reverse engineering chinese censorship -...
TRANSCRIPT
Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1
Gary King2
Institute for Quantitative Social ScienceHarvard University
(Talk at ESRC Research Methods Festival, 8 July 2014)
1Based on joint work with Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts2GaryKing.org
1/29
Papers
An Observational Study:
How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism butSilences Collective Expression (American Political Science Review, May 2013)
Experimental and Participatory Studies:
Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship (Under review)
Copies at GaryKing.org
2/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),
by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,
located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information
(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites
4/29
Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites
hi.baidu 12%
bbs.voc.com.cn 5%
bbs.m4.cn 4%tianya 3%bbs.beijingww.com 2%
Share of Posts in Our Analysis by Internet Content Provider (ICP)
(Plus 59% from Sina Blog)5/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state
2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officials
censor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replaced
Policies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)
Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the Internet
Dissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandals
Disagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right6/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
Censorship is not Ambiguous: Example Error Page
8/29
Censorship is not Ambiguous: BBS Error Page
9/29
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are Faster
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”
020
4060
8010
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
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nt
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
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nt
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internet
individuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;
topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.
(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
What Types of Events Are Censored?
Censorship Magnitude
Density
02
46
810
12
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography
PolicyNews
14/29
What Types of Events Are Censored?
Censorship Magnitude
Popular Book Published in Audio FormatDisney Announced Theme ParkEPA Issues New Rules on LeadChinese Solar Company Announces EarningsChina Puts Nuclear Program on HoldGov't Increases Power PricesJon Hunstman Steps Down as Ambassador to ChinaNews About Iran Nuclear ProgramIndoor Smoking Ban Takes EffectPopular Video Game ReleasedEducation Reform for Migrant ChildrenFood Prices RiseU.S. Military Intervention in Libya
Censorship Magnitude
New Laws on Fifty Cent PartyRush to Buy Salt After Earthquake
Students Throw Shoes at Fang BinXingFuzhou Bombing
Localized Advocacy for Environment LotteryGoogle is Hacked
Collective Anger At Lead Poisoning in JiangsuAi Weiwei Arrested
Pornography Mentioning Popular BookZengcheng Protests
Baidu Copyright LawsuitPornography Disguised as News
Protests in Inner Mongolia
PoliciesNews
Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography
-0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
14/29
Censoring Collective Action: Riots in Zencheng
010
2030
4050
6070
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Riots in Zengcheng
15/29
Censoring Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’s Arrest
010
2030
40
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Ai Weiwei arrested
16/29
Low Censorship on Policy: One Child
010
2030
40
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Speculation of
Policy Reversal at NPC
17/29
Low Censorship on News: Power Prices
010
2030
4050
6070
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Power shortages Gov't raises power prices
to curb demand
18/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation set
ReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each category
Quantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in Chinese
20/29
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
20/29
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented
Probability
Facts Supporting Employers
Facts Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant
20/29
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented
Probability
Facts Supporting Employers
Facts Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant
ReadMeTrue
20/29
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action Posts
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
Censored: Collective Action Posts
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)
Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)
Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)
Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to type
Checked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)
Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentives
Procedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in China
Bought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselves
To learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
PanxuProtest
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
●
GenderImbalance
25/29
Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
PanxuProtest
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
●
GenderImbalance
●
Li TianyiScandal
25/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
PanxuProtest
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
●
PanxuProtest
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
26/29
Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
CA
Eve
nt −
Non
−C
A E
vent
)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
26/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由
“Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”
目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”
目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田
“Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field”
(nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐
“Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹
“River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab”
(irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task:
(1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job,
(2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),
(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,
(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,
(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in Chains
Unambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experiments
Makes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.
Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silent
Applicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censors
Automated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analysts
Predicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorship
Understanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
For more information
GaryKing.org
j.mp/JenPan
j.mp/MollyRoberts
29/29
Appendix
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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
31/29
Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
31/29
Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
31/29
Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
31/29
Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
32/29
Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
32/29
Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
32/29
Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
32/29
Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
33/29
Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
33/29
Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
33/29
Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
33/29
Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
34/29
Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
34/29
Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
This is a city government [Yulin City,Shaanxi] that treats life with contempt, thisis government officials run amuck, a citygovernment without justice, a city govern-ment that delights in that which is vul-gar, a place where officials all have mis-tresses, a city government that is shamelesswith greed, a government that trades dig-nity for power, a government without hu-manity, a government that has no limits onimmorality, a government that goes back onits word, a government that treats kindnesswith ingratitude, a government that caresnothing for posterity. . .
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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
35/29
Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
35/29
Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
The bombing led not only to the tragedy ofhis death but the death of many governmentworkers. Even if we can verify what QianMingqi said on Weibo that the building de-molition caused a great deal of personal dam-age, we should still condemn his extreme actof retribution. . . . The government has con-tinually put forth measures and laws to pro-tect the interests of citizens in building de-molition. And the media has called attentionto the plight of those experiencing housingdemolition. The rate at which compensationfor housing demolition has increased exceedsinflation. In many places, this compensationcan change the fate of an entire family.
35/29