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11.220 Quantitative Reasoning & Statistical Methods for Planners I Spring 2009

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Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Ezra Glenn

February 2, 2009

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Cats

“High-rise syndrome in cats”, M.O. Whitney and C. J. Mehlhaff, Journal of American Veterinary Medical Association, 1987; 191(11):1399-403.

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Cats

●

●

●

●

●●

●

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cats Falling from NYC High−Rises

[after Diamond (1988) and Whitlock & Schluter (2008)]Floors

Inju

ries

per

Cat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7−8 9−32

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Cats

floors samples1 02 83 144 275 346 21

7-8 99-32 13

Table: Number of Samples Collected by Height of Building

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Cats

●

●

●

●

●●

●

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Cats Falling from NYC High−Rises

[after Diamond (1988) and Whitlock & Schluter (2008)]Floors

Inju

ries

per

Cat

1 2 3 4 5 6 7−8 9−32

n= 8

n= 14

n= 27

n= 34

n= 21 n= 9

n= 13

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

CDC Obesity Maps: Percentage of Adults with BMI ≥ 30

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand theirscale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and picturesmeasure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning conceptsgather, manage, and document data and sourcesvisualize complex data and relationshipsstate and investigate research hypothesesrecognize and control for random chance, and distill from ithints of meaning where possibledeal with uncertainty, both practical and existentialthink critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide varietyof audiences about quantitative information, statisticalanalysis, and scientific findings

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to yourown work, and to have fun.

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to:

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to yourown work, and to have fun.

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to: develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand their scale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and pictures measure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning concepts gather, manage, and document data and sources visualize complex data and relationships state and investigate research hypotheses recognize and control for random chance, and distill from it hints of meaning where possible deal with uncertainty, both practical and existential think critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide variety of audiences about quantitative information, statistical analysis, and scientific findings

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods

Goals

Together in this class, we will learn to: develop an intuitive sense of numbers and understand their scale and meaning through comparisons, stories, and pictures measure (or estimate) difficult-to-quantify planning concepts gather, manage, and document data and sources visualize complex data and relationships state and investigate research hypotheses recognize and control for random chance, and distill from it hints of meaning where possible deal with uncertainty, both practical and existential think critically about the limitations of science andquantitative analysiscommunicate with integrity and persuasion to a wide variety of audiences about quantitative information, statistical analysis, and scientific findings

I also expect you to think about ways to apply all of this to your own work, and to have fun.

Ezra Glenn Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods