red light cameras: an analysis of their effectiveness robert cappetta, phd professor of mathematics...

Red Light Cameras: An Analysis of Their Effectiveness

Robert Cappetta, PhDProfessor of Mathematics

College of DuPage

• Special Thanks to David Kidwell and his team at the Chicago Tribune for breaking this story and continuing the investigation since February 2012. Many of the details in this presentation are excerpts of his many pieces.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/redlight/

• Additional thanks to Dominique Lord and Srinivas Reddy Geedipally from Texas A & M for performing the study analyzing the effectiveness of the Chicago red light camera.

https://ceprofs.civil.tamu.edu/dlord/Papers/Chicago_Tribune_Final_Report.pdf

Texas Transportation Institute

• Red light cameras provide a continuous enforcement program freeing police to concentrate their efforts on possibly more important duties.

• When the cameras are used at intersections with many right-angle collisions or many infractions, dramatic improvement can be seen.

http://tti.tamu.edu/group/stsc/files/2011/03/Red-light-camera-effectiveness-070610-w-Garland-correction1.pdf

TTI Conclusions

• Number of crashes caused by running red lights is reduced. Fewer right-angle collisions

• Increase in rear-end collisions• May or may not reduce total crashes• Fewer severe crashes with more less-severe

crashes.• Number of violations decrease over time

Yellow Light Mental Math

Yellow Light Mental Math

• A driver approaches an intersection and a yellow light appears. – Does her speed permit her to stop safely before

reaching the intersection?– Is another motorist following too closely to enable

her to stop safely?– Is the yellow light long enough to enable her to

enter or clear the intersection on yellow? – Does she have prior tickets?– Is there a red light camera at the intersection?

Chicago

• Largest Red Light Camera program in the country

• Shortest allowable Yellow Light time• Dire fiscal condition with the public schools

planning to lay off hundreds of teachers• State without a budget since July 1 with no end

in sight• Chicago recently “sold” its parking meters in a

deal that most believe was a disaster

Illinois Governors

Rod Blagojevich2002 – 2009ImpeachedConvicted of Corruption in 2011

Illinois Governors

George Ryan1999 – 2004Convicted of Racketeering for Activities in Office

Illinois Governors

Dan Walker1973 – 1977Pled Guilty to Bank Fraud in 1987

Illinois Governors

Otto Kerner1961 – 1968Horse Racing Bribery ScandalConvicted of Mail Fraud, Conspiracy and Perjury

Quantitative Literacy and Citizenship

Many adults, and especially college graduates, are very likely to assume positions in their communities and in professional organizations where quantitative literacy will come into play and may even be essential for effectiveness. A quantitative literacy requirement can thus be expected to enhance the quality of citizens. MAA – 1994

Quantitative Literacy and Citizenship

“Quantitative Literacy can be defined as the level of mathematical knowledge and skills required of all citizens” – John Dossey, former president of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics and mathematics educator at Illinois State University.

Lutsky (2006)

Quantitative Literacy is less about the manipulation of numbers than it is about the evaluation and construction of arguments

In a study of student writing, one in three students at a highly selective college failed to use any quantitative reasoning when writing about subjects in which quantitative evidence should have played a central role

Failure of Quantitative Literacy

Parking Meter Scandal

Chicago has over 36,000 parking meters.The city entered into an agreement to lease the meters for 75 years receiving $1.16 Billion.

What was the real value of the meters?

Parking Meter Scandal

Chicago has over 36,000 parking meters.The city entered into an agreement to lease the meters for 75 years receiving $1.16 Billion.

What was the real value of the meters?

Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone claims the meters were worth at least $5 Billion.

Costs

$6.50 per hour for parking in the Loop.

$4.00 per hour for parking in the central business district outside the Loop.

$2.00 per hour in the neighborhoods

Meters operate from 8AM to 10PM seven days a week. 24-hour meters in the Loop.

Assumptions

4,000 meters in the Loop6,000 additional meters downtown26,000 meters in the neighborhoods

Assumptions

4,000 meters in the Loop6,000 additional meters downtown26,000 meters in the neighborhoods

What could the yearly revenue be?

Projection

Projection

Assuming 250 work days per year, the total yearly projection is $241 Million

Red Light Cameras

What is the Primary Goal of Installing Red Light Cameras

What is the Primary Goal of Installing Red Light Cameras

Reducing Accidents?

Reducing Injuries?

Generating Revenue?

Political Argument

• In 2011, the police superintendent supported the red light camera program claiming that the number of pedestrian fatalities in Chicago was far greater than those in New York.

• This statement contradicted previous reports from the City of Chicago which showed the pedestrian fatality rate was much lower in Chicago than New York and other large cities.

Do Red Light Cameras Reduce Accidents?

• If there are fewer accidents after the cameras are implemented, is that sufficient evidence to conclude that the cameras are effective?

Do Red Light Cameras Reduce Accidents?

• If there are fewer accidents after the cameras are implemented, is that sufficient evidence to conclude that the cameras are effective?

• How would you design a study to see whether or not the number of accidents was reduced?

Results

• Mayor claims a 47% decrease in T-Bone collisions after implementing the red light camera system.

Results

• Mayor claims a 47% decrease in T-Bone collisions after implementing the red light camera system.

• Texas A & M study shows a 15% decrease in T-bone collisions after implementation.

Results

• Mayor claims a 47% decrease in T-Bone collisions after implementing the red light camera system.

• Texas A & M study shows a 15% decrease in T-bone collisions after implementation.

• The same study shows 22% increase in rear-end collisions after implementation

Results

• Mayor claims a 47% decrease in T-Bone collisions after implementing the red light camera system.

• Texas A & M study shows a 15% decrease in T-bone collisions after implementation.

• The same study shows 22% increase in rear-end collisions after implementation

Despite the increase in accidents, might the red light cameras be effective?

Results

• If an intersection has many T-Bone collisions, reducing the number of these dangerous collisions might be beneficial despite increased rear-end collisions.

Results

• If an intersection has many T-Bone collisions, reducing the number of these dangerous collisions might be beneficial despite increased rear-end collisions.

• 73 of the 190 intersections in the study had fewer than four injuries before the cameras were installed. Joseph Schofer, traffic expert from Northwestern U, claims that cameras cause harm rather than good at these intersections.

Results

• In February 2012, the mayor of Chicago claimed that traffic deaths were down 60% in the areas around the red light cameras.

Results

• In February 2012, the mayor of Chicago claimed that traffic deaths were down 60% in the areas around the red light cameras.

• An independent investigation from the Chicago Tribune found that there was actually a 26% reduction.

Results

• In February 2012, the mayor of Chicago claimed that traffic deaths were down 60% in the areas around the red light cameras.

• An independent investigation from the Chicago Tribune found that there was actually a 26% reduction.

• Despite that significant decline, the investigators do not credit the cameras for the change.

Do Chicagoans Support Red Light Cameras?

Do Chicagoans Support Red Light Cameras?

• 49% think the program should be eliminated.• 25% think the number of cameras should be

reduced.• 11% believe the program is functioning

effectively• 6% believe the city should add more cameras.– APC Research poll of likely Chicago voters. Surveys

conducted January 22-27, 2015

Yellow Light Times

The Institute of Transportation Engineers uses the following formula to determine an appropriate amount of time for a yellow light.

Yellow Light Times

The Institute of Transportation Engineers uses the following formula to determine an appropriate amount of time for a yellow light.

Yellow Light Time Variations

Yellow Light Time Variations

Chicago assumes that the 85th percentile speed on a 30 mph road is 30 mph.Chicago also uses a non-standard deceleration rate in the computation of the yellow light time.

Changing the Game

• Once revenues declined at certain locations, changes were made to the enforcement mechanisms.

• For example, cameras were re-focused to look at “No Right on Red” violators, rather than standard red light violations.

• This results in spikes of new citations.

Yellow Light Controversy

• When Chicago switched vendors from RedFlex to Xerox State and Local Traffics, it permitted the new vendor to write tickets for cameras with yellow light times less than 3 seconds

Yellow Light Controversy

• When Chicago switched vendors from RedFlex to Xerox State and Local Traffics, it permitted the new vendor to write tickets for cameras with yellow light times less than 3 seconds.

• The City recognized the error but refused to refund the $7.7 million collected using this improper approach.

Research on Yellow Light Times

• Texas A & M researchers claim that increasing yellow light times by 0.5 seconds results in a 25% decrease in accidents and a 40% decrease in red light citations.

• Institute of Transportation Engineers claim that the prevailing speed rather than the posted speed should be used to set yellow light times.

Bribery Scandal

Ex RedFlex Exec Pleads Guilty to Helping Orchestrate $2M Bribery Scheme

Chicago Events

• Finley pled guilty to running a bribery scheme to steer Chicago red light camera business to her corporation.

• She hired Martin O’Malley as a middle man. O’Malley gave John Bills, former managing deputy commissioner of transportation for the City of Chicago, with hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, vacation trips and personal gifts.

Chicago Events• O'Malley has admitted paying Bills a total of

$570,000 in cash from 2004 to 2012, in addition to paying for some of Bills' personal debts and even buying a Gilbert, Ariz., condominium for Bills' use. He also wrote checks to cover Bills' retirement party from the city as well as to an undisclosed "political organization," according to his plea agreement. O'Malley then included those costs on his expense reports, which Redflex reimbursed.

$ 2M Bribery Scheme Details

• $1500 paid for each camera installed• 17 trips including World Series, Super Bowl, golf

outings.• Cars• Condominiums

To this day, the city cannot explain why the cameras are where they are. The city has sued the company because the whole program was built on a bribery scheme. Yet the cameras are still there.

Ohio Events

• Finley admitted that she participated in a scheme in which the company made campaign contributions to elected public officials in Columbus and Cincinnati in return for keeping red-light camera contracts.

New Orleans Connection

• A consultant for Chicago's embattled red-light camera vendor — under scrutiny for his $570,000 in commissions and his relationship to the city manager who oversaw the contract — is also tied to another deal investigated in an ongoing federal corruption probe in Louisiana. – David Kidwell – October 22, 2012

Stock Prices• RedFlex is traded on the Australian Securities. • In November 2005, the value per share was

3.446 Australian Dollars.• On November 18, 2015 the value plummeted

to 0.32 Australian Dollars.

My Story

Political Ramifications

• Many aldermen claim that the red light cameras are a regressive tax that unfairly affects low-income voters.

• If a person cannot pay the $100 fine, late fees double and triple the original fine.

• Poor citizens risk losing driving privileges if they cannot pay the fees.

Political Ramifications

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia

Jesus “Chuy” Garcia promised to remove the city's controversial red light cameras on his first day in office, casting the automated ticketing program as a “rip-off” effort from Mayor Rahm Emanuel.Garcia didn't specify how the city might recoup nearly $70 million a year in lost revenue from the camera-generated tickets

Election Results

Future of RedFlex

• Rail Crossing Cameras• School Bus Cameras• Construction Zone Speed Cameras• Stop Sign Cameras in Areas with Many

Pedestrians– To their credit, they claim that their cameras work

best in areas with many accidents.

Lord and Geedipally Results

In the naïve analysis of the Chicago data–9% reduction in total injury crashes–41% reduction in right-angle and

turning injury crashes–61% increase in rear-end injury

collisions

Lord and Geedipally Results

Using the more sophisticated Empirical-Bayes model with the reference group of Chicago data – captures local and regional changes–5% increase in total injury crashes (not

significant)–15% reduction in right-angle and turning

injury crashes (significant)–22% increase in rear-end injury collisions

(significant)

Lord and Geedipally Results

In the naïve analysis of the Chicago data–9% reduction in total injury crashes–41% reduction in right-angle and

turning injury crashes–61% increase in rear-end injury

collisions

Lord and Geedipally Results

In the naïve analysis of the Chicago data–9% reduction in total injury crashes–41% reduction in right-angle and

turning injury crashes–61% increase in rear-end injury

collisions

Conclusions

• Has the red light program reduced accidents?–T-bone collisions have been reduced

but rear end collisions have increased.

Conclusions

• Has the red light program reduced accidents?–T-bone collisions have been reduced but

rear end collisions have increased.• Has the red light camera system reduced

injuries?–At some intersections that had many

accidents previously, maybe.

Conclusions

• Has the Chicago red light camera program increased revenue?–Yes. At least $600M since the

inception of the program in 2003. Current estimates are $70M per year.

Next Story

• Speed Cameras in school zones and park zones designed to make area safer.

• City has collected over $81M in two years.• $34M came from only 15 cameras,• City must return $2.4M to drivers who

received tickets at night, during holiday periods and near closed parks.

Questions?

Thank You

Robert Cappetta, PhDProfessor of MathematicsCollege of DuPagecappetta@cod.edumathbobcod@gmail.com

Slides available at sites.google.com/site/RWCAMATYC/files