recent developments and prospects for pv in australia · solar cities $75m over 5 years demonstrate...
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Recent developments and
prospects for PV in Australia
Muriel Watt
Australian PV Association
Australia-Germany Seminar
13th October 2011
Outline
Market Developments
Policy support
Future prospects
Expectations / Trends
Australian-German R&D Collaboration
Market
Developments
Photo: Adelaide Zoo
Adelaide Solar City
Australian PV Market
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cu
mu
lati
ve k
W
off-grid domestic off-grid non-domestic grid-connected distributed grid-connected power stations
Annual installations
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MW
Australia in the top 10 for
installations (PVPS, Photon International)
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1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
An
nu
al
MW
In
sta
lled
Australia
Germany
USA
Japan
Spain
Italy
Policy Support Adelaide showground 1MW
(First Solar modules, installed by Solar Shop)
Australian Market Drivers
Solar Credits (X3 RECs)
State Feed-in Tariffs
Solar Schools
Solar Flagship – 150MW single axis tracking, BP Solar panels
Commercial sector interest increasing
+
10-20% annual electricity price increases
RET Operation STC market
LGC market
Small RE Systems and Solar
Credits
SHW was dominant REC creator last
year (45%)
PV also surged (14%) due to SHCP &
Solar Credits:
Date
installed 2009 – 11 2011 - 12 2012 - 13
From 1 July
2013
Multiplier 5 3 2 No multiplier
(1)
Solar Cities $75M over 5 years
demonstrate high penetration of
solar, energy efficiency, smart
metering
improve market for distributed
generation, demand side energy
Adelaide, Townsville, Blacktown,
Alice Springs, Central Victoria,
Perth, Coburg:
◦ Information
◦ PV, SHW
◦ Energy efficiency & demand
management
◦ TOU meters and displays
◦ Demonstration systems
Desert Knowledge Solar Centre
Alice Springs Solar City
National Solar Schools Program
$489 million - all schools eligible
Grants up to $50,000 to install up to 2 kW PV and:
◦ lighting upgrades
◦ sky lights
◦ shade awnings
◦ solar hot water systems
◦ rainwater tanks
Many schools installing >2 kW Portland Primary School
Photo: Heather Archison
150 MW Moree Solar Farm (concept)
Solar Flagships
• 1 X 150 MW PV
power stations • BP Solar modules
• Fotowatia trackers
• Pacific Hydro installation
• 1 X 250 MW
proposed 2nd round
Source: BP Solar
State & Territory Feed in Tariffs
State Size limit Rate
A$/kWh
Duration Type
ACT 1:1 proposed
NT 1:1
Vic 5 0.25 15 Net
SA 10 per phase 0.22 20 Net
NSW
WA Diesel grid
areas
1:1
Qld 5 0.44 20 Net
Future Prospects 305 kWp PV system on Alice Springs Crown Casino
(Photo: SunPower Corp)
Australian PV Market now at
the Crossroads
FiTs ending
Solar Credits reducing
Solar Schools & Solar Cities winding
down
Issues of quality
Worries about fire
Restrictions from network operators
(main grid) and generators (diesel grids)
The good news
PV prices going down
Electricity prices going up
We have begun to reach grid parity
especially if Solar Credits included
Parity:
PV LCOE = Retail electricity price
PV life is 25 yrs
Australian PV module price trends
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1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$/W
p
Typical module price Best price
Current A$
Grid System Price Trend
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$/W
p
Current A$ (no RECs)
Residential PV systems
Awareness high but:
◦ Perception of high cost & low abatement
◦ Little understanding of parity
◦ Focus on export price
◦ Want payback in <10yrs
◦ Industry ask is 1:1 for import : export
IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series
Residential System Price trends
and Grid Parity Projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
2011 c
/ k
Wh
Sydney NPV Grid Electricity - High NPV Grid Electricity - Low Annual Grid Electricity - High
Annual Grid Electricity - Low Brisbane Melbourne
Module price $A1.30/Wp
Parity sensitivities - Sydney
Cost Breakdown 1.5kW
Residential System
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Standardised System Individual Design
LC
OE
c/k
Wh
2011 $
GST
End System Channel Costs
System Installation Costs
Power BOS
Structural and Support CAPEX
Distributor Channel Costs
PV Equipment Cost (Landed Price)
LCOE
Sensitivities for residential
systems
IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series
Shell Harbour Services Club
Uni of NSW
Commercial PV Systems
Alice Springs Crown Casino
(Photo: SunPower Corporation)
Commercial System Price trends
and Grid Parity Projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
2011 c
/ k
Wh
NPV Grid Electricity - High NPV Grid Electricity - Low Annual Grid Electricity - High Annual Grid Electricity - Low
Sydney Brisbane Melbourne
Commercial system sensitivity
to module cost
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4
LC
OE
c/k
Wh
Module Cost ($/Wp)
LCOE - Individual Design
LCOE - Standardised System
Issues now for residential and
commercial PV in Australia
One of the 1st countries to reach parity but:
inflexible coal generation base makes us least able to accommodate PV
NEM designed for central generation
Monopoly distribution businesses
No incentive to value distributed generation
Hence export offers at wholesale rate
Favours own use & smaller systems
Utility-scale PV systems
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
2011 c
/kW
h
0% annual efficiency improvement 2% annual efficiency improvement 4% annual efficiency improvement
NPV (NEM - Reference) NPV (NEM - Core Policy) NPV (NEM - High Price)
We can reach > 4GW by 2020!
15% annual
growth
400MW from Flagships
Over 1 GW already
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Cu
mm
ula
tive k
W
Australian Solar Institute
R&D Collaboration with Germany
ASI – Strategic Focus Areas R&D Investment, Skills Development and
Knowledge Building
The Australian Solar Institute
• Australian Government initiative for R&D into PV and CST
• R&D projects in research institutions and companies around Australia and internationally
• cA$200m portfolio of solar R&D projects leveraged by c$66m of Australian Government funding
• Funding leverage from industry, research institutions & State Governments at an average ratio of 2:1 – up to 5:1
• ASI-funded projects support over 100 researchers
• Australian Government’s A$1.5 billion Solar Flagships Program - disseminating economic and technical learnings
• International engagement – U.S. – Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (USASEC); Fraunhofer Institute MoU; DLR MoU; strategic engagement with Asia
• Will be consolidated within the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) from July 2012
Collaboration with Germany
Funding collaborative R&D projects involving Australian researchers and German industry
Memoranda of Understanding to extend collaboration between Australian Solar research institutions and German counterparts
ASI and Fraunhofer Institute Solar Energy
ASI and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft - und Raumfahrt (DLR)
Funding Programs
The ASI is seeking highly meritorious
projects to fund as Australia-Germany
Collaborative Solar R&D Projects
Applications will be reviewed by the ASI's
Research Advisory Committee (RAC) at
regular intervals
Further details
www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au
ASI Contact
Olivia Coldrey
Investment Director
Australian Solar Institute
(61 2) 4960 6302
www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au
The Australian Photovoltaics
Association
80 members – research, industry, government
PV industry development
Policy analysis
Collaborative R&D local – incl. Solar Access & Council PV Guidelines, FiT
analyses
International via IEA PVPS – incl. PV in Smart Grids, Developing Countries
Standards & performance
Information and advocacy Annual PV Report
PV analysis & strategy papers
www.apva.org.au
APVA Reports:
www.apva.org.au
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