remedia ana iglesias

1

Exploring the role of stakeholders in mitigation and adaptation decisions

Ana Iglesias, UPM

Remedia Workshop, 8 March 2012, Bilbao

2

Acknowledgements87 scientists Ábalos D, Agulló E, Albiac J, Aranda X, Artetxe A,

Benito-Garzón M, Biel C, Bravo C, Bustamante MA, Castrillón L, Chadwick DR, Chirinda N, Cunningham R, De Herralde F, Del Hierro O, Del Prado A, Doltra J, Domingo F, Durán JM, Fernández J, Fernández Nava Y, Fons, Funes I, Gallejones P, García MA, Garcia-Martinez S, Gómez-Aparicio L, Guimaraes AC, Hernández S, Herrera I, Iglesias A, Kahil MT, Khatun K, Kowalski AS, Lægdsmand M, Lago C, Lechón Y, Marañón E, Martín J, Medina F, Merino P., Milego R, Misselbrook T, Moral R, Moran D, Navas LM, Newbold C J, Ojea E, Olesen JE, Omaña JM, Ormaechea P, Orús F, Oyonarte C, Pardo G, Pardo N, Paredes C, Paredes V, Pascual D, Pérez IA, Perez-Espinosa A, Perez-Murcia MD, Pérez-Priego O, Pinto M, Pinto M, Pla E, Quiroga G, Quiroga S, Romero L, Ruiz JJ, Ruiz-Benito P, Sáez R, Sanchez B, Sánchez J, Sánchez LF, Sánchez ML, Sánchez-Cañete E, Sanz MJ, Sanz-Cobeña A, Savé R, Scholefield D, Serrano-Ortiz P, Tapia J, Topp C, Vallejo A, Were A, Wu L, Zavala MA

3

technology, ec. efficiency

information, knowledgegovernance

forests, drylands

foodenergy

adaptationmotivation barriers

A view of the problem from the academic side

MO

DEL

S

EXPE

RIM

ENTS

SURV

EYS

4

Water Drylands, C storage 20-30% of the terrestrial global total Forests and trees contain 70% C of total vegetation global Inventario Forestal Nacional Español (IFN) y del CORINE Land

Cover Basque Country grasslands (about 30 % of the total area) Mitigation policies in the Huesca province of Aragon. Environmental policies: emission taxes, input-based taxes

(irrigation water and nitrogen), reduction of irrigation water by 25 percent, improved feed of swine herd, and reduction of swine herd by 15 percent

There is not a unique preferred measure. Local characteristics and social acceptability Many economic assessment: models, assumptions

The south of the north

6

Iglesias et al. (2005-2012)

Projects: PICCMAT, Smart Soils, Animal Change, Climate Cost

Understand social, institutional and behavioural motivation and barriers

Participatory evaluation Economic valuation (efficiency, equity) Understand cost of action and cost of inaction

Influences on mitigation decisions(Iglesias, Medina, PICCMAT, 2009;

Iglesias et al., ANIMAL CHANGE, ongoing)

Knowledge, information

Mitigation action

Motivation

Barriers

Tools: Behavioural economics

Bar

riers

to

impl

emen

tatio

n

Potential benefit of the measures

Very small Very large

None

Very high

no

highno

low medium

9

Guidelines for improving SOC(Iglesias, Sanchez, Quiroga, SMART SOILS, ongoing)

Full costs of climate change =

cost of inactioneconomic costs (impacts, baseline)

- cost of action+ costs of mitigation + costs of adaptation - benefits from mitigation - benefits from

adaptation

10

Iglesias et al., 2011, Looking into the future of agriculture, European Review of Agricultural Economics, 2011, Ciscar et al., 2011, PNAS --- Project: ClimateCost

11

12

Scenario A1B_avIrrigation water demand change (% of baseline)

0 2 10 20 30 80

Adaptation 1&3

13

Scenario A1B_avNitrogen fertiliser change (% of baseline)

0 25 50 100 200 300

Adaptation 2

14

Reasons to be optimistic? (my own view)

Optimistic Pesimistic

Technology x

Competitiveness, efficiency x x

Trade and prices x x

Equity x

Information, knowledge x

Mitigation policy x x

Adaptation policy x x

Lack of Governance x

A view of the role of REMEDIA and how may influence mitigation decisions

Societal values

Legisla-tion

Research progra-mmes

Economic goals

Political attention

Research funding

Human resources

Scientific know-ledge

Technical expertise

Perceived solutions

Interested parties

Public discourse

Presence of leader

ana.iglesias@upm.es

thank you

Presentation made at the:REMEDIA Workshop, Bilbao, 8 March 2012

16