Recent developments and

prospects for PV in Australia

Muriel Watt

Australian PV Association

Australia-Germany Seminar

13th October 2011

Outline

Market Developments

Policy support

Future prospects

Expectations / Trends

Australian-German R&D Collaboration

Market

Developments

Photo: Adelaide Zoo

Adelaide Solar City

Australian PV Market

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off-grid domestic off-grid non-domestic grid-connected distributed grid-connected power stations

Annual installations

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Australia in the top 10 for

installations (PVPS, Photon International)

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Australia

Germany

USA

Japan

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Policy Support Adelaide showground 1MW

(First Solar modules, installed by Solar Shop)

Australian Market Drivers

Solar Credits (X3 RECs)

State Feed-in Tariffs

Solar Schools

Solar Flagship – 150MW single axis tracking, BP Solar panels

Commercial sector interest increasing

+

10-20% annual electricity price increases

RET Operation STC market

LGC market

Small RE Systems and Solar

Credits

SHW was dominant REC creator last

year (45%)

PV also surged (14%) due to SHCP &

Solar Credits:

Date

installed 2009 – 11 2011 - 12 2012 - 13

From 1 July

2013

Multiplier 5 3 2 No multiplier

(1)

Solar Cities $75M over 5 years

demonstrate high penetration of

solar, energy efficiency, smart

metering

improve market for distributed

generation, demand side energy

Adelaide, Townsville, Blacktown,

Alice Springs, Central Victoria,

Perth, Coburg:

◦ Information

◦ PV, SHW

◦ Energy efficiency & demand

management

◦ TOU meters and displays

◦ Demonstration systems

Desert Knowledge Solar Centre

Alice Springs Solar City

National Solar Schools Program

$489 million - all schools eligible

Grants up to $50,000 to install up to 2 kW PV and:

◦ lighting upgrades

◦ sky lights

◦ shade awnings

◦ solar hot water systems

◦ rainwater tanks

Many schools installing >2 kW Portland Primary School

Photo: Heather Archison

150 MW Moree Solar Farm (concept)

Solar Flagships

• 1 X 150 MW PV

power stations • BP Solar modules

• Fotowatia trackers

• Pacific Hydro installation

• 1 X 250 MW

proposed 2nd round

Source: BP Solar

State & Territory Feed in Tariffs

State Size limit Rate

A$/kWh

Duration Type

ACT 1:1 proposed

NT 1:1

Vic 5 0.25 15 Net

SA 10 per phase 0.22 20 Net

NSW

WA Diesel grid

areas

1:1

Qld 5 0.44 20 Net

Future Prospects 305 kWp PV system on Alice Springs Crown Casino

(Photo: SunPower Corp)

Australian PV Market now at

the Crossroads

FiTs ending

Solar Credits reducing

Solar Schools & Solar Cities winding

down

Issues of quality

Worries about fire

Restrictions from network operators

(main grid) and generators (diesel grids)

The good news

PV prices going down

Electricity prices going up

We have begun to reach grid parity

especially if Solar Credits included

Parity:

PV LCOE = Retail electricity price

PV life is 25 yrs

Australian PV module price trends

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p

Typical module price Best price

Current A$

Grid System Price Trend

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$/W

p

Current A$ (no RECs)

Residential PV systems

Awareness high but:

◦ Perception of high cost & low abatement

◦ Little understanding of parity

◦ Focus on export price

◦ Want payback in <10yrs

◦ Industry ask is 1:1 for import : export

IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

Residential System Price trends

and Grid Parity Projections

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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

2011 c

/ k

Wh

Sydney NPV Grid Electricity - High NPV Grid Electricity - Low Annual Grid Electricity - High

Annual Grid Electricity - Low Brisbane Melbourne

Module price $A1.30/Wp

Parity sensitivities - Sydney

Cost Breakdown 1.5kW

Residential System

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Standardised System Individual Design

LC

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c/k

Wh

2011 $

GST

End System Channel Costs

System Installation Costs

Power BOS

Structural and Support CAPEX

Distributor Channel Costs

PV Equipment Cost (Landed Price)

LCOE

Sensitivities for residential

systems

IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

Shell Harbour Services Club

Uni of NSW

Commercial PV Systems

Alice Springs Crown Casino

(Photo: SunPower Corporation)

Commercial System Price trends

and Grid Parity Projections

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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

2011 c

/ k

Wh

NPV Grid Electricity - High NPV Grid Electricity - Low Annual Grid Electricity - High Annual Grid Electricity - Low

Sydney Brisbane Melbourne

Commercial system sensitivity

to module cost

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0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4

LC

OE

c/k

Wh

Module Cost ($/Wp)

LCOE - Individual Design

LCOE - Standardised System

Issues now for residential and

commercial PV in Australia

One of the 1st countries to reach parity but:

inflexible coal generation base makes us least able to accommodate PV

NEM designed for central generation

Monopoly distribution businesses

No incentive to value distributed generation

Hence export offers at wholesale rate

Favours own use & smaller systems

Utility-scale PV systems

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25

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

2011 c

/kW

h

0% annual efficiency improvement 2% annual efficiency improvement 4% annual efficiency improvement

NPV (NEM - Reference) NPV (NEM - Core Policy) NPV (NEM - High Price)

We can reach > 4GW by 2020!

15% annual

growth

400MW from Flagships

Over 1 GW already

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Australian Solar Institute

R&D Collaboration with Germany

ASI – Strategic Focus Areas R&D Investment, Skills Development and

Knowledge Building

The Australian Solar Institute

• Australian Government initiative for R&D into PV and CST

• R&D projects in research institutions and companies around Australia and internationally

• cA$200m portfolio of solar R&D projects leveraged by c$66m of Australian Government funding

• Funding leverage from industry, research institutions & State Governments at an average ratio of 2:1 – up to 5:1

• ASI-funded projects support over 100 researchers

• Australian Government’s A$1.5 billion Solar Flagships Program - disseminating economic and technical learnings

• International engagement – U.S. – Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (USASEC); Fraunhofer Institute MoU; DLR MoU; strategic engagement with Asia

• Will be consolidated within the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) from July 2012

Collaboration with Germany

Funding collaborative R&D projects involving Australian researchers and German industry

Memoranda of Understanding to extend collaboration between Australian Solar research institutions and German counterparts

ASI and Fraunhofer Institute Solar Energy

ASI and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft - und Raumfahrt (DLR)

Funding Programs

The ASI is seeking highly meritorious

projects to fund as Australia-Germany

Collaborative Solar R&D Projects

Applications will be reviewed by the ASI's

Research Advisory Committee (RAC) at

regular intervals

Further details

www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au

ASI Contact

Olivia Coldrey

Investment Director

Australian Solar Institute

(61 2) 4960 6302

www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au

The Australian Photovoltaics

Association

80 members – research, industry, government

PV industry development

Policy analysis

Collaborative R&D local – incl. Solar Access & Council PV Guidelines, FiT

analyses

International via IEA PVPS – incl. PV in Smart Grids, Developing Countries

Standards & performance

Information and advocacy Annual PV Report

PV analysis & strategy papers

www.apva.org.au

APVA Reports:

www.apva.org.au