richmond metro area economic overview retail merchants association ann battle macheras
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Richmond Metro AreaEconomic OverviewRetail Merchants AssociationAnn Battle MacherasNovember 11, 2011
Overview
• Richmond Area Economic Trends• Labor Market Indicators• Industry Trends• Housing Market Indicators
• Retail Sector Business Activity Index
Richmond MSA Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YoY %
Chg
U.S.Richmond
September 2011US: 1.1%
RIC: -1.4%
Richmond Payroll Employment by Industry
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
1.1
2.1
1.7
1.3
-1.6
-0.1
3.3
2.3
0.9
1.2
-1.5
-1.3
-1.5
-3.3
-3.1
-9.4
-7.9
3.1
0.2
-3.4
-0.3
0.4
-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
TotalNatural Resources & Construction
ManufacturingTrade, Transportation & Utilities
InformationFinancial Activities
Professional & Business ServicesEducation & Health Services
Leisure & HospitalityOther Services
Government
Percent
September 2011U.S.Richmond MSA
Richmond MSA Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Perce
nt
U.S.VirginiaRichmond
September 2011US: 9.1%VA: 6.5%RIC: 7.2%
Richmond Single Family Building Permits
Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0
0.010.020.030.040.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YoY %
Chg
Richmond MSAVirginia
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Richmond MSA Total Richmond MSA-No Distressed SalesVirginia Total Virginia-No Distressed Sales
Richmond House Prices—CoreLogic
Source: CoreLogic
Fifth District Survey of Service Activity
• Survey released monthly—since 1998• Approximately 100 respondents per month• Respond by indicating an ‘increase’, ‘decrease’, or ‘unchanged’.• Index value is percentage reporting increase minus the percentage reporting decrease
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Fifth District Retail
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Diffusion Index3-month Average
Retail Revenues Index
Monthly ValuesAugust: -32September: -10October: -8
Fifth District Retail
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Diffusion Index3-month Average
Retail Revenues Index Retail Employment Index
Rev. Emp.August: -32 -8September: -10 1October: -8 -9
Some Observations• The economy continues to expand, but the pace is slower
than we would like• Job growth has been very soft and unemployment
remains stubbornly high• State and local government will serve as a drag on
employment growth• Stress continues in the housing market with limited
recovery so far• Relative to previous recessions, we might expect this
recovery to remain at a slow pace of growth
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.
Questions?… and thank you!
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