risk management of a ppp programme
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Risk Management of a PPP
Presented by:Audrey Mwala
Director Project Finance & Risk AnalysisThe Public Private Partnership Commission, Malawi.
9/15/2015
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Project Financing Risks• Infrastructure projects are inherently risky.• A project may be subject technical,
environmental, economic and political risks. • Risk identification and allocation is a key. • Project financing is distributed among
multiple parties, so as to distribute the project risk.
• Financiers institutions at times conclude that the risks in a project are unbankable
• Riskier projects may require limited recourse financing, a surety from sponsors
Risk Analysis• Done at various stages of the project• Each party does their own risk analysis– Sponsors look at the return on equity– Bankability of the project to attract debt
• Review risk the along the way. Change in risk allocation after award of the bid compromises the benefit from competition that one could have obtained during bidding
• Market testing
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Determinants of risk allocation
• Choice the PPP model• Project type• Prevailing economic
environment• Payment mechanism• Performance
measurement
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk analysis• Construction (cost, delays, quality)• Operating risks • Demand risk • Force majeure and change in law • Political and regulatory risk and expropriation and
nationalization risk • Environmental risk • Social risk • Tenor and Refinancing Risk• Currency exchange risk • Interest rate risk
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Impact Assessment
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Probability
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Allocation Determinants
• Allocate risks to the party that is best placed to manage them. Best able to:– control chance of occurrence– Control the impact– Absorb it at lowest cost
• With maximum risk to private sector:.– Increases risk premium/ high equity return– Hard to raise debt
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk AllocationRisk Event Impact Private party Shared Risk Government MitigationConstruction risk high InsuranceOperational- loss of revenue Medium pay for the whole yearCommercial risks low marketing & good serviceDamage of fixtures Medium security camerarent default Low advance payment
Lack of security MediumRound the clock security , & police presence
Land encroachment by staff membersMedium Warn teachers in advanceFire Catastrophic Anti-fire formPower fai lure Severe T rainingWater availabil ity severe boreholeFinancing servere Low gearing ratioExchange rate Medium stablisation fundInterest rate Low fixed interestConcession fees default Medium Close monitoringRegulatory Risk Medium Stabillisation fundResidual Value risk severe Compulsory maint.
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Limitation of risk allocation
• Level of detail of risk allocation ( cost /benefit)• Risk that can’t be transferred (e.g. political)• Extent of risk transfer- limited to equity and not full
value of debt• Force majeure
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Mitigating project risks, Lender’s perspective (negative covenants)
• Gearing restrictions• Debts service coverage ratios– Debt Service Cover Ratio (“DSCR”) – Loan Life Cover Ratio (“LLCR”) – Project Life Cover Ratio (“PLCR”)
• Cash flow waterfall priority• Reserve accounts– Major Maintenance reserve account– Debt service reserve account
• Insurance• Mezzanine finance
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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The Cash flow waterfall• Construction, operating and
maintenance expenditure• Principal &Interest senior debt• Senior debt service reserve
account • Interest subordinated debt• Principal on subordinated debt• Maintenance Reserve Account • Shareholder subordinated loans • Distributions to shareholders
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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The Cash flow WaterfallEBITDA
DSCR = ----------------=>1.5Debt Service
Operating Income or EBITDA
Revenue
O & M Expenses
Debt Payment Taxes Profit
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Mitigation through host Govt.
• Gap funding– Capital or operational
• Step in rights• Availability payment • Compensation for project termination or force majeure event• Government Guarantees (Direct Agreements)• Collateral e.g. over project site• Challenge- increase Govt.’s contingent liabilities & reduces
VFM
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Mitigation by Govt. - Construction & Operation phase
•Liquidated Damages – payment for construction delay e.g. $3b Airport link tunnel PPP Queensland, Brisbane, 2013 •Performance Bond – against constructions challenges e.g. Gautrain •Parent Company Guarantees – to take on some of the obligations of the sub-contractor•Environmental assessment- Equator principles•Key performance indicators •Performance based payments
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Management by Government• Gap funding- reduces risk premium• Reduce cost of finance –Govt. pass on concessional loans• Risk allocation• Contract performance monitoring
– Construction– Operation – key performance indicators, penalties
• Reporting obligations• Insurance• Key personnel• Certified Auditors• Renegotiation
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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Risk Management by Project Sponsors• Leveraged capital structure • Establish Special purpose vehicle• Lenders monitoring• Subordinated loans• Contractors @ risk capital• Experienced O&M firm– Key performance indicators
05/01/2023 Presented by Audrey Mwala, Director Project Finance & Risk Analysis, The PPPC, Malawi
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•Need for risk reporting framework•Monitor risk during:• Project preparation• Procurement• Implementation • Contract end•Significant shift on risk framework can be ground for renegotiation
Risk Monitoring
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