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Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship 1 Gary King 2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at ESRC Research Methods Festival, 8 July 2014) 1 Based on joint work with Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts 2 GaryKing.org 1/29

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Page 1: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1

Gary King2

Institute for Quantitative Social ScienceHarvard University

(Talk at ESRC Research Methods Festival, 8 July 2014)

1Based on joint work with Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts2GaryKing.org

1/29

Page 2: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Papers

An Observational Study:

How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism butSilences Collective Expression (American Political Science Review, May 2013)

Experimental and Participatory Studies:

Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship (Under review)

Copies at GaryKing.org

2/29

Page 3: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 4: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 5: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),

by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 6: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,

located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 7: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 8: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 9: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information

(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 10: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Censorship

The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:

implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms

A huge censorship organization:

(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership

3/29

Page 11: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites

4/29

Page 12: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites

hi.baidu 12%

bbs.voc.com.cn 5%

bbs.m4.cn 4%tianya 3%bbs.beijingww.com 2%

Share of Posts in Our Analysis by Internet Content Provider (ICP)

(Plus 59% from Sina Blog)5/29

Page 13: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 14: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 15: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 16: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 17: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?

1 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 18: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state

2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 19: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 20: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action

Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 21: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 22: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!

Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 23: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 24: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officials

censor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 25: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 26: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 27: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replaced

Policies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 28: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)

Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 29: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the Internet

Dissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 30: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandals

Disagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 31: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right

6/29

Page 32: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable

Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong

What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right

Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:

measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential

Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:

Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders

A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right6/29

Page 33: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 34: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 35: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 36: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 37: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 38: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps

1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months

2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears

3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)

4 Repeat 11,382,221 times

5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis

7/29

Page 39: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censorship is not Ambiguous: Example Error Page

8/29

Page 40: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censorship is not Ambiguous: BBS Error Page

9/29

Page 41: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are Faster

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

Page 42: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

Page 43: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash

Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis

Days After Post Was Written

Num

ber C

enso

red

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

050

100

150

200

250

10/29

Page 44: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”

020

4060

8010

0

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

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●●

●●

●●

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●●

●●

●●

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●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

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●●●

●●

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●●●●●●●

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●●

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●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

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●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 45: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 46: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

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●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

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●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 47: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

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●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 48: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

●●

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●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

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●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 49: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

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●●

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●●

●●●●

●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 50: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

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●●

●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

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●●

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●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

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●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 51: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●●

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●●●

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●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

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●●

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●●

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●●●

●●

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●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 52: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0

2040

6080

100

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●

●●●●●●

●●●●●●●

●●●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●

●●●●

●●

●●●●

●●

●●

●●●●

●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●

●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Collective Support for Environmental Lottery

Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas

Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst

Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)

11/29

Page 53: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 54: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 55: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 56: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 57: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 58: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 59: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Observational Test 1: Post Volume

Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas

For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude

If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:

1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts

2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

01

23

45

Censorship Magnitude

Density

12/29

Page 60: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 61: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 62: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 63: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internet

individuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 64: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;

topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 65: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.

(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 66: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 67: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 68: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 69: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 70: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 71: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 72: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

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Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

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Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

Page 75: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Classification of Events Generating the Bursts

Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)

1 Collective Action Potential

protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)

2 Criticism of censors

3 Pornography

4 (Other) News

5 Government Policies

13/29

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What Types of Events Are Censored?

Censorship Magnitude

Density

02

46

810

12

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography

PolicyNews

14/29

Page 77: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

What Types of Events Are Censored?

Censorship Magnitude

Popular Book Published in Audio FormatDisney Announced Theme ParkEPA Issues New Rules on LeadChinese Solar Company Announces EarningsChina Puts Nuclear Program on HoldGov't Increases Power PricesJon Hunstman Steps Down as Ambassador to ChinaNews About Iran Nuclear ProgramIndoor Smoking Ban Takes EffectPopular Video Game ReleasedEducation Reform for Migrant ChildrenFood Prices RiseU.S. Military Intervention in Libya

Censorship Magnitude

New Laws on Fifty Cent PartyRush to Buy Salt After Earthquake

Students Throw Shoes at Fang BinXingFuzhou Bombing

Localized Advocacy for Environment LotteryGoogle is Hacked

Collective Anger At Lead Poisoning in JiangsuAi Weiwei Arrested

Pornography Mentioning Popular BookZengcheng Protests

Baidu Copyright LawsuitPornography Disguised as News

Protests in Inner Mongolia

PoliciesNews

Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography

-0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7

14/29

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Censoring Collective Action: Riots in Zencheng

010

2030

4050

6070

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●●

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●●

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●●●●

●●

●●

●●

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Riots in Zengcheng

15/29

Page 79: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censoring Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’s Arrest

010

2030

40

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●

●●

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●●●●●

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Count PublishedCount Censored

Ai Weiwei arrested

16/29

Page 80: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Low Censorship on Policy: One Child

010

2030

40

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●

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●●

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●●●●●●●

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●●●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●●●●

●●

●●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Speculation of

Policy Reversal at NPC

17/29

Page 81: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Low Censorship on News: Power Prices

010

2030

4050

6070

Cou

nt

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

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●●

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●●●

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●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●

●●●

Count PublishedCount Censored

Power shortages Gov't raises power prices

to curb demand

18/29

Page 82: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 83: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 84: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 85: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 86: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 87: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 88: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation set

ReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 89: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each category

Quantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 90: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 91: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Content of Posts

We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese

Standardize encoding of Chinese text

Eliminate punctuation and stop words

Experiment with segmenting characters into words

Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)

Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category

P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)

P(Category)

19/29

Page 92: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in Chinese

20/29

Page 93: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

20/29

Page 94: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented

Probability

Facts Supporting Employers

Facts Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant

20/29

Page 95: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented

Probability

Facts Supporting Employers

Facts Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Workers

Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant

ReadMeTrue

20/29

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Uncensored: Non-Collective Action Posts

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Page 97: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Page 98: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise

21/29

Page 99: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censored: Collective Action Posts

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Page 100: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Page 101: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical

Per

cent

Cen

sore

d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support

Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing

22/29

Page 102: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 103: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 104: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 105: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)

Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 106: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)

Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 107: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)

Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 108: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to type

Checked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 109: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 110: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)

Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 111: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentives

Procedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

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Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in China

Bought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 113: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselves

To learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

Page 114: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Additional Research Designs

1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)

Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)

2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)

Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)

23/29

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Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

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Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

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Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

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Mechanisms of Censorship

24/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

YellowLightFines

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

YellowLightFines

StockMarketCrash

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

YellowLightFines

StockMarketCrash

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

YellowLightFines

StockMarketCrash

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

GenderImbalance

25/29

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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect

● ●

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

Pro

− A

nti)

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

PanxuProtest

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

CorruptionPolicy

EliminateGoldenWeek

RentalTax

YellowLightFines

StockMarketCrash

Investigationof Sichuan

ViceGovernor

GenderImbalance

Li TianyiScandal

25/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

26/29

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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect

● ●0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Cen

sors

hip

Diff

eren

ce (

CA

Eve

nt −

Non

−C

A E

vent

)

PanxuProtest

TibetanSelf−

Immolations

Ai WeiweiAlbum

Protestsin

Xinjiang

26/29

Page 141: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Page 142: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由

“Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”

目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Page 145: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”

目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田

“Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field”

(nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1:

Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐

“Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

Page 154: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship - NCRMeprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3570/1/Gary_King_Reverse_Engineering... · 2014-07-23 · Chinese Censorship The largest selective suppression of human

Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹

“River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab”

(irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2:

Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task:

(1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job,

(2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),

(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,

(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,

(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Evading Automated Review

Example Substitution 1: Homograph

自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)

Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)

和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)

河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)

They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!

The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis

27/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in Chains

Unambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experiments

Makes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.

Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silent

Applicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censors

Automated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analysts

Predicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorship

Understanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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Conclusions

The Goals of Chinese Censorship:

For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:

Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries

New methods developed for:

Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text

28/29

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For more information

GaryKing.org

j.mp/JenPan

j.mp/MollyRoberts

29/29

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Appendix

30/29

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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest

Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data

Mar. 29,5 days prior

Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

31/29

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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement

Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2011

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data

Actual %censorship

Jun. 20,5 days prior

Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

32/29

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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test:

Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion

Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13

−0.

20.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

2012

% o

f Pos

ts C

enso

red

Jan. 28,5 days prior

Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted

Actual %censorship

Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data

Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects

33/29

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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

34/29

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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

34/29

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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State

This is a city government [Yulin City,Shaanxi] that treats life with contempt, thisis government officials run amuck, a citygovernment without justice, a city govern-ment that delights in that which is vul-gar, a place where officials all have mis-tresses, a city government that is shamelesswith greed, a government that trades dig-nity for power, a government without hu-manity, a government that has no limits onimmorality, a government that goes back onits word, a government that treats kindnesswith ingratitude, a government that caresnothing for posterity. . .

34/29

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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State

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The bombing led not only to the tragedy ofhis death but the death of many governmentworkers. Even if we can verify what QianMingqi said on Weibo that the building de-molition caused a great deal of personal dam-age, we should still condemn his extreme actof retribution. . . . The government has con-tinually put forth measures and laws to pro-tect the interests of citizens in building de-molition. And the media has called attentionto the plight of those experiencing housingdemolition. The rate at which compensationfor housing demolition has increased exceedsinflation. In many places, this compensationcan change the fate of an entire family.

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