reverse engineering chinese censorship -...

Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1

Gary King2

Institute for Quantitative Social ScienceHarvard University

(Talk at ESRC Research Methods Festival, 8 July 2014)

1Based on joint work with Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts2GaryKing.org

1/29

Papers

An Observational Study:

How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism butSilences Collective Expression (American Political Science Review, May 2013)

Experimental and Participatory Studies:

Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship (Under review)

Copies at GaryKing.org

2/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),

by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,

located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information

(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites

4/29

Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites

hi.baidu 12%

bbs.voc.com.cn 5%

bbs.m4.cn 4%tianya 3%bbs.beijingww.com 2%

Share of Posts in Our Analysis by Internet Content Provider (ICP)

(Plus 59% from Sina Blog)5/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state

2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officials

censor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replaced

Policies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)

Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the Internet

Dissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandals

Disagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right6/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Censorship is not Ambiguous: Example Error Page

8/29

Censorship is not Ambiguous: BBS Error Page

9/29

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are Faster

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”

020

4060

8010

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

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Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internet

individuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;

topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.

(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

What Types of Events Are Censored?

Censorship Magnitude

Density

02

46

810

12

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography

PolicyNews

14/29

What Types of Events Are Censored?

Censorship Magnitude

Popular Book Published in Audio FormatDisney Announced Theme ParkEPA Issues New Rules on LeadChinese Solar Company Announces EarningsChina Puts Nuclear Program on HoldGov't Increases Power PricesJon Hunstman Steps Down as Ambassador to ChinaNews About Iran Nuclear ProgramIndoor Smoking Ban Takes EffectPopular Video Game ReleasedEducation Reform for Migrant ChildrenFood Prices RiseU.S. Military Intervention in Libya

Censorship Magnitude

New Laws on Fifty Cent PartyRush to Buy Salt After Earthquake

Students Throw Shoes at Fang BinXingFuzhou Bombing

Localized Advocacy for Environment LotteryGoogle is Hacked

Collective Anger At Lead Poisoning in JiangsuAi Weiwei Arrested

Pornography Mentioning Popular BookZengcheng Protests

Baidu Copyright LawsuitPornography Disguised as News

Protests in Inner Mongolia

PoliciesNews

Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography

-0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7

14/29

Censoring Collective Action: Riots in Zencheng

010

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Riots in Zengcheng

15/29

Censoring Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’s Arrest

010

2030

40

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Ai Weiwei arrested

16/29

Low Censorship on Policy: One Child

010

2030

40

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Speculation of

Policy Reversal at NPC

17/29

Low Censorship on News: Power Prices

010

2030

4050

6070

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nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Power shortages Gov't raises power prices

to curb demand

18/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation set

ReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each category

Quantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in Chinese

20/29

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

20/29

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented

Probability

Facts Supporting Employers

Facts Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant

20/29

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented

Probability

Facts Supporting Employers

Facts Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant

ReadMeTrue

20/29

Uncensored: Non-Collective Action Posts

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Censored: Collective Action Posts

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)

Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)

Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)

Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to type

Checked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)

Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentives

Procedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in China

Bought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselves

To learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

●

YellowLightFines

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

●

YellowLightFines

●

StockMarketCrash

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

●

YellowLightFines

●

StockMarketCrash

●

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

●

YellowLightFines

●

StockMarketCrash

●

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

●

GenderImbalance

25/29

Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

PanxuProtest

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

●

CorruptionPolicy

●

EliminateGoldenWeek

●

RentalTax

●

YellowLightFines

●

StockMarketCrash

●

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

●

GenderImbalance

●

Li TianyiScandal

25/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

●

PanxuProtest

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

26/29

Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

●

PanxuProtest

●

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

●

Ai WeiweiAlbum

●

Protestsin

Xinjiang

26/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由

“Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”

目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”

目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田

“Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field”

(nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐

“Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹

“River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab”

(irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task:

(1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job,

(2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),

(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,

(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,

(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in Chains

Unambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experiments

Makes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.

Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silent

Applicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censors

Automated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analysts

Predicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorship

Understanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

For more information

GaryKing.org

j.mp/JenPan

j.mp/MollyRoberts

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Appendix

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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

34/29

Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

34/29

Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

This is a city government [Yulin City,Shaanxi] that treats life with contempt, thisis government officials run amuck, a citygovernment without justice, a city govern-ment that delights in that which is vul-gar, a place where officials all have mis-tresses, a city government that is shamelesswith greed, a government that trades dig-nity for power, a government without hu-manity, a government that has no limits onimmorality, a government that goes back onits word, a government that treats kindnesswith ingratitude, a government that caresnothing for posterity. . .

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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State

35/29

Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State

35/29

Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State

The bombing led not only to the tragedy ofhis death but the death of many governmentworkers. Even if we can verify what QianMingqi said on Weibo that the building de-molition caused a great deal of personal dam-age, we should still condemn his extreme actof retribution. . . . The government has con-tinually put forth measures and laws to pro-tect the interests of citizens in building de-molition. And the media has called attentionto the plight of those experiencing housingdemolition. The rate at which compensationfor housing demolition has increased exceedsinflation. In many places, this compensationcan change the fate of an entire family.

35/29