small cells: how did we get from heresy to prevailing orthodoxy, and what challenges lie ahead?

Small Cells: How did we get from heresy to prevailing orthodoxy, and what challenges lie ahead?

Simon Saunders

04/10/2012 1 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Agenda

• About Real Wireless

• Small cell progress: seven years in four minutes

• Big questions remaining

• Aspirin or tonic?

• Why, where, when, how many?

• Role of hosted, managed service

• Additional issues

04/10/2012 2 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

About Real Wireless

• Focused UK-based wireless consultancy, bridging the gap between wireless experts and wireless users

• Team of independent experts with deep technology and broad business experience

• Clients include: • Enterprises

• Operators

• Regulators

• Vendors

• Investors and law firms

• Experience: • Hundreds of radio systems

• Wireless strategy for landlords and enterprises

• Founded and chair(ed) Small Cell (Femto) Forum

• Ofcom Spectrum Advisory Board

3 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved. 04/10/2012

Some Clients

Some Places Some Technologies

The Small Cell community has come a long way

04/10/2012 4 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

3G Femtocell Standard

Interference management

100x capacity

Business case

More 3G femtos than

macros globally

60% of operators say small cells more

important than macrocells for LTE

Heresy!

Outside-in always wins!

2005

Orthodoxy!

2012

But some big questions remain

• Femtocells: niche or mass market?

• Public small cells:

• Aspirin or tonic?

• Why?

• Where?

• When?

• How many?

• Need to rewrite the RF planning rulebook for the new world

04/10/2012 5 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Capacity benefits

• Small Cell Forum study of 3G small cells in outdoor environments (but general concepts similar for LTE)

• Demonstrates that interference management techniques allow small cells and macrocells to coexist in the same frequencies without causing undue interference

• Shows that even with conservative deployments, small cells could offload the majority of subscribers in busy areas, reducing network load and improving user experience

© Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

21%

56%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1 4 10

Small cells per macro

% t

raff

ic o

fflo

ade

d

Source: Small Cell Forum

04/10/2012 6

Aspirin

User experience benefits

• Substantial increase in typical data throughput for all users, whether connected to the small cells or macrocells

• Great opportunity for increasing user satisfaction and a strong motivation to install small cells even outside of capacity-limited areas

© Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

58%

315%

523%

31% 138%

246%

0%

200%

400%

600%

1 4 10

All Users

Macro Users

% increase in median throughput over macrocells alone

Small cells per macrocell Source: Small Cell Forum

04/10/2012 7

Tonic

So why deploy small cells?

04/10/2012 8 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Small Cells

Offload for capacity

Depth and breadth of coverage

Improved user experience

Value-added services

More Deeper, broader

Better Different

Strategy Downsides Upsides

Where should small cells be placed? Currently no agreement on the placement strategy: several options:

04/10/2012 9 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Exact hotspot

locations

Maximise ‘geometry’ gains

Hotspots appear, move and disappear

Macrocell edges

Stable, goes to the heart of the

issue

Comparable benefit?

Backhaul locations

Make best of available fibre

Compromised access

performance

Randomly & in excess

Break dependence on

planning

Subtle balance of locations being

cheaper vs more numerous

When should small cells be deployed and how many are needed? • On capacity grounds alone, need to consider all enhancement techniques

together, not just small cells with static macro capacity

• We tried this for the UK over the period 2012-2030

04/10/2012 10 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

What did we find? It depends…

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TECHNOLOGY

SPECTRUM TOPOLOGYCapacity

11x? 7x? 13x?

2-100x??

• Depends heavily on economics as well as technology

6.2x? 10.1x? 3/3x?

04/10/2012

How many small cells depends (inter alia) on how much spectrum

• One illustration of how the numbers depend on external factors • See http://www.realwireless.biz/mobile-capacity-in-the-uk-major-study-

published/ for more

12 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved. 04/10/2012

Source: Real Wireless, 2012

Different motivations, different locations and volumes

04/10/2012 13 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Offloading congested macrocells

In hotspots, at macrocell edges

4-8 per congested

macro?

Depth and breadth of coverage

Close to shielded buildings, far from macros

5-10 per macro?

Improved user experience

Almost everywhere

5-30 per macro?

Why?

Where?

How many?

More Deeper, broader Better

Consistent operator views on the top challenges for small cells

04/10/2012 14 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Source: Small Cell Forum LinkedIn Group. Poll results as at 12/9/12

Small Cells as a Service – SCaaS

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Site provider 1 Site provider 2

Small Cell Service Provider - SCaaS

Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3

Access to sites

Small Cell Network Access to and operation of small cell network

Delivery of mobile services

Mobile operator self-provided A potential SCaaS offering

Which parts of a small cell network could a SCaaS provider offer?

04/10/2012 16 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

SCaaS more likely to offer

Operator more likely to self-provide

Sites

Backhaul

Antennas

Housing Active

Electronics Power

Mobile operator

Small Cell Service Provider

- SCaaS

Other issues could help shift small cells from aspirin to tonic • Councils and other site providers have a big role to play

• Broadband objectives: Growth, inclusiveness, remote delivery

• Can we align their incentives and those of the industry? (Avoid “lamp grab”)

• Open interoperability (not just standards) • Well in hand for femtocells

• But is it just too hard for public access small cells?

• Spectrum sharing models • Witness 3.5GHz in the US

• Not always palatable for current operators, but can open up new bands and facilitate rapid refarming

• Many locations require a multi-operator model: shared spectrum may be more practical than multi-carrier

04/10/2012 17 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

Overall • Small cells are increasingly well-accepted as

playing a key role in future mobile networks

• But there are distinct motivations lead to distinct outcomes:

• Capacity

• Depth of coverage

• User experience

• Services

• These distinct motivations - and progress in the other options for delivering them - lead to very different outcomes for:

• Quantity

• Timing

• Location

• Actual scale of deployment will depend to a large degree on how easy/cheap deployment turns out to be

• A wholesale “SCaaS” approach could help address both backhaul and site issues

04/10/2012 18 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.

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04/10/2012 19 © Real Wireless Ltd. 2012, All rights reserved.