recent birth trends from a state and national perspective: the case of arizona presented by: khaleel...
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Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective: The
Case of Arizona
Presented by:
Khaleel S. Hussaini PhDBureau Chief, Public Health Statistics
http://www.azdhs.gov/phs/phstats/ http://www.azdhs.gov/plan/
Division of Public Health Preparedness
So what’s the story in Arizona?• Basic population structure of women of child-bearing age in Arizona is
different than the US.
• Declines in fertility rates, birth rates are not only attributable to individual fertility decisions but a variety of factors such as socio-cultural, politico-legal, and economic reasons.
• A recent report by the Pew Research Center linked the decline in fertility to the economic recession linking state-level economic decline with state-level fertility decline. (Livingston 2011).
• The report also found that Hispanics’ fertility rate fell more than other race-ethnic groups as this group were most affected by the recession.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
General Fertility Rates for Arizona and the U.S. 2000-2011
AZ (15-44 yrs) US (15-44 yrs) AZ (15-19 yrs) US (15-19 yrs)
Ra
te p
er
10
00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1.98 1.94 1.881.77
1.86 1.84
3.25 3.25
2.98
2.66
2.24 2.23
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Arizona Residents
All others Hispanic
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
84985 8521387379
90783 9339695798
10
20
42
10
26
87 99215
92616
87053 85190 85725
0.00% 0.27%
2.54%
3.90%
2.88%2.57%
6.52%
0.63%
-3.38%
-6.65%-6.01%
-2.14%
0.63%
Arizona Resident Births (2000-2012)
Number of births %change
# o
f R
es
ide
nt
Bir
ths
% C
ha
ng
e in
Re
sid
en
t B
irth
s
Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0.00%
3.57%2.81%
8.35%
4.40%3.27%
6.42%
1.94%
-6.76%
-10.03%-10.50%
-5.64%
2.74%
-2.27%
0.58%
1.76% 1.89% 1.92%
7.99%
-0.31% -0.33%
-4.08%
-2.81%
-0.42%
0.85%
Percent change in Arizona Resident Births by Hispanic and Non-Hispanics
All others Hispanic
%C
ha
ng
e
Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008
Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0.00%
10.06%
8.43%
10.23%
5.73%
0.00%
4.63%
7.55%
-6.71%
-9.54%
-11.99%
-5.51%
3.13%
10.07%
4.71%
1.84%
6.76%
8.29%
-1.14%
3.86%
2.44%
1.07%
-0.14%
Percent Change in Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS) births by Race/Ethnicity
All others (AHCCCS Births) Hispanic (AHCCCS Births)
So what next?
• Does the economy argument hold true for Arizona?
• Is this a statistical anomaly (noise, over/under-estimation of denominators for certain groups etcetera)?
• Perhaps it is related to “Public Health Prevention” efforts?
• Need more investigation that utilizes individual fertility behavior models and aggregate fertility data to explain the “story”?
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