume market share shiftAssume market share shift
RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Installed Capacity
•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity Utilisation
Surface Forecast - all modesSurface Forecast - all modes
Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion
Demand
Capacity= %
Freight Demand Forecast
For all 65 commodities
Addressable Market
Current Market Share
Commodity All
Surf
ace
(Bas
e)
> 1
50 K
m S
urfa
ce
Rai
l Act
ual (
Bas
e)
Rai
l Mar
ket
Shar
e (A
ll)
Rai
l Mar
ket
Shar
e (>
150k
m)
Mar
ket
Shar
e A
mbi
tion
%
Cat
ch-U
p %
MOTOR VEHICLES 1,899,067 1,418,444 227,579 11.3% 16.0% 75% 3%BARLEY 558,181 419,050 293,261 49.6% 70.0% 60% 1%BEVERAGES 12,162,271 8,903,707 515,718 4.0% 5.8% 20% 1%BRICKS 18,137,725 6,157,968 CEMENT 14,976,859 9,057,874 3,056,863 19.3% 33.7% 30% 0%CHROME 7,899,490 2,603,641 2,131,140 25.5% 81.9% 100% 0%CITRUS 987,053 853,980 79,166 7.6% 9.3% 10% 1%COAL MINING EXPORT 63,448,022 63,448,022 63,448,022 100.0% 100.0% 100% 0%CONTAINER TRAFFIC 39,363,980 25,090,479 5,323,302 12.8% 21.2% 75% 3%COPPER 105,960 81,405 402,625 100.0% 100.0% 100% 0%FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES 3,039,575 1,201,967 601,566 18.7% 50.0% 50% 0%FOOD AND FOOD PROCESSING 35,932,585 28,118,751 843,047 2.2% 3.0% 15% 1%FERROCHROME 2,847,579 2,803,235 2,170,923 72.0% 77.4% 100% 0%FERROMANGANESE 642,892 592,091 588,910 86.5% 99.5% 100% 0%PETROLEUM REFINERIES AND PRODUCTS OF PETROLEUM/COAL 28,437,259 16,825,673 3,040,743 10.1% 18.1% 25% 2%
Assume efficiency improvementAssume efficiency improvement
Assume market share shiftAssume market share shift
RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Installed Capacity
•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity Utilisation
Surface Forecast - all modesSurface Forecast - all modes
Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion
Demand
Capacity= %
Freight Demand Forecast
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
45-5035-4525-3515-255-151-5
%
Train Length (Wagons)
General Freight Train Configurations
GF - Consolidated
GF - Current
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
188-2000-8
%
Train Length
Coal (South of Ermelo)
Consolidated
Current
Assume market share shiftAssume market share shift
RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Installed Capacity
•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity Utilisation
Surface Forecast - all modesSurface Forecast - all modes
Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion
Demand
Capacity= %
Freight Demand Forecast
Convert Rail Demand per commodity to equivalent trains
per day
Convert Rail Demand per commodity to equivalent trains
per day
Assume efficiency improvementAssume efficiency improvement
To determine the number of trains required to move a predetermined amount of freight a train service design is assumed
This service design depends on the route as well as the type of commodity moved
Train service design factors:
Wagon type
Load/wagon (route specific)
Load utilisation
Train length (design)
Train length distribution
Mamathwane - Sishen 6 89% 54% 55% 64% 68% 71% 73% 77% 80% 83% 86% 90% 93% 97% 101% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%
Sishen - Lohatlha 15 76% 57% 52% 58% 62% 60% 62% 65% 69% 71% 74% 77% 81% 86% 91% 98% 101% 103% 106% 109%
Lohatlha - Beeshoek 18 62% 49% 45% 49% 52% 49% 52% 54% 57% 59% 61% 64% 68% 72% 76% 82% 84% 87% 89% 91%
Beeshoek - Postmasburg 18 61% 47% 41% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60% 63% 66% 69% 74% 79% 85% 87% 89% 92% 94%
Postmasburg - Groenwater 15 75% 58% 51% 56% 60% 63% 65% 68% 72% 74% 78% 81% 86% 91% 97% 105% 108% 111% 113% 116%
Groenwater - Lime Acres 22 51% 38% 34% 38% 41% 43% 44% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 61% 65% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78%
Lime Acres - Silverstreams 16 84% 64% 57% 63% 67% 70% 73% 76% 80% 83% 87% 91% 95% 101% 107% 115% 119% 122% 126% 130%
Silverstreams - Ulco 16 89% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 92% 97% 102% 107% 114% 122% 126% 130% 134% 138%
Ulco - Barkly West 16 88% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 91% 96% 101% 107% 114% 122% 125% 129% 133% 137%
Barkly West - Fieldsview 16 89% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 92% 96% 101% 107% 114% 122% 126% 130% 134% 138%
Segment Ops
Slo
ts
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
RailPlanning Principles
Match Capacity to demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
1Projected Demand
•Annual Rail Timeslot
requirements per section forecast
for 30 years
Capacity UtilisationInstalled Capacity•Operational Capacity =
65% of theoretical
slots
•35% = maintenance, peaks,
operational failures, etc
Demand
Capacity= %
This determines where new capacity needs to be built, how much and the timing…
Rail Capacity vs Demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
Network Pressure Map 2007
Network Pressure Map 2017Network Pressure Map 2027Network Pressure Map 2037
Rail Capacity vs Demand
Source: Transnet Group Planning
Rail Development PlansInfrastructure Zones
Ore Line
Western & Southern Cape
Eastern Cape & Central Port System
Gauteng Freight Ring & Central Core
Coal line, NATCOR and Eastern port system
Maputo Corridor
Northern System
Sishen
Saldanha
Cape Town
East London
Port ElizabethMosselbaai
Rosmead
Cookhouse
Noupoort
Upington
Hotazel
Springfontein
Queenstown
Blaney
Port Shepstone
Musina
Durban
Kimberley
Steelpoort
Komatipoort
PhalaborwaVaalwater
Lephalale
Veertien Strome
Danskraal
Worcester
Groenbult
Polokwane
Nakop
LESOTHOHalfweg
De Aar
Hutchinson
Beaufort West
Mafikeng
Bethlehem
Belmont
Alicedale
Klerksdorp
Kaapmuiden
Richards BayBloemfontein
Pietermaritzburg
Harrismith
Modimolle
Nelspruit
Vryheid
Ngqura
Maseru
Bitterfontein
Kalbaskraal
Dal Josafat
Stanger
Glencoe
RietvalleiSWAZILAND
Empangeni
Ermelo
Zesfontein
Ogies
Hoedspruit
Roossenekal
Pyramid
CachetHoutheuwel
Lichtenburg
ColignyWelverdiend
Wesrand
RustenburgGreenview Derwent
Belfast
Machadadorp
Iron Ore Line: Profile
Distance 861 km Topography oSemi-desert, descending
to the coast from 1 295 m above sea level at the Sishen mines. Axle loads Operated at 30 t/axle
Ruling Gradient 0,37% loadedTraction 50kV AC
Civil Olifantsrivier Bridge# of lines Single line with crossing
loopsTrain Authorisation
Simmis S colour light signalling Locomotives oClass 9E and 34 Class Diesels
oClass 15 E locomotives being commissionedWagons CR type: max payload of
100 tonsGross tons per train
34 200 tons @ 4km in length
Volumes in 2008/09
36mt export iron ore, 1 mt general freight
Competitiveness Longest heavy haul production trains in the world
End of train @ 4 kilometres
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